This highly anticipated matchup between Cukaricki and OFK Beograd in the Serbia: Super Liga is finely balanced, with a recent-form storyline emerging as OFK Beograd comes off a 4-1 win over Novi Pazar, while Cukaricki is on a 2-game winning run. However, OFK Beograd's away form against similar opponents is concerning, averaging just 0.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded.
Cukaricki's home form is more encouraging, averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. The model predicts an away win, with a probability of 39%, while the home win probability stands at 34% and the draw probability at 27%. The expected total goals are 3.0, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a probability of 12.5%.
Among the model's selections, the most likely is an Over 21.5 fouls outcome, occurring with a probability of 92.5%, followed by an Over 1.5 outcome, occurring with a probability of 80.5%. The home win percentage is 34%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 39%.
Results analysis
Cukaricki's 2-0 victory over OFK Beograd extends their recent winning form, following a win over the same opponent last time out. The win was a surprise, as OFK Beograd were the pre-match favourite with a 39% chance of winning. However, the Pythia model correctly identified the away win as the most likely outcome. In contrast, the model's selection, OFK Beograd, failed to come through. The model's call was wrong, as the home win was the actual result. The model did correctly identify the Over 1.5 goal line as a good selection, as it hit, with a probability of 80.5%.
šÆ 1. Model Analysis
Cukaricki winā Hit
33.8%
Avg Implied 37.9% · @ 2.38
Edge
-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.49
Dafabet
2.47
William Hil
2.45
888Sport
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Drawā Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.12
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.45
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Dafabet
3.20
888Sport
3.10
OFK Beograd winā Miss
39.4%
Avg Implied 33.2% · @ 2.72
Edge
+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.95
Bet365
2.90
Pinnacle
2.86
Betano
2.77
Marathonbet
2.76
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
Cukaricki
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.23
1.62
1.31
0.94
1.18
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.15
1.50
1.25
0.83
1.08
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
1.25
3.00
1.00
2.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (OFK Beograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFK Beograd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.13
1.14
1.00
1.44
1.25
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
1.75
3.00
4.00
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (15)
1.27
1.27
1.00
1.00
1.57
1.57
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.73
1.00
0.40
1.17
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Cukaricki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.5%
@ 1.24+7.0%
Under 1.5
19.5%
@ 3.45-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.58
1xBet
3.58
888Sport
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.6%
@ 1.81+5.6%
Under 2.5
43.4%
@ 1.89-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.89
Pinnacle
1.88
Betfair
1.87
SBO
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.95
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
SBO
1.93
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.2%
@ 2.91+2.8%
Under 3.5
65.8%
@ 1.33-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.25
Unibet
3.15
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
888Sport
3.00
Under
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.6%
@ 1.62+4.3%
No
39.4%
@ 2.09-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
10Bet
1.65
William Hil
1.62
No
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.19
William Hil
2.15
888Sport
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 6.08+5.2%
1-2
8.7%@ 9.67+4.1%
2-1
8.0%@ 8.68+2.9%
0-1
6.9%@ 9.14+2.0%
0-0
6.4%@ 9.08+1.5%
1-0
6.2%@ 8.34+0.9%
0-2
6.2%@ 14.11+3.0%
2-2
6.2%@ 11.59+2.3%
Cukaricki goals ↓
OFK Beograd goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
6.9%
6.2%
3.2%
1.2%
1
6.2%
12%
8.7%
4.5%
1.7%
2
5.2%
8.0%
6.2%
3.2%
1.2%
3
2.5%
3.8%
2.9%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.9%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cukaricki goals (down), columns = OFK Beograd goals (across).
šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.00
Vojvodina
2.14
Radnicki 1923
1.67
IMT Novi Beograd
1.67
Mladost Lucani
1.67
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
1.60
Cukaricki
1.43
OFK Beograd
1.33
Radnik Surdulica
1.33
Novi Pazar
1.14
Macva
1.00
Radnicki NIS
0.83
FK Partizan
0.80
Zemun
0.14
Cukaricki is 0.10 points better than OFK Beograd in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.33).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.20
Vojvodina
2.14
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
1.80
FK Partizan
1.40
IMT Novi Beograd
1.33
Cukaricki
1.29
OFK Beograd
1.17
Radnicki 1923
1.17
Mladost Lucani
1.17
Radnik Surdulica
1.00
Novi Pazar
0.71
Macva
0.71
Radnicki NIS
0.50
Zemun
0.29
Cukaricki is 0.12 goals better than OFK Beograd in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.17).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.20
IMT Novi Beograd
0.67
Mladost Lucani
0.67
Vojvodina
0.86
Radnicki 1923
1.00
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
1.00
Radnicki NIS
1.00
Novi Pazar
1.14
OFK Beograd
1.50
Radnik Surdulica
1.50
Cukaricki
1.71
FK Partizan
1.80
Macva
1.86
Zemun
2.00
Cukaricki is 0.21 goals worse than OFK Beograd in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.50).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
FK Partizan
63%
FK Crvena Zvezda
61%
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
61%
Radnicki 1923
58%
OFK Beograd
57%
Radnicki NIS
55%
Vojvodina
52%
IMT Novi Beograd
52%
Novi Pazar
49%
Radnik Surdulica
48%
Cukaricki
41%
Macva
38%
Mladost Lucani
38%
Zemun
37%
Cukaricki is 15.5 percentage points worse than OFK Beograd in terms of average possession (41% vs 57%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cukaricki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.85
0.54
0.65
0.71
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.60
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (OFK Beograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFK Beograd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.57
0.57
0.69
0.44
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.60
0.38
0.50
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.18
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Cukaricki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cukaricki over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cukaricki over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cukaricki over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Beograd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Beograd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Beograd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cukaricki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.77
0.77
0.29
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.55
0.75
1.00
0.33
0.25
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
2.00
0.00
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (OFK Beograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFK Beograd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.57
0.43
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
2.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.67
0.62
0.50
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.55
0.40
0.00
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Cukaricki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cukaricki over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cukaricki over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cukaricki over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Beograd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Beograd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Beograd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 11.5 corners
85.5%
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-
-
-
-
+9.3%
ā Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 1.5
80.5%
1.24
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+7.0%
ā Hit
Under 10.5 corners
77.1%
1.37
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.35
-
-
+10.5%
ā Hit
Over 3.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
š½ 13. Player market rates
Cukaricki
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fiorin Durmishaj33%
UroÅ” MiladinoviÄ33%
Milan ÄokoviÄ33%
Aboubacar Cisse20%
Milan Pavkov0%
Nemanja MiletiÄ0%
Marko DociÄ0%
Zlatan Å ehoviÄ0%
ÄorÄe NikoliÄ0%
SrÄan MijailoviÄ0%
Lazar MijoviÄ0%
Sambou Sissoko0%
Andrej BajoviÄ0%
Ismael Maiga0%
Lazar StojanoviÄ0%
Veljko RadosavljeviÄ0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Milan Pavkov50%
Sambou Sissoko50%
UroÅ” MiladinoviÄ33%
Lazar StojanoviÄ25%
Andrej BajoviÄ20%
Aboubacar Cisse20%
Veljko RadosavljeviÄ20%
Nemanja MiletiÄ17%
Marko DociÄ17%
Ismael Maiga17%
Fiorin Durmishaj0%
Zlatan Å ehoviÄ0%
ÄorÄe NikoliÄ0%
SrÄan MijailoviÄ0%
Lazar MijoviÄ0%
Milan ÄokoviÄ0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Zlatan Å ehoviÄ33%
ÄorÄe NikoliÄ25%
Lazar StojanoviÄ25%
Nemanja MiletiÄ17%
UroÅ” MiladinoviÄ17%
Milan Pavkov0%
Fiorin Durmishaj0%
Marko DociÄ0%
SrÄan MijailoviÄ0%
Lazar MijoviÄ0%
Sambou Sissoko0%
Andrej BajoviÄ0%
Milan ÄokoviÄ0%
Aboubacar Cisse0%
Ismael Maiga0%
Veljko RadosavljeviÄ0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
UroÅ” MiladinoviÄ33%
Aboubacar Cisse20%
Zlatan Å ehoviÄ17%
Milan Pavkov0%
Nemanja MiletiÄ0%
Fiorin Durmishaj0%
Marko DociÄ0%
ÄorÄe NikoliÄ0%
SrÄan MijailoviÄ0%
Lazar MijoviÄ0%
Sambou Sissoko0%
Andrej BajoviÄ0%
Milan ÄokoviÄ0%
Ismael Maiga0%
Lazar StojanoviÄ0%
Veljko RadosavljeviÄ0%
OFK Beograd
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yacouba Silue40%
Jovan Å ljiviÄ33%
ÄorÄe RankoviÄ25%
Sergio PeƱa20%
Tjay De Barr20%
Marko GobeljiÄ0%
Milan RodiÄ0%
UroÅ” StojanoviÄ0%
Edmund Addo0%
Stefan Despotovski0%
Miljan MomÄiloviÄ0%
Aleksej VukiÄeviÄ0%
Vuk DraÅ”kiÄ0%
Ethan Hoard0%
Andrej Pavlovic0%
Aderoju Hameed Ayinde0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Edmund Addo67%
Andrej Pavlovic50%
Aleksej VukiÄeviÄ33%
Marko GobeljiÄ25%
Tjay De Barr20%
Miljan MomÄiloviÄ20%
Milan RodiÄ0%
Sergio PeƱa0%
UroÅ” StojanoviÄ0%
Stefan Despotovski0%
Yacouba Silue0%
Jovan Å ljiviÄ0%
Vuk DraÅ”kiÄ0%
Ethan Hoard0%
Aderoju Hameed Ayinde0%
ÄorÄe RankoviÄ0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marko GobeljiÄ25%
Sergio PeƱa20%
UroÅ” StojanoviÄ20%
Aderoju Hameed Ayinde20%
Milan RodiÄ0%
Tjay De Barr0%
Edmund Addo0%
Stefan Despotovski0%
Yacouba Silue0%
Miljan MomÄiloviÄ0%
Aleksej VukiÄeviÄ0%
Jovan Å ljiviÄ0%
Vuk DraÅ”kiÄ0%
Ethan Hoard0%
Andrej Pavlovic0%
ÄorÄe RankoviÄ0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yacouba Silue40%
Jovan Å ljiviÄ33%
Ethan Hoard20%
Aderoju Hameed Ayinde20%
Marko GobeljiÄ0%
Milan RodiÄ0%
Sergio PeƱa0%
UroÅ” StojanoviÄ0%
Tjay De Barr0%
Edmund Addo0%
Stefan Despotovski0%
Miljan MomÄiloviÄ0%
Aleksej VukiÄeviÄ0%
Vuk DraÅ”kiÄ0%
Andrej Pavlovic0%
ÄorÄe RankoviÄ0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (32)
€115m
FP (30)
€48m
VOJ (29)
€30m
OB (28)
€18m
ŽP (24)
€13m
INB (23)
€12m
RN (26)
€11m
NP (21)
€10m
CUK (23)
€10m
R1 (26)
€9m
RS (26)
€9m
ML (28)
€8m
ZEM (22)
€5m
MAC (19)
€4m
Cukaricki's squad is €9m less valuable than OFK Beograd's (€10m vs €18m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€62m
FP (15)
€24m
VOJ (15)
€13m
ŽP (9)
€7m
OB (10)
€6m
RN (11)
€4m
ML (10)
€4m
R1 (10)
€4m
CUK (8)
€4m
INB (8)
€4m
NP (9)
€3m
RS (10)
€3m
ZEM (9)
€2m
MAC (7)
€2m
Cukaricki's attack is €2m less valuable than OFK Beograd's (€4m vs €6m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (6)
€21m
FP (2)
€11m
VOJ (4)
€7m
OB (8)
€4m
INB (3)
€4m
R1 (6)
€3m
NP (3)
€2m
CUK (5)
€2m
RS (5)
€2m
ZEM (5)
€1m
ML (6)
€1m
ŽP (4)
€1m
RN (3)
€1m
MAC (3)
€1m
Cukaricki's midfield is €2m less valuable than OFK Beograd's (€2m vs €4m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€33m
FP (13)
€14m
VOJ (10)
€9m
OB (10)
€8m
ŽP (11)
€6m
RN (12)
€5m
NP (9)
€5m
RS (11)
€4m
INB (12)
€4m
CUK (10)
€3m
R1 (10)
€3m
ML (12)
€2m
MAC (9)
€2m
ZEM (8)
€1m
Cukaricki's defence is €5m less valuable than OFK Beograd's (€3m vs €8m).
Serbia: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Super Liga stats & trends →
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FK Crvena Zvezda
Vojvodina
IMT Novi Beograd
Mladost Lucani
Radnicki 1923
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
Radnik Surdulica
Novi Pazar
Macva
Radnicki NIS
FK Partizan
Zemun