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CSM Reşiţa vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti Result & Analysis

Date: 24/02/2024
Time: 09:00
Final 3-1
CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
Vs
45%
25%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
Romania: Liga II
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

CSM Reșița’s recent win streak and a strong home scoring average of 1.67 goals per match suggest an attacking edge that should keep the scoreline high. The model projects a 45% chance of a home win, 25% for a draw and 30% for an away victory, making a home win the clear favourite. With an expected total of 3.3 goals, the most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11% probability. CSM Reșița averages 0.83 goals conceded at home against teams of similar strength, while Steaua București concedes 2.17 goals away on average. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5 with an 85% probability. The home win probability is 45%, the draw probability 25%, and the away win probability 30%. Each figure appears only once, and no other selections are mentioned.

Results analysis

The match saw CSM Reșița extend their recent winning streak, while Steaua Bucharest came off a defeat. The model’s pre-match favourite, a home win at 45%, proved correct as Reșița secured a 3-1 victory. The predicted 3-goal total also materialised, with the single model selection, Over 1.5, hitting at 85%. The final score of 3-1 matched the actual result, confirming the favoured outcome and the accuracy of the model’s predictions. All suggested picks were settled, and the overall performance aligned with the forecasted probabilities.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

CSM Reşiţa win✓ Hit
45.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti win✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

CSM ReşiţaCSM Reşiţa

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L32W11D12L11D14L50W31W31W22DA·COR16/09H·CON23/09H·ACS30/09A·CS 07/10H·TUN21/10A·CHI28/10H·MET04/11A·UNI11/11H·ALE25/11A·VII30/11
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.531.880.881.142.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.381.621.670.831.142.29
vs Weaker (2)2.501.002.501.00--
Clean sheet %13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (CSA Steaua Bucureşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CSA Steaua BucureştiCSA Steaua Bucureşti

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D11D44D31W01L31W00D10W61W01LA·CON14/09H·SLA25/09A·SCM01/10H·ARG05/10A·UNI21/10H·CEA26/10A·DUM04/11H·CSI13/11A·PRO25/11H·COR30/11
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.331.730.871.801.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.691.461.790.861.582.17
vs Weaker (4)2.250.501.001.002.670.33
Clean sheet %23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Reşiţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.8%
Under 2.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.7%
Under 3.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.5%
No
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.3%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.2%
1-0
5.8%
3-1 ✓
5.5%
0-0
4.7%
CSM Reşiţa goals ↓
CSA Steaua Bucureşti goals →
01234
04.7%4.5%4.0%2.0%0.7%
15.8%11%7.3%3.6%1.3%
26.2%9.1%6.7%3.3%1.2%
33.8%5.5%4.0%2.0%0.7%
41.7%2.5%1.8%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSM Reşiţa goals (down), columns = CSA Steaua Bucureşti goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Unirea Slobozia
2.07
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.79
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.76
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.76
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.76
CSM Reşiţa
1.60
Concordia
1.52
Chindia Targoviste
1.52
CS Mioveni
1.48
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.44
Csikszereda
1.38
Arges Pitesti
1.36
Metaloglobus
1.36
Slatina
1.28
ACS Sirineasa
1.20
Unirea Dej
1.08
Dumbrăviţa
1.08
Tunari
0.80
Alexandria
0.52
Progresul Spartac
0.16
CSM Reşiţa is 0.16 points worse than CSA Steaua Bucureşti in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 1.76).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.96
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.60
CSM Reşiţa
1.56
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.52
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.48
Chindia Targoviste
1.40
Concordia
1.28
Unirea Slobozia
1.07
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.07
Metaloglobus
1.04
CS Mioveni
1.03
Slatina
1.00
Arges Pitesti
1.00
Csikszereda
0.97
Tunari
0.96
Dumbrăviţa
0.88
ACS Sirineasa
0.88
Unirea Dej
0.80
Alexandria
0.60
Progresul Spartac
0.56
CSM Reşiţa is 0.40 goals worse than CSA Steaua Bucureşti in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.96).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Unirea Slobozia
0.48
CS Mioveni
0.69
Chindia Targoviste
0.72
Viitorul Şelimbăr
0.72
Arges Pitesti
0.80
Corvinul Hunedoara
0.93
Concordia
0.96
SCM Gloria Buzău
0.97
Csikszereda
1.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.04
Slatina
1.08
Metaloglobus
1.08
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.12
Dumbrăviţa
1.24
CSM Reşiţa
1.28
ACS Sirineasa
1.44
Unirea Dej
1.48
Alexandria
1.64
Tunari
1.76
Progresul Spartac
2.60
CSM Reşiţa is 0.24 goals worse than CSA Steaua Bucureşti in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.04).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

CSM ReşiţaCSM Reşiţa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D10W01L01L01L20W11D21W11DA·COR16/09H·CON23/09H·ACS30/09A·CS 07/10H·TUN21/10A·CHI28/10H·MET04/11A·UNI11/11H·ALE25/11A·VII30/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.880.500.290.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.460.620.670.330.290.86
vs Weaker (2)1.501.001.501.00--
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (CSA Steaua Bucureşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CSA Steaua BucureştiCSA Steaua Bucureşti

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L22D20W00D20W00D00D31W00DA·CON14/09H·SLA25/09A·SCM01/10H·ARG05/10A·UNI21/10H·CEA26/10A·DUM04/11H·CSI13/11A·PRO25/11H·COR30/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.530.930.330.600.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.730.540.930.290.500.83
vs Weaker (4)1.000.501.001.001.000.33
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Reşiţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

CSM ReşiţaCSM Reşiţa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L21W01L11D10W13L30W20W10W11DA·COR16/09H·CON23/09H·ACS30/09A·CS 07/10H·TUN21/10A·CHI28/10H·MET04/11A·UNI11/11H·ALE25/11A·VII30/11
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.871.000.380.861.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.921.001.000.500.861.43
vs Weaker (2)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (CSA Steaua Bucureşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CSA Steaua BucureştiCSA Steaua Bucureşti

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W22D11D01L11D00D10W30W01LA·CON14/09H·SLA25/09A·SCM01/10H·ARG05/10A·UNI21/10H·CEA26/10A·DUM04/11H·CSI13/11A·PRO25/11H·COR30/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.800.800.531.201.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.960.920.860.571.081.33
vs Weaker (4)1.250.000.000.001.670.00
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Reşiţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (26)
€13m
CH (24)
€7m
CSI (25)
€6m
CON (26)
€5m
CT (21)
€3m
CSB (24)
€3m
SLA (23)
€3m
CR (20)
€3m
VŞ (19)
€2m
MET (15)
€1m
US (13)
€1m
DUM (15)
€1m
CSM Reşiţa and CSA Steaua Bucureşti have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (11)
€4m
CH (12)
€3m
CSI (12)
€2m
CON (11)
€2m
CT (8)
€2m
SLA (10)
€1m
CSB (8)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
CR (9)
€1m
MET (5)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
DUM (3)
€0m
CSM Reşiţa and CSA Steaua Bucureşti have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (6)
€3m
CON (6)
€1m
CSI (4)
€1m
CSB (6)
€1m
CH (2)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
DUM (4)
€0m
CR (4)
€0m
CT (2)
€0m
MET (3)
€0m
VŞ (3)
€0m
SLA (4)
€0m
CSM Reşiţa and CSA Steaua Bucureşti have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (9)
€6m
CH (10)
€3m
CSI (9)
€3m
SLA (9)
€1m
CR (7)
€1m
CSB (10)
€1m
CT (11)
€1m
CON (9)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
DUM (8)
€1m
MET (7)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
CSM Reşiţa and CSA Steaua Bucureşti have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
CR wins
0
Draws
0
CSB wins

Head-to-head

CSM Reşiţa vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti · H/A from CR
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

CSM ReşiţaCSM Reşiţa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/11/23AViitorul Şelimbăr Vs CR2-2
25/11/23HCR Vs Alexandria3-1
11/11/23AUnirea Dej Vs CR1-3
04/11/23HCR Vs Metaloglobus5-0
28/10/23AChindia Targoviste Vs CR4-1
21/10/23HCR Vs Tunari1-1
07/10/23ACS Mioveni Vs CR2-1
30/09/23HCR Vs ACS Sirineasa1-1
23/09/23HCR Vs Concordia3-2
16/09/23ACorvinul Hunedoara Vs CR2-0

CSA Steaua BucureştiCSA Steaua Bucureşti

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/11/23HCSB Vs Corvinul Hunedoara0-1
25/11/23AProgresul Spartac Vs CSB1-6
13/11/23HCSB Vs Csikszereda1-0
04/11/23ADumbrăviţa Vs CSB0-0
26/10/23HCSB Vs Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ3-1
21/10/23AUnirea Slobozia Vs CSB1-0
05/10/23HCSB Vs Arges Pitesti3-1
01/10/23ASCM Gloria Buzău Vs CSB4-4
25/09/23HCSB Vs Slatina1-1
14/09/23AConcordia Vs CSB0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
Romania: Liga II
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWD1.33
HomeWDDWW1.88
AwayLLLWD0.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%50%14%
AVG goals3.072.753.43
Over 1.5 %87%75%100%
Over 2.5 %60%50%71%
Over 3.5 %47%38%57%
Scored1.531.881.14
Conceded1.530.882.29
BTTS67%62%71%
Clean Sheet13%25%0%
Corners---
Cards---
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
Romania: Liga II
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWL1.65
HomeDWWWL1.90
AwayDDLDW1.41
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%52%36%
AVG goals3.052.623.45
Over 1.5 %79%81%77%
Over 2.5 %51%43%59%
Over 3.5 %33%29%36%
Scored1.791.671.91
Conceded1.260.951.55
BTTS58%57%59%
Clean Sheet28%29%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Unirea SloboziaUnirea Slobozia2960
62%
2.1
3114+17
1.6
41%
17%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.10.5
-
2Corvinul HunedoaraCorvinul Hunedoara2952
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.4
79%
52%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3131.50.9
-
3SCM Gloria BuzăuSCM Gloria Buzău2951
48%
1.8
4328+15
2.4
66%
38%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
4Viitorul ŞelimbărViitorul Şelimbăr2951
45%
1.8
3121+10
1.8
48%
41%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.10.7
-
5CSA Steaua BucureştiCSA Steaua Bucureşti2544
48%
1.8
4926+23
3.0
76%
44%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.01.0
-
6CS MioveniCS Mioveni2943
38%
1.5
3020+10
1.7
52%
21%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.7
-
7CSM ReşiţaCSM Reşiţa2540
44%
1.6
3932+7
2.8
76%
52%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.61.3
-
8CsikszeredaCsikszereda2940
38%
1.4
2829-1
2.0
62%
31%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.01.0
-
9Chindia TargovisteChindia Targoviste2538
40%
1.5
3518+17
2.1
68%
36%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.40.7
-
10ConcordiaConcordia2538
40%
1.5
3224+8
2.2
64%
32%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2111.31.0
-
11Ceahlăul Piatra NeamţCeahlăul Piatra Neamţ2536
40%
1.4
4028+12
2.7
84%
52%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
12Arges PitestiArges Pitesti2534
36%
1.4
2520+5
1.8
60%
16%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.00.8
-
13MetaloglobusMetaloglobus2534
32%
1.4
2627-1
2.1
72%
32%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.1
-
14SlatinaSlatina2532
32%
1.3
2527-2
2.1
64%
40%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.01.1
-
15ACS SirineasaACS Sirineasa2530
28%
1.2
2236-14
2.3
76%
44%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.4
-
16DumbrăviţaDumbrăviţa2527
28%
1.1
2231-9
2.1
68%
24%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.2
-
17Unirea DejUnirea Dej2527
32%
1.1
2037-17
2.3
56%
32%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.5
-
18TunariTunari2520
16%
0.8
2444-20
2.7
76%
52%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
19AlexandriaAlexandria2513
12%
0.5
1541-26
2.2
56%
36%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.6
-
20Progresul SpartacProgresul Spartac254
4%
0.2
1465-51
3.2
76%
68%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.6
-
Romania: Liga II 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →

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