De Graafschap are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model favouring a home win. The expected total of four goals and a high-scoring 6+ tally suggests an open match, and the most likely scoreline is 2-1 for De Graafschap, a 8.1 % probability. Home form shows an average of 2.21 goals scored and 1.43 conceded against similar opposition, while Almere City, on a two-game winning run, averages 2.15 goals for and 2.08 against in away fixtures. The probabilities are 49 % for a home win, 21 % for a draw, and 29 % for an away win. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 91.8 %, Over 2.5 at 76.6 %, Over 8.5 corners at 75.2 %, BTTS Yes at 74.9 %, Under 5.5 cards at 89.3 %, Under 4.5 cards at 77.9 %, Under 25.5 fouls at 75.1 %, and Over 19.5 fouls at 72.2 %. All selections carry the stated percentages.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, De Graafschap, failed to secure the win the model had predicted, finishing with a 2-2 draw that left the prediction wrong. The model had given the home side a 49 % chance of victory, yet the match ended in a stalemate. The match was high-scoring, matching the model’s expectation of a 6+ total, and the scoreline of 2-2 was one of the most likely outcomes at 8.1 %. The suggested picks all hit: Over 1.5 goals at 91.8 %, Over 2.5 at 76.6 %, and BTTS Yes at 74.9 %. The game reflected the recent form of both sides, with De Graafschap on a run of two straight defeats and Almere City on a two-game winning streak.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
De Graafschap win✗ Miss
49.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Almere City FC win✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
De Graafschap
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.63
2.21
1.43
1.94
1.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
2.07
1.63
2.21
1.43
1.94
1.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Almere City FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almere City FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.60
2.33
1.20
2.20
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
2.22
1.59
2.29
1.14
2.15
2.08
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.67
3.00
2.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.8%
Under 1.5
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
76.6%
Under 2.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.2%
Under 3.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
74.9%
No
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.1%
1-1
7.8%
2-2 ✓
7.1%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
6.1%
3-2
5.4%
2-0
4.6%
2-3
4.2%
De Graafschap goals ↓
Almere City FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.5%
2.4%
2.7%
1.6%
0.7%
1
3.3%
7.8%
6.2%
3.7%
1.6%
2
4.6%
8.1%
7.1%
4.2%
1.8%
3
3.5%
6.1%
5.4%
3.1%
1.4%
4
2.0%
3.5%
3.1%
1.8%
0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = De Graafschap goals (down), columns = Almere City FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ADO Den Haag
2.34
Cambuur
2.05
Willem II
1.84
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
FC Volendam
1.50
Vitesse
1.47
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
De Graafschap is 0.05 points better than Almere City FC in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 1.55).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ADO Den Haag
2.37
Almere City FC
2.02
Cambuur
1.97
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Jong PSV U21
1.74
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
Willem II
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
Jong Ajax
1.32
VVV Venlo
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
De Graafschap is 0.10 goals worse than Almere City FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.93 vs 2.02).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
ADO Den Haag
0.97
Willem II
1.05
Cambuur
1.26
Roda
1.40
Vitesse
1.45
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong Utrecht
1.63
FC OSS
1.68
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
Jong Ajax
1.92
MVV
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
De Graafschap is 0.04 goals better than Almere City FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
ADO Den Haag
60%
Cambuur
58%
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Willem II
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
De Graafschap is 7.9 percentage points better than Almere City FC in terms of average possession (56% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
De Graafschap
For 5.1 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 11.1 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Almere City FC
For 4.8 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 7.7 · Total 20.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
De Graafschap
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.8
11.7
12.0
2.9
2.9
2.9
22.6
22.5
22.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
11.8
11.7
12.0
2.9
2.9
2.9
22.6
22.5
22.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
73%
67%
80%
36%
33%
38%
55%
54%
56%
% under line
27%
33%
20%
64%
67%
62%
45%
46%
44%
This opponent (Almere City FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almere City FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
11.5
10.3
2.6
2.5
2.7
21.0
20.4
21.5
vs Stronger (1)
8.0
-
8.0
1.0
-
1.0
25.0
-
25.0
vs Similar (45)
11.0
11.5
10.5
2.7
2.6
2.8
20.8
20.9
20.7
vs Weaker (4)
10.5
11.5
9.5
2.2
1.5
3.0
21.8
15.5
28.0
% over line
61%
65%
57%
30%
31%
29%
50%
43%
57%
% under line
39%
35%
43%
70%
69%
71%
50%
57%
43%
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.2
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.8
Dordrecht
11.7
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong AZ
10.9
Jong PSV U21
10.8
Willem II
10.8
Helmond Sport
10.6
Jong Ajax
10.6
Emmen
10.6
FC Volendam
10.6
FC Eindhoven
10.5
Waalwijk
10.5
MVV
10.4
ADO Den Haag
10.3
Roda
10.3
Vitesse
10.0
Jong Utrecht
9.8
Cambuur
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.3
FC OSS
4.2
Dordrecht
4.2
Cambuur
4.0
Emmen
3.8
Jong Ajax
3.8
ADO Den Haag
3.8
Den Bosch
3.8
FC Volendam
3.5
VVV Venlo
3.5
Roda
3.3
Jong AZ
3.3
Helmond Sport
3.3
Jong PSV U21
3.3
De Graafschap
3.2
Willem II
3.2
MVV
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.2
Waalwijk
3.2
Jong Utrecht
3.1
Almere City FC
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.3
ADO Den Haag
27.1
Vitesse
27.1
Cambuur
27.0
Jong Utrecht
25.8
Emmen
25.7
Helmond Sport
25.7
Dordrecht
25.6
Roda
24.7
Jong Ajax
24.6
Jong PSV U21
24.0
VVV Venlo
23.8
Jong AZ
23.5
Den Bosch
23.2
FC Volendam
22.7
De Graafschap
22.7
MVV
22.7
FC Eindhoven
22.7
Waalwijk
22.4
Willem II
22.3
Almere City FC
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
64.0%
Under 9.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
40.0%
Under 3.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
56.1%
Under 21.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
De Graafschap
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
0.79
0.43
1.00
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.90
0.57
0.79
0.43
1.00
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Almere City FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almere City FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.87
0.93
0.60
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.81
0.93
0.57
0.54
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
De Graafschap over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
De Graafschap over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
De Graafschap over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almere City FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almere City FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almere City FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
De Graafschap
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.07
1.43
1.00
0.94
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.17
1.07
1.43
1.00
0.94
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Almere City FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almere City FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.73
1.40
0.60
1.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.48
0.78
1.36
0.57
1.62
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
De Graafschap over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
De Graafschap over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
De Graafschap over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almere City FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almere City FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almere City FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (32)
€14m
WI (26)
€14m
DOR (34)
€14m
CAM (26)
€12m
ADH (25)
€11m
ACF (28)
€10m
EMM (33)
€9m
DG (22)
€9m
ROD (28)
€7m
WAA (25)
€7m
DB (24)
€7m
VV (29)
€6m
FE (27)
€6m
MVV (28)
€6m
HS (23)
€6m
VIT (25)
€6m
FO (28)
€5m
De Graafschap's squad is €2m less valuable than Almere City FC's (€9m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WI (12)
€9m
DOR (15)
€7m
ACF (10)
€6m
DG (11)
€5m
ADH (12)
€5m
FV (12)
€4m
CAM (10)
€4m
EMM (12)
€4m
ROD (12)
€3m
WAA (10)
€3m
DB (9)
€2m
FE (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
HS (8)
€2m
FO (11)
€2m
VIT (8)
€2m
MVV (11)
€2m
De Graafschap and Almere City FC have a similar attack value (both €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (7)
€3m
EMM (8)
€2m
ADH (3)
€2m
ROD (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DB (5)
€2m
CAM (5)
€2m
FE (4)
€1m
WI (3)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
VIT (5)
€1m
ACF (5)
€1m
FO (4)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
DG (3)
€1m
VV (5)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
De Graafschap and Almere City FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (13)
€7m
CAM (11)
€6m
DOR (14)
€6m
ADH (10)
€4m
WI (11)
€4m
WAA (12)
€4m
ACF (13)
€3m
EMM (13)
€3m
VV (14)
€3m
MVV (13)
€3m
ROD (11)
€3m
HS (10)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
VIT (12)
€2m
FE (12)
€2m
FO (13)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
De Graafschap's defence is €1m less valuable than Almere City FC's (€2m vs €3m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
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ADO Den Haag
Willem II
Cambuur
Waalwijk
Roda
Vitesse
Jong PSV U21
Den Bosch
Dordrecht
FC Eindhoven
Jong Utrecht
VVV Venlo
Emmen
FC OSS
Jong AZ
Helmond Sport
MVV
Jong Ajax
FC Volendam