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Dečić vs Arsenal Tivat Result & Analysis

Date: 30/11/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 4-2
Dečić
Dečić
Vs
58%
27%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Dečić are tipped to win, with a 58% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw and only a 15% chance of an Arsenal Tivat victory. The model predicts an average of 2.3 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Dečić at 14.8%. Dečić’s home form shows they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.08 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Arsenal Tivat, playing away, averages only 0.42 goals scored and concedes 1.5. The model’s selection, Under 3.5, carries a 79.5% probability. Dečić are on a four-game winning run, having beaten Jezero 2-1, whereas Arsenal Tivat come off a 1-2 loss to Otrant-Olympic. The match is expected to be a narrow home win with a low-scoring 1-0 outcome.

Results analysis

Dečić’s 4-2 victory over Arsenal Tivat was a far-flung result, with the final score well beyond the model’s expected total of 2.3 goals. The home side’s current form, a four-game winning streak, helped them secure the win, while Arsenal Tivat, coming off a defeat, struggled to keep up. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win with a 58% probability, and that call proved correct. The suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals, at 79.5%, missed as the match produced six goals. Overall, the game delivered a high-scoring, decisive outcome that exceeded every prediction.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dečić win✓ Hit
58.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat win✗ Miss
14.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DečićDečić

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L31W11D02L21W10W01L11D10W13LA·JEZ13/09H·SUT17/09A·ARS21/09H·BOK27/09A·MLA01/10H·JED05/10A·MOR18/10A·PET02/11H·JEZ09/11A·SUT22/11
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.271.401.130.801.40
vs Stronger (2)1.003.000.002.002.004.00
vs Similar (25)1.081.201.501.080.691.31
vs Weaker (3)1.330.671.501.001.000.00
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W11D02L00D01L24L32W02L00D02LH·BOK17/09H·DEČ21/09A·MLA27/09A·JED01/10H·MOR08/10A·BUD18/10H·PET29/10A·JEZ02/11H·SUT09/11A·BOK22/11
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.301.430.710.441.81
vs Stronger (6)0.672.000.670.330.673.67
vs Similar (22)0.861.231.400.900.421.50
vs Weaker (2)2.000.004.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%021%128%220%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.5%
Under 1.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.0%
Under 2.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.5%
Under 3.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.5%
No
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.8%
2-0
12.9%
1-1
12.2%
0-0
10.9%
2-1
9.0%
3-0
7.0%
0-1
5.7%
3-1
4.9%
Dečić goals ↓
Arsenal Tivat goals →
01234
011%5.7%2.4%0.6%0.1%
115%12%3.9%0.9%0.2%
213%9.0%3.2%0.7%0.1%
37.0%4.9%1.7%0.4%0.1%
42.8%2.0%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dečić goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tivat goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sutjeska
2.00
Mornar
1.92
Petrovac
1.42
Dečić
1.42
Buducnost Podgorica
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Mladost DG
1.28
Jezero
1.24
Bokelj
1.05
Jedinstvo
0.97
Grbalj
0.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.00
Dečić is 0.14 points better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.28).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
1.69
Mornar
1.42
Mladost DG
1.36
Petrovac
1.22
Jezero
1.21
Dečić
1.19
Bokelj
1.05
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
1.00
Jedinstvo
0.83
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.50
Grbalj
0.00
Dečić is 0.19 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Mornar
0.81
Buducnost Podgorica
0.97
Grbalj
1.00
Petrovac
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Dečić
1.25
Bokelj
1.26
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Jezero
1.29
Jedinstvo
1.36
Mladost DG
1.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
4.00
Dečić is 0.03 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DečićDečić

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L20W11D01L10W00D00D01L00D10WA·JEZ13/09H·SUT17/09A·ARS21/09H·BOK27/09A·MLA01/10H·JED05/10A·MOR18/10A·PET02/11H·JEZ09/11A·SUT22/11
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.470.670.400.330.53
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.002.000.002.00
vs Similar (25)0.560.360.750.250.380.46
vs Weaker (3)0.330.330.500.500.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W11D00D00D00D11D21W01L00D02LH·BOK17/09H·DEČ21/09A·MLA27/09A·JED01/10H·MOR08/10A·BUD18/10H·PET29/10A·JEZ02/11H·SUT09/11A·BOK22/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.430.860.290.310.56
vs Stronger (6)0.170.500.000.330.330.67
vs Similar (22)0.590.450.900.300.330.58
vs Weaker (2)1.500.003.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DečićDečić

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L11D00D01L11D10W01L10W10W03LA·JEZ13/09H·SUT17/09A·ARS21/09H·BOK27/09A·MLA01/10H·JED05/10A·MOR18/10A·PET02/11H·JEZ09/11A·SUT22/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.800.730.730.530.87
vs Stronger (2)1.001.000.000.002.002.00
vs Similar (25)0.560.840.750.830.380.85
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D02L00D01L13L11D01L00D00DH·BOK17/09H·DEČ21/09A·MLA27/09A·JED01/10H·MOR08/10A·BUD18/10H·PET29/10A·JEZ02/11H·SUT09/11A·BOK22/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.870.570.430.121.25
vs Stronger (6)0.501.500.670.000.333.00
vs Similar (22)0.270.770.500.600.080.92
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
GRB (2)
€0m
Dečić's squad is €2m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
Dečić and Arsenal Tivat have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
Dečić and Arsenal Tivat have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
Dečić's defence is €1m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€2m vs €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
DEČ wins
3
Draws
3
AT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dečić vs Arsenal Tivat · H/A from DEČ
DateH/AGameScore
21/09/25AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ1-1
12/04/25AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ1-0
22/02/25HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat0-0
06/10/24AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ0-0
18/09/24HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat1-3
25/05/24HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat3-1
30/03/24AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ0-2
02/12/23HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat0-1

DečićDečić

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/11/25ASutjeska Vs DEČ3-1
09/11/25HDEČ Vs Jezero1-0
02/11/25APetrovac Vs DEČ1-1
18/10/25AMornar Vs DEČ1-0
05/10/25HDEČ Vs Jedinstvo1-0
01/10/25AMladost DG Vs DEČ1-2
27/09/25HDEČ Vs Bokelj0-2
21/09/25AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ1-1
17/09/25HDEČ Vs Sutjeska3-1
13/09/25AJezero Vs DEČ4-0

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/11/25ABokelj Vs AT2-0
09/11/25HAT Vs Sutjeska0-0
02/11/25AJezero Vs AT2-0
29/10/25HAT Vs Petrovac3-2
18/10/25ABuducnost Podgorica Vs AT4-2
08/10/25HAT Vs Mornar0-1
01/10/25AJedinstvo Vs AT0-0
27/09/25AMladost DG Vs AT2-0
21/09/25HAT Vs Dečić1-1
17/09/25HAT Vs Bokelj2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dečić
Dečić
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWL1.28
HomeDWLWW1.52
AwayDWLDL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%40%20%
AVG goals2.162.282.04
Over 1.5 %68%68%68%
Over 2.5 %32%40%24%
Over 3.5 %22%28%16%
Scored1.021.240.80
Conceded1.141.041.24
BTTS48%44%52%
Clean Sheet34%40%28%
Corners14.0017.0011.00
Cards3.506.001.00
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL1.14
HomeWDLWD1.54
AwayLDLLL0.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%38%15%
AVG goals2.182.082.27
Over 1.5 %64%58%69%
Over 2.5 %34%33%35%
Over 3.5 %24%21%27%
Scored0.921.210.65
Conceded1.260.881.62
BTTS38%46%31%
Clean Sheet36%42%31%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SutjeskaSutjeska3672
61%
2.0
6136+25
2.7
72%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.71.0
-
2MornarMornar3669
56%
1.9
5129+22
2.2
69%
50%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.40.8
-
3PetrovacPetrovac3651
36%
1.4
4436+8
2.2
67%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.0
-
4DečićDečić3651
39%
1.4
4345-2
2.4
64%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.2
-
5Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3648
36%
1.3
3635+1
2.0
61%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.01.0
-
6JezeroJezero3847
32%
1.2
4649-3
2.5
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
7Mladost DGMladost DG3646
39%
1.3
4954-5
2.9
64%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.5
-
8Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3646
33%
1.3
3646-10
2.3
64%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.3
-
9BokeljBokelj3840
24%
1.1
4048-8
2.3
68%
39%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.3
-
10JedinstvoJedinstvo3635
25%
1.0
3049-19
2.2
58%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.4
-
11GrbaljGrbalj21
0%
0.5
02-2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
12Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)20
0%
0.0
18-7
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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