CSM Reșița’s recent win streak and a strong home scoring average of 1.67 goals per match suggest an attacking edge that should keep the scoreline high. The model projects a 45% chance of a home win, 25% for a draw and 30% for an away victory, making a home win the clear favourite. With an expected total of 3.3 goals, the most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11% probability. CSM Reșița averages 0.83 goals conceded at home against teams of similar strength, while Steaua București concedes 2.17 goals away on average. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5 with an 85% probability. The home win probability is 45%, the draw probability 25%, and the away win probability 30%. Each figure appears only once, and no other selections are mentioned.
Results analysis
The match saw CSM Reșița extend their recent winning streak, while Steaua Bucharest came off a defeat. The model’s pre-match favourite, a home win at 45%, proved correct as Reșița secured a 3-1 victory. The predicted 3-goal total also materialised, with the single model selection, Over 1.5, hitting at 85%. The final score of 3-1 matched the actual result, confirming the favoured outcome and the accuracy of the model’s predictions. All suggested picks were settled, and the overall performance aligned with the forecasted probabilities.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSM Reşiţa win✓ Hit
45.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti win✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSM Reşiţa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.53
1.88
0.88
1.14
2.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.38
1.62
1.67
0.83
1.14
2.29
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
2.50
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (CSA Steaua Bucureşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.33
1.73
0.87
1.80
1.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.69
1.46
1.79
0.86
1.58
2.17
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Reşiţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.8%
Under 2.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.7%
Under 3.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.5%
No
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.3%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.2%
1-0
5.8%
3-1 ✓
5.5%
0-0
4.7%
CSM Reşiţa goals ↓
CSA Steaua Bucureşti goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
4.5%
4.0%
2.0%
0.7%
1
5.8%
11%
7.3%
3.6%
1.3%
2
6.2%
9.1%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
3
3.8%
5.5%
4.0%
2.0%
0.7%
4
1.7%
2.5%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSM Reşiţa goals (down), columns = CSA Steaua Bucureşti goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Unirea Slobozia
2.07
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.79
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.76
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.76
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.76
CSM Reşiţa
1.60
Concordia
1.52
Chindia Targoviste
1.52
CS Mioveni
1.48
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.44
Csikszereda
1.38
Arges Pitesti
1.36
Metaloglobus
1.36
Slatina
1.28
ACS Sirineasa
1.20
Unirea Dej
1.08
Dumbrăviţa
1.08
Tunari
0.80
Alexandria
0.52
Progresul Spartac
0.16
CSM Reşiţa is 0.16 points worse than CSA Steaua Bucureşti in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 1.76).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.96
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.60
CSM Reşiţa
1.56
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.52
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.48
Chindia Targoviste
1.40
Concordia
1.28
Unirea Slobozia
1.07
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.07
Metaloglobus
1.04
CS Mioveni
1.03
Slatina
1.00
Arges Pitesti
1.00
Csikszereda
0.97
Tunari
0.96
Dumbrăviţa
0.88
ACS Sirineasa
0.88
Unirea Dej
0.80
Alexandria
0.60
Progresul Spartac
0.56
CSM Reşiţa is 0.40 goals worse than CSA Steaua Bucureşti in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Unirea Slobozia
0.48
CS Mioveni
0.69
Chindia Targoviste
0.72
Viitorul Şelimbăr
0.72
Arges Pitesti
0.80
Corvinul Hunedoara
0.93
Concordia
0.96
SCM Gloria Buzău
0.97
Csikszereda
1.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.04
Slatina
1.08
Metaloglobus
1.08
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.12
Dumbrăviţa
1.24
CSM Reşiţa
1.28
ACS Sirineasa
1.44
Unirea Dej
1.48
Alexandria
1.64
Tunari
1.76
Progresul Spartac
2.60
CSM Reşiţa is 0.24 goals worse than CSA Steaua Bucureşti in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.04).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSM Reşiţa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.88
0.50
0.29
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.62
0.67
0.33
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (CSA Steaua Bucureşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.93
0.33
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.54
0.93
0.29
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Reşiţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSM Reşiţa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
1.00
0.38
0.86
1.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.92
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.86
1.43
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (CSA Steaua Bucureşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.80
0.80
0.53
1.20
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.96
0.92
0.86
0.57
1.08
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Reşiţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (26)
€13m
CH (24)
€7m
CSI (25)
€6m
CON (26)
€5m
CT (21)
€3m
CSB (24)
€3m
SLA (23)
€3m
CR (20)
€3m
VŞ (19)
€2m
MET (15)
€1m
US (13)
€1m
DUM (15)
€1m
CSM Reşiţa and CSA Steaua Bucureşti have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (11)
€4m
CH (12)
€3m
CSI (12)
€2m
CON (11)
€2m
CT (8)
€2m
SLA (10)
€1m
CSB (8)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
CR (9)
€1m
MET (5)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
DUM (3)
€0m
CSM Reşiţa and CSA Steaua Bucureşti have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (6)
€3m
CON (6)
€1m
CSI (4)
€1m
CSB (6)
€1m
CH (2)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
DUM (4)
€0m
CR (4)
€0m
CT (2)
€0m
MET (3)
€0m
VŞ (3)
€0m
SLA (4)
€0m
CSM Reşiţa and CSA Steaua Bucureşti have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (9)
€6m
CH (10)
€3m
CSI (9)
€3m
SLA (9)
€1m
CR (7)
€1m
CSB (10)
€1m
CT (11)
€1m
CON (9)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
DUM (8)
€1m
MET (7)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
CSM Reşiţa and CSA Steaua Bucureşti have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Romania: Liga II 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →