The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.2 goals and a 22% chance of exactly three goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.7% probability, and the match outcome favoured by the model is an away win. CSKA Sofia, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, averages one goal scored and one conceded. Ludogorets, on the road and facing a similar side, averages only 0.33 goals scored but concedes two. Home win probability stands at 22%, a draw at 24%, and an away win at 54%. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Under 6.5 (95.4%), Away +2 handicap (90.5%), Under 5.5 (89.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (87.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (85.8%), and Away over 0.5 goals (missed at 86.4%). Recent form shows CSKA Sofia coming off a 0-3 loss, while Ludogorets remain unbeaten in five matches, suggesting a resilient away side.
Results analysis
CSKA Sofia finished 0-0 against Ludogorets (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 22% home win, 24% draw and 54% away win. Picks that landed: Under 7.5 (98%), Home under 3.5 goals (96%), Under 6.5 (95%), Away +2 handicap (90%), Under 5.5 (89%), Home under 2.5 goals (87%), Away under 3.5 goals (86%). Missed: Away over 0.5 goals (86%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSKA Sofia win✗ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets win✗ Miss
53.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSKA Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.83
2.00
0.73
1.33
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.12
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.86
0.77
2.36
0.64
1.36
0.91
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.00
1.69
1.00
1.93
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.45
1.27
1.88
1.00
0.33
2.00
vs Weaker (19)
2.00
0.84
1.50
1.00
2.36
0.73
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.2%
Under 1.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.6%
Under 2.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.4%
Under 3.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.3%
No
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
7.9%
0-1
6.9%
1-3
6.5%
2-1
6.0%
2-2
6.0%
0-3
5.2%
CSKA Sofia goals ↓
Ludogorets goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
6.9%
7.9%
5.2%
2.6%
1
3.9%
11%
9.7%
6.5%
3.2%
2
3.0%
6.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
3
1.2%
2.5%
2.5%
1.6%
0.8%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSKA Sofia goals (down), columns = Ludogorets goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ludogorets
2.67
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
2.60
Botev Plovdiv
2.33
CSKA Sofia
2.17
Metalurg Pernik
2.00
Arda Kardzhali
2.00
Levski Sofia
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Cherno More Varna
2.00
Rilski Sportist
1.75
Beroe
1.67
Slavia Sofia
1.50
Chernolomets 1919
1.50
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.50
Spartak Varna
1.50
CSKA 1948
1.50
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.50
Belasitsa
1.50
FK Minyor Pernik
1.50
Yantra 2019
1.50
Dobrudzha
1.50
Sportist Svoge
1.50
Botev Vratsa
1.40
Dunav Ruse
1.33
Sayana Haskovo
1.33
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Hebar 1918
1.00
Germaneya
0.97
Benkovski Isperih
0.97
Bdin
0.97
Vitosha Bistritsa
0.97
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.50
Montana
0.50
Litex
0.00
Kom Berkovitsa
0.00
Yambol 1915
0.00
Zagorets
0.00
Spartak Plovdiv
0.00
Septemvri Tervel
0.00
Partizan
0.00
Botev Novi Pazar
0.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.00
Sevlievo
0.00
Vihren
0.00
Spartak Pleven
0.00
Marek
0.00
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.00
CSKA Sofia is 0.50 points worse than Ludogorets in terms of average points per game (2.17 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA 1948
3.50
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
3.20
Spartak Varna
3.00
Metalurg Pernik
2.67
Fratria
2.50
Ludogorets
2.17
Botev Plovdiv
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
2.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.00
Rilski Sportist
2.00
Yantra 2019
2.00
CSKA Sofia
1.83
Sayana Haskovo
1.67
Arda Kardzhali
1.67
Beroe
1.67
Slavia Sofia
1.50
Chernolomets 1919
1.50
Dobrudzha
1.50
Sportist Svoge
1.50
Cherno More Varna
1.40
Germaneya
1.22
Benkovski Isperih
1.22
Bdin
1.22
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.22
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Yambol 1915
1.00
Zagorets
1.00
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
1.00
Belasitsa
1.00
FK Minyor Pernik
1.00
Levski Sofia
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Marek
1.00
Montana
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.60
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.50
Litex
0.00
Kom Berkovitsa
0.00
Spartak Plovdiv
0.00
Septemvri Tervel
0.00
Partizan
0.00
Botev Novi Pazar
0.00
Sevlievo
0.00
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.00
Hebar 1918
0.00
CSKA Sofia is 0.33 goals worse than Ludogorets in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hebar 1918
0.00
Botev Plovdiv
0.33
Ludogorets
0.33
Levski Sofia
0.33
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.40
Cherno More Varna
0.40
Yantra 2019
0.50
Botev Vratsa
0.60
Dunav Ruse
0.67
CSKA Sofia
0.83
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Spartak Plovdiv
1.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.00
Arda Kardzhali
1.00
Sevlievo
1.00
FK Minyor Pernik
1.00
Beroe
1.00
Metalurg Pernik
1.33
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.50
Spartak Varna
1.50
CSKA 1948
1.50
Fratria
1.50
Rilski Sportist
1.75
Sayana Haskovo
2.00
Botev Novi Pazar
2.00
Septemvri Sofia
2.00
Vihren
2.00
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.00
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
2.00
Montana
2.00
Dobrudzha
2.00
Sportist Svoge
2.00
Germaneya
2.06
Benkovski Isperih
2.06
Bdin
2.06
Vitosha Bistritsa
2.06
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.50
Litex
3.00
Zagorets
3.00
Septemvri Tervel
3.00
Partizan
3.00
Chernolomets 1919
3.00
Belasitsa
3.00
Marek
3.00
Kom Berkovitsa
4.00
Yambol 1915
7.00
CSKA Sofia is 0.50 goals worse than Ludogorets in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 0.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
CSKA Sofia or Draw✓ Hit
46.1%
Avg Implied -
22%
24%
54%
covers CSKA Sofia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia or Ludogorets✗ Miss
76.4%
Avg Implied -
22%
24%
54%
covers CSKA Sofia + Ludogorets
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ludogorets✓ Hit
77.5%
Avg Implied -
22%
24%
54%
covers Draw + Ludogorets
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
CSKA Sofia over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.0%
Under
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
86.4%
Under
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
59.2%
Under
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
32.1%
Under
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to CSKA Sofia, so a minus line means CSKA Sofia give that many goals of a start and Ludogorets receive them. At -1, CSKA Sofia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal CSKA Sofia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (CSKA Sofia)Actual: Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia -2
3.0%
Draw -2
6.4%
Ludogorets +2
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (CSKA Sofia)Actual: Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia -1
9.5%
Draw -1
13.0%
Ludogorets +1
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (CSKA Sofia)Actual: CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia +1
46.1%
Draw +1
21.6%
Ludogorets -1
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (CSKA Sofia)Actual: CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia +2
67.6%
Draw +2
16.7%
Ludogorets -2
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSKA Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (22)
0.77
0.32
0.91
0.36
0.64
0.27
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.75
0.44
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.55
1.00
0.25
0.00
1.33
vs Weaker (19)
0.79
0.42
0.50
0.62
1.00
0.27
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSKA Sofia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSKA Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.20
0.33
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.38
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (22)
1.09
0.45
1.45
0.27
0.73
0.64
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
0.94
0.56
1.14
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.73
0.88
0.75
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (19)
1.21
0.42
1.00
0.38
1.36
0.45
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSKA Sofia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
BP (52)
€20m
AK (20)
€10m
CMV (22)
€6m
CSKA Sofia's squad is €20m less valuable than Ludogorets's (€26m vs €46m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
BP (20)
€7m
AK (7)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
CSKA Sofia's attack is €17m less valuable than Ludogorets's (€10m vs €27m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
BP (11)
€4m
AK (3)
€3m
CMV (5)
€1m
CSKA Sofia and Ludogorets have a similar midfield value (both €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
BP (21)
€8m
AK (10)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
CSKA Sofia's defence is €3m less valuable than Ludogorets's (€10m vs €13m).
Bulgaria: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →