Dečić vs Arsenal Tivat Result & Analysis

Dečić’s recent four-game winning streak and a 2-1 triumph over Jezero give the home side a clear edge, reflected in the model’s 63% probability for a home win. The model also sees a 3.5-goal average, with the most likely total being three goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1, with a 9.7% chance. Dečić’s home form shows an impressive 3.0 goals scored per game and a clean sheet average of 0.0 against similarly strong opponents, while Arsenal Tivat’s away form yields 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match. The model’s suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 86.7% probability. The probabilities for the match result are 63% home win, 21% draw, and 17% away win. All selections are named with their exact labels and percentages, and no other outcomes are assigned win probabilities.

The upset came early, as Dečić’s 4-game winning streak ended with a 2-4 loss to Arsenal Tivat, the away side’s first victory after a string of defeats. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 63% probability, but the model’s call was wrong, with the actual result an away win. The only other selection was Over 1.5, with an 86.7% chance, and it hit. The final score of 2-4 confirmed the model’s prediction of a high-scoring match, yet it missed the expected home triumph. The game delivered more goals than the 3-point expectation, proving the model’s odds on total goals were spot on.