PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Dečić vs Arsenal Tivat Result & Analysis

Date: 20/05/2026
Time: 18:00
Final 1-2
Dečić
Dečić
Vs
53%
27%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dečić win✗ Miss
53.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat win✓ Hit
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DečićDečić

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L10W00D12L42W01L00D11D30W03LH·SUT15/03A·ARS21/03H·BOK04/04A·MLA08/04H·JED12/04A·MOR18/04H·BUD26/04A·PET02/05H·JEZ10/05A·SUT16/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.231.531.070.871.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.071.261.381.080.791.43
vs Weaker (3)2.331.002.501.002.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L21W20W01L20W31W00D11D03LH·BOK15/03H·DEČ21/03A·MLA04/04A·JED08/04H·MOR12/04A·BUD18/04H·PET26/04A·JEZ02/05H·SUT09/05A·BOK16/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.301.000.870.871.73
vs Stronger (7)1.001.570.670.331.252.50
vs Similar (23)0.911.221.081.000.731.45
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.9%
Under 1.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.9%
Under 2.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.7%
Under 3.5
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.7%
No
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
12.3%
2-0
10.8%
0-0
9.6%
2-1
9.4%
0-1
6.2%
3-0
5.7%
1-2 ✓
5.2%
Dečić goals ↓
Arsenal Tivat goals →
01234
09.6%6.2%3.2%0.9%0.2%
112%13%5.2%1.5%0.3%
211%9.4%4.1%1.2%0.3%
35.7%5.0%2.2%0.6%0.1%
42.3%2.0%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dečić goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tivat goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sutjeska
2.00
Mornar
1.92
Petrovac
1.42
Dečić
1.42
Buducnost Podgorica
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Mladost DG
1.28
Jezero
1.24
Bokelj
1.05
Jedinstvo
0.97
Grbalj
0.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.00
Dečić is 0.14 points better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.28).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
1.69
Mornar
1.42
Mladost DG
1.36
Petrovac
1.22
Jezero
1.21
Dečić
1.19
Bokelj
1.05
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
1.00
Jedinstvo
0.83
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.50
Grbalj
0.00
Dečić is 0.19 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Mornar
0.81
Buducnost Podgorica
0.97
Grbalj
1.00
Petrovac
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Dečić
1.25
Bokelj
1.26
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Jezero
1.29
Jedinstvo
1.36
Mladost DG
1.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
4.00
Dečić is 0.03 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DečićDečić

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W00D01L21W00D00D10W10W01LH·SUT15/03A·ARS21/03H·BOK04/04A·MLA08/04H·JED12/04A·MOR18/04H·BUD26/04A·PET02/05H·JEZ10/05A·SUT16/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.430.600.470.600.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.560.440.540.460.570.43
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W01L00D10W00D10W10W00D00D01LH·BOK15/03H·DEČ21/03A·MLA04/04A·JED08/04H·MOR12/04A·BUD18/04H·PET26/04A·JEZ02/05H·SUT09/05A·BOK16/05
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.470.600.330.330.60
vs Stronger (7)0.290.290.000.000.500.50
vs Similar (23)0.520.520.750.420.270.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DečićDečić

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D11D21W01L00D01L20W02LH·SUT15/03A·ARS21/03H·BOK04/04A·MLA08/04H·JED12/04A·MOR18/04H·BUD26/04A·PET02/05H·JEZ10/05A·SUT16/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.800.930.600.271.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.520.810.850.620.211.00
vs Weaker (3)1.330.671.500.501.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D21W10W01L10W21W00D11D02LH·BOK15/03H·DEČ21/03A·MLA04/04A·JED08/04H·MOR12/04A·BUD18/04H·PET26/04A·JEZ02/05H·SUT09/05A·BOK16/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.830.400.530.531.13
vs Stronger (7)0.711.290.670.330.752.00
vs Similar (23)0.390.700.330.580.450.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
GRB (2)
€0m
Dečić's squad is €2m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
Dečić and Arsenal Tivat have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
Dečić and Arsenal Tivat have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
Dečić's defence is €1m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€2m vs €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
DEČ wins
3
Draws
2
AT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dečić vs Arsenal Tivat · H/A from DEČ
DateH/AGameScore
21/03/26AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ0-1
30/11/25HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat4-2
21/09/25AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ1-1
12/04/25AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ1-0
22/02/25HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat0-0
06/10/24AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ0-0
18/09/24HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat1-3
25/05/24HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat3-1

DečićDečić

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/26ASutjeska Vs DEČ3-0
10/05/26HDEČ Vs Jezero3-0
02/05/26APetrovac Vs DEČ1-1
26/04/26HDEČ Vs Buducnost Podgorica0-0
18/04/26AMornar Vs DEČ1-0
12/04/26HDEČ Vs Jedinstvo4-2
08/04/26AMladost DG Vs DEČ2-1
04/04/26HDEČ Vs Bokelj0-0
21/03/26AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ0-1
15/03/26HDEČ Vs Sutjeska1-2

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/26ABokelj Vs AT3-0
09/05/26HAT Vs Sutjeska1-1
02/05/26AJezero Vs AT0-0
26/04/26HAT Vs Petrovac3-1
18/04/26ABuducnost Podgorica Vs AT0-2
12/04/26HAT Vs Mornar0-1
08/04/26AJedinstvo Vs AT0-2
04/04/26AMladost DG Vs AT1-2
21/03/26HAT Vs Dečić0-1
15/03/26HAT Vs Bokelj1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dečić
Dečić
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWL1.40
HomeLDWDW1.64
AwayWLLDL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%44%28%
AVG goals2.342.602.08
Over 1.5 %64%64%64%
Over 2.5 %40%44%36%
Over 3.5 %22%32%12%
Scored1.161.480.84
Conceded1.181.121.24
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet32%36%28%
Corners14.0017.0011.00
Cards3.506.001.00
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDL1.26
HomeWLLWD1.68
AwayWWWDL0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%44%20%
AVG goals2.161.882.44
Over 1.5 %62%52%72%
Over 2.5 %34%32%36%
Over 3.5 %20%16%24%
Scored0.941.160.72
Conceded1.220.721.72
BTTS38%44%32%
Clean Sheet36%44%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SutjeskaSutjeska3672
61%
2.0
6136+25
2.7
72%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.71.0
-
2MornarMornar3669
56%
1.9
5129+22
2.2
69%
50%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.40.8
-
3PetrovacPetrovac3651
36%
1.4
4436+8
2.2
67%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.0
-
4DečićDečić3651
39%
1.4
4345-2
2.4
64%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.2
-
5Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3648
36%
1.3
3635+1
2.0
61%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.01.0
-
6JezeroJezero3847
32%
1.2
4649-3
2.5
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
7Mladost DGMladost DG3646
39%
1.3
4954-5
2.9
64%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.5
-
8Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3646
33%
1.3
3646-10
2.3
64%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.3
-
9BokeljBokelj3840
24%
1.1
4048-8
2.3
68%
39%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.3
-
10JedinstvoJedinstvo3635
25%
1.0
3049-19
2.2
58%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.4
-
11GrbaljGrbalj21
0%
0.5
02-2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
12Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)20
0%
0.0
18-7
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

← all matches