Cukaricki are tipped to win, with a 44% chance of taking the match home, a 29% chance of a draw and a 27% chance of Radnicki NIS winning. The model expects a total of 2.4 goals, most likely a 2-goal game, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 14%. Home side Cukaricki average 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Radnicki NIS average 1.0 scored and 1.18 conceded on the road versus similar teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 99.6%, Under 6.5 at 98.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.8%, Over 19.5 fouls at 96.3%, Under 5.5 at 96.1%, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.7%, Over 21.5 fouls at 91.4% and Away under 2.5 goals at 91.0%. The recent form shows Cukaricki coming off two straight defeats and a 0-5 loss to Vojvodina, while Radnicki NIS returns from a draw, 1-1 with Radnicki 1923.
Advertisement
šÆ 1. Model Analysis
Cukaricki win
43.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS win
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
Cukaricki
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.43
1.36
1.50
0.94
1.38
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.00
0.67
1.67
0.00
2.33
vs Similar (21)
1.14
1.29
1.40
1.50
0.91
1.09
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.33
3.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnicki NIS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnicki NIS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.17
1.14
1.14
1.00
1.19
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
1.25
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.20
vs Similar (22)
1.14
1.14
1.27
1.09
1.00
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Cukaricki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.5%
Under 1.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.3%
Under 2.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.2%
Under 3.5
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.3%
No
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
10.8%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.4%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
4.8%
Cukaricki goals ↓
Radnicki NIS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
7.8%
4.8%
1.7%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.7%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.4%
8.9%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.9%
4.1%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cukaricki goals (down), columns = Radnicki NIS goals (across).
Advertisement
šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.00
Vojvodina
2.14
IMT Novi Beograd
1.86
Radnicki 1923
1.67
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
1.60
Cukaricki
1.43
Mladost Lucani
1.43
Radnik Surdulica
1.33
FK Partizan
1.17
OFK Beograd
1.14
Novi Pazar
1.14
Macva
1.00
Radnicki NIS
0.83
Zemun
0.14
Cukaricki is 0.60 points better than Radnicki NIS in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 0.83).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.20
Vojvodina
2.14
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
1.80
FK Partizan
1.67
IMT Novi Beograd
1.43
Cukaricki
1.29
Radnicki 1923
1.17
OFK Beograd
1.14
Radnik Surdulica
1.00
Mladost Lucani
1.00
Macva
0.71
Novi Pazar
0.71
Radnicki NIS
0.50
Zemun
0.29
Cukaricki is 0.79 goals better than Radnicki NIS in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 0.50).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.20
IMT Novi Beograd
0.57
Vojvodina
0.86
Mladost Lucani
0.86
Radnicki 1923
1.00
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
1.00
Radnicki NIS
1.00
Novi Pazar
1.14
Radnik Surdulica
1.50
FK Partizan
1.67
OFK Beograd
1.71
Cukaricki
1.71
Macva
1.86
Zemun
2.00
Cukaricki is 0.71 goals worse than Radnicki NIS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.00).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
FK Partizan
63%
FK Crvena Zvezda
61%
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
61%
Radnicki 1923
58%
Radnicki NIS
55%
OFK Beograd
54%
IMT Novi Beograd
53%
Vojvodina
52%
Novi Pazar
49%
Radnik Surdulica
48%
Cukaricki
41%
Mladost Lucani
38%
Macva
38%
Zemun
37%
Cukaricki is 13.9 percentage points worse than Radnicki NIS in terms of average possession (41% vs 55%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cukaricki or Draw
72.9%
Avg Implied -
44%
29%
27%
covers Cukaricki + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cukaricki or Radnicki NIS
70.6%
Avg Implied -
44%
29%
27%
covers Cukaricki + Radnicki NIS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Radnicki NIS
56.5%
Avg Implied -
44%
29%
27%
covers Draw + Radnicki NIS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cukaricki over/under 0.5
Over
75.3%
Under
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cukaricki over/under 1.5
Over
40.7%
Under
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cukaricki over/under 2.5
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cukaricki over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 0.5
Over
65.1%
Under
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 1.5
Over
28.4%
Under
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 2.5
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
āļø 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cukaricki, so a minus line means Cukaricki give that many goals of a start and Radnicki NIS receive them. At -1, Cukaricki must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cukaricki win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cukaricki)
Cukaricki -2
8.0%
Draw -2
13.4%
Radnicki NIS +2
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cukaricki)
Cukaricki -1
21.4%
Draw -1
22.1%
Radnicki NIS +1
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cukaricki)
Cukaricki +1
72.9%
Draw +1
16.4%
Radnicki NIS -1
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cukaricki)
Cukaricki +2
89.3%
Draw +2
7.6%
Radnicki NIS -2
3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cukaricki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.71
0.64
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.62
0.70
0.40
0.55
0.82
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnicki NIS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnicki NIS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.43
0.43
0.31
0.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
0.50
0.00
0.33
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.45
0.55
0.45
0.36
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Cukaricki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cukaricki over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cukaricki over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cukaricki over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cukaricki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.64
0.86
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.67
0.70
1.10
0.36
0.27
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnicki NIS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnicki NIS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.71
0.71
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.75
0.67
1.00
0.80
0.60
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.68
0.73
0.64
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Cukaricki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cukaricki over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cukaricki over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cukaricki over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (32)
€115m
FP (30)
€48m
VOJ (29)
€30m
OB (28)
€18m
ŽP (24)
€13m
INB (23)
€12m
RN (26)
€11m
NP (21)
€10m
CUK (23)
€10m
R1 (26)
€9m
RS (26)
€9m
ML (28)
€8m
ZEM (22)
€5m
MAC (19)
€4m
Cukaricki's squad is €1m less valuable than Radnicki NIS's (€10m vs €11m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€62m
FP (15)
€24m
VOJ (15)
€13m
ŽP (9)
€7m
OB (10)
€6m
RN (11)
€4m
ML (10)
€4m
R1 (10)
€4m
CUK (8)
€4m
INB (8)
€4m
NP (9)
€3m
RS (10)
€3m
ZEM (9)
€2m
MAC (7)
€2m
Cukaricki and Radnicki NIS have a similar attack value (both €4m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (6)
€21m
FP (2)
€11m
VOJ (4)
€7m
OB (8)
€4m
INB (3)
€4m
R1 (6)
€3m
NP (3)
€2m
CUK (5)
€2m
RS (5)
€2m
ZEM (5)
€1m
ML (6)
€1m
ŽP (4)
€1m
RN (3)
€1m
MAC (3)
€1m
Cukaricki's midfield is €2m more valuable than Radnicki NIS's (€2m vs €1m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€33m
FP (13)
€14m
VOJ (10)
€9m
OB (10)
€8m
ŽP (11)
€6m
RN (12)
€5m
NP (9)
€5m
RS (11)
€4m
INB (12)
€4m
CUK (10)
€3m
R1 (10)
€3m
ML (12)
€2m
MAC (9)
€2m
ZEM (8)
€1m
Cukaricki's defence is €2m less valuable than Radnicki NIS's (€3m vs €5m).
Serbia: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FK Crvena Zvezda
Vojvodina
IMT Novi Beograd
Mladost Lucani
Radnicki 1923
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
Radnik Surdulica
Novi Pazar
OFK Beograd
FK Partizan
Macva
Zemun