Cukaricki are tipped to win, with a 61% chance of taking the match home, a 23% chance of a draw and a 16% chance of Radnicki NIS pulling off an upset. The model expects 2.8 goals in total, with the most likely scoreline a 1-1 draw at 11.2%. Cukaricki’s home form shows they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Radnicki NIS on the road average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded to comparable opponents. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 93.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 84.3%, Over 3.5 cards at 84.0%, Over 1.5 goals at 78.3% (hit), Under 10.5 corners at 75.6% and Over 4.5 cards at 70.2%. The home side’s recent form, after two straight defeats, and the away side’s recent draw set the stage for a tightly contested encounter.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Cukaricki, failed to deliver as the game finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s home-win call wrong. The model had given the home side a 61% chance of victory, yet the match settled at a 23% draw probability. The most likely scoreline, 1-1, had a 25% chance, but the actual score of 2-2 was a surprise. The single suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit its target with a 78.3% probability. Cukaricki’s recent form, marked by two consecutive losses, and Radnicki NIS’s mixed away record, both contributed to the unexpected outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cukaricki win✗ Miss
60.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS win✗ Miss
15.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cukaricki
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.20
2.00
1.14
2.38
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.71
1.86
1.33
2.33
2.00
1.50
vs Weaker (8)
2.62
0.62
2.50
0.25
2.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnicki NIS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnicki NIS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
2.00
1.86
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
3.25
1.50
3.00
0.00
3.50
vs Similar (10)
1.70
1.50
2.00
1.60
1.40
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cukaricki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.3%
Under 1.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.7%
Under 2.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.4%
Under 3.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.4%
No
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
2-0
11.1%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-0
7.2%
0-0
6.9%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
4.5%
Cukaricki goals ↓
Radnicki NIS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
4.2%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
1
10%
11%
4.5%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
7.2%
6.4%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.5%
3.1%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cukaricki goals (down), columns = Radnicki NIS goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
2.62
Cukaricki
2.03
TSC Backa Topola
2.03
FK Partizan
1.92
Vojvodina
1.70
Indjija
1.50
Novi Pazar
1.38
FK Vozdovac
1.24
Radnicki 1923
1.14
Kolubara
1.11
Napredak
1.05
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.05
Mladost Lucani
1.03
Javor
1.00
Radnik Surdulica
1.00
Radnicki NIS
0.97
Mladost Novi Sad
0.81
Grafičar
0.50
Cukaricki is 1.05 points better than Radnicki NIS in terms of average points per game (2.03 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
2.59
FK Partizan
1.84
TSC Backa Topola
1.78
Cukaricki
1.76
Vojvodina
1.59
Indjija
1.50
Novi Pazar
1.08
Mladost Lucani
1.08
Radnicki NIS
1.05
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.03
Radnicki 1923
1.00
Javor
0.95
Radnik Surdulica
0.79
FK Vozdovac
0.78
Kolubara
0.76
Napredak
0.73
Mladost Novi Sad
0.68
Grafičar
0.50
Cukaricki is 0.71 goals better than Radnicki NIS in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.51
TSC Backa Topola
0.86
FK Partizan
0.92
Vojvodina
0.95
Napredak
1.00
Cukaricki
1.03
Radnicki 1923
1.16
Radnik Surdulica
1.31
Novi Pazar
1.32
Mladost Novi Sad
1.32
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.32
FK Vozdovac
1.41
Grafičar
1.50
Javor
1.51
Kolubara
1.54
Mladost Lucani
1.54
Radnicki NIS
1.64
Indjija
2.00
Cukaricki is 0.61 goals better than Radnicki NIS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.64).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FK Crvena Zvezda
61%
TSC Backa Topola
56%
Radnicki 1923
56%
Napredak
54%
Radnicki NIS
52%
Mladost Lucani
51%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
50%
Vojvodina
49%
Cukaricki
49%
Kolubara
45%
Novi Pazar
43%
FK Partizan
43%
Radnik Surdulica
39%
Mladost Novi Sad
38%
Javor
36%
Cukaricki is 3.3 percentage points worse than Radnicki NIS in terms of average possession (49% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cukaricki
For 5.0 · Against 3.7 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 12.0 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Radnicki NIS
For 6.3 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.8 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Cukaricki
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (15)
8.7
8.0
9.2
2.5
2.4
2.5
24.5
33.0
16.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
10.2
9.0
10.7
2.0
1.0
2.8
24.5
33.0
16.0
vs Weaker (8)
7.4
7.7
7.0
2.9
3.5
2.2
-
-
-
% over line
56%
25%
80%
33%
29%
38%
50%
100%
0%
% under line
44%
75%
20%
67%
71%
62%
50%
0%
100%
This opponent (Radnicki NIS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnicki NIS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (14)
10.8
11.5
9.5
3.4
4.4
2.4
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
10.5
10.5
-
5.0
10.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
11.0
12.5
9.5
2.8
2.2
3.4
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
67%
75%
50%
36%
43%
29%
-
-
-
% under line
33%
25%
50%
64%
57%
71%
-
-
-
This opponent (Cukaricki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kolubara
11.2
FK Partizan
11.1
FK Crvena Zvezda
11.1
Radnicki NIS
10.8
Vojvodina
10.5
Mladost Lucani
9.6
Radnik Surdulica
9.6
FK Vozdovac
9.2
Cukaricki
8.7
Radnicki 1923
8.4
Napredak
8.2
Novi Pazar
8.0
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
8.0
Mladost Novi Sad
7.5
TSC Backa Topola
7.2
Javor
6.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Radnicki NIS
9.6
TSC Backa Topola
8.2
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
6.2
Vojvodina
6.0
Mladost Lucani
6.0
FK Partizan
6.0
Novi Pazar
5.7
Mladost Novi Sad
5.5
FK Vozdovac
5.2
Javor
5.0
FK Crvena Zvezda
4.9
Napredak
4.5
Kolubara
4.3
Cukaricki
4.1
Radnik Surdulica
3.8
Radnicki 1923
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
28.2
Cukaricki
24.5
FK Partizan
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
35.6%
Under 9.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
84.0%
Under 3.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cukaricki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.80
1.00
0.71
1.38
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.33
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.62
1.25
0.25
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnicki NIS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnicki NIS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.86
0.71
0.86
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.70
0.80
1.00
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
36% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Cukaricki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cukaricki over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cukaricki over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cukaricki over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cukaricki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.43
1.00
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.86
0.67
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnicki NIS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnicki NIS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
1.14
1.14
1.14
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.80
1.20
0.60
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Cukaricki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cukaricki over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cukaricki over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cukaricki over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cukaricki
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luka Adžić33%
Stefan Kovač33%
Novak Mićović0%
Samuel Owusu0%
Đorđe Ivanović0%
Muhammed Badammosi0%
Mihajlo Spasojevic0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Muhammed Badammosi67%
Đorđe Ivanović33%
Luka Adžić0%
Novak Mićović0%
Stefan Kovač0%
Samuel Owusu0%
Mihajlo Spasojevic0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Luka Adžić33%
Novak Mićović0%
Stefan Kovač0%
Samuel Owusu0%
Đorđe Ivanović0%
Muhammed Badammosi0%
Mihajlo Spasojevic0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luka Adžić0%
Novak Mićović0%
Stefan Kovač0%
Samuel Owusu0%
Đorđe Ivanović0%
Muhammed Badammosi0%
Mihajlo Spasojevic0%
Radnicki NIS · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aleksandr Shestyuk33%
Issah Abass17%
Luka Izderić17%
Damjan Krajišnik0%
Radomir Milosavljević0%
Franck Kanouté0%
Ivan Kostić0%
Stefan Veličković0%
Igor Ivanović0%
Marko Mijailović0%
Bojan Kovačević0%
Miloš Spasić0%
Uroš Vitas0%
Ranko Jokić0%
Kwaku Bonsu Osei Gaucho0%
Aleksandar Vidović0%
Ibrahim Mustapha0%
Nikola Zečević0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marko Mijailović50%
Uroš Vitas50%
Ranko Jokić40%
Issah Abass33%
Radomir Milosavljević33%
Kwaku Bonsu Osei Gaucho33%
Aleksandar Vidović33%
Bojan Kovačević25%
Nikola Zečević25%
Damjan Krajišnik20%
Franck Kanouté20%
Miloš Spasić20%
Ivan Kostić0%
Stefan Veličković0%
Igor Ivanović0%
Aleksandr Shestyuk0%
Ibrahim Mustapha0%
Luka Izderić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miloš Spasić40%
Damjan Krajišnik0%
Issah Abass0%
Radomir Milosavljević0%
Franck Kanouté0%
Ivan Kostić0%
Stefan Veličković0%
Igor Ivanović0%
Marko Mijailović0%
Bojan Kovačević0%
Uroš Vitas0%
Ranko Jokić0%
Kwaku Bonsu Osei Gaucho0%
Aleksandar Vidović0%
Aleksandr Shestyuk0%
Ibrahim Mustapha0%
Nikola Zečević0%
Luka Izderić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Issah Abass50%
Franck Kanouté40%
Aleksandr Shestyuk33%
Damjan Krajišnik0%
Radomir Milosavljević0%
Ivan Kostić0%
Stefan Veličković0%
Igor Ivanović0%
Marko Mijailović0%
Bojan Kovačević0%
Miloš Spasić0%
Uroš Vitas0%
Ranko Jokić0%
Kwaku Bonsu Osei Gaucho0%
Aleksandar Vidović0%
Ibrahim Mustapha0%
Nikola Zečević0%
Luka Izderić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (32)
€115m
FP (30)
€48m
VOJ (29)
€30m
RN (26)
€11m
TBT (24)
€10m
NP (21)
€10m
CUK (23)
€10m
R1 (26)
€9m
RS (26)
€9m
ML (28)
€8m
NAP (24)
€7m
JAV (21)
€5m
FSZ (21)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
FV (20)
€3m
Cukaricki's squad is €1m less valuable than Radnicki NIS's (€10m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€62m
FP (15)
€24m
VOJ (15)
€13m
TBT (9)
€5m
RN (11)
€4m
ML (10)
€4m
R1 (10)
€4m
CUK (8)
€4m
NP (9)
€3m
RS (10)
€3m
JAV (9)
€2m
NAP (9)
€2m
FSZ (8)
€2m
GRA (8)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
Cukaricki and Radnicki NIS have a similar attack value (both €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (6)
€21m
FP (2)
€11m
VOJ (4)
€7m
R1 (6)
€3m
NP (3)
€2m
CUK (5)
€2m
RS (5)
€2m
TBT (4)
€1m
ML (6)
€1m
RN (3)
€1m
JAV (2)
€1m
FSZ (4)
€1m
NAP (3)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
Cukaricki's midfield is €2m more valuable than Radnicki NIS's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€33m
FP (13)
€14m
VOJ (10)
€9m
RN (12)
€5m
NP (9)
€5m
NAP (12)
€5m
RS (11)
€4m
TBT (11)
€4m
CUK (10)
€3m
JAV (10)
€3m
R1 (10)
€3m
ML (12)
€2m
FSZ (9)
€2m
GRA (8)
€2m
FV (8)
€1m
Cukaricki's defence is €2m less valuable than Radnicki NIS's (€3m vs €5m).
Serbia: Super Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Super Liga stats & trends →