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Dečić vs Jezero Result & Analysis

Date: 10/05/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 3-0
Dečić
Dečić
Vs
44%
30%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Jezero
Jezero
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dečić win✓ Hit
44.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jezero win✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DečićDečić

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L21W12L10W00D12L42W01L00D11DH·PET07/03A·JEZ11/03H·SUT15/03A·ARS21/03H·BOK04/04A·MLA08/04H·JED12/04A·MOR18/04H·BUD26/04A·PET02/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.231.471.130.871.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.041.261.311.150.791.36
vs Weaker (3)2.331.002.501.002.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JezeroJezero

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W12L13L01L02L02L11D20W11D00DA·ARS07/03H·DEČ11/03A·MLA15/03H·JED21/03A·MOR04/04A·BUD08/04H·PET12/04A·BOK18/04A·SUT26/04H·ARS02/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.201.331.000.931.40
vs Stronger (7)0.861.001.330.670.501.25
vs Similar (23)1.221.261.331.081.091.45
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%021%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.8%
Under 1.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.0%
Under 2.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.4%
No
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
12.3%
0-0
11.5%
2-0
9.1%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.3%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
4.6%
Dečić goals ↓
Jezero goals →
01234
011%8.3%4.6%1.4%0.3%
112%14%6.1%1.9%0.5%
29.1%8.6%4.1%1.3%0.3%
34.1%3.8%1.8%0.6%0.1%
41.4%1.3%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dečić goals (down), columns = Jezero goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sutjeska
2.00
Mornar
1.92
Petrovac
1.42
Dečić
1.42
Buducnost Podgorica
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Mladost DG
1.28
Jezero
1.24
Bokelj
1.05
Jedinstvo
0.97
Grbalj
0.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.00
Dečić is 0.18 points better than Jezero in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.24).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
1.69
Mornar
1.42
Mladost DG
1.36
Petrovac
1.22
Jezero
1.21
Dečić
1.19
Bokelj
1.05
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
1.00
Jedinstvo
0.83
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.50
Grbalj
0.00
Dečić is 0.02 goals worse than Jezero in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.21).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Mornar
0.81
Buducnost Podgorica
0.97
Grbalj
1.00
Petrovac
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Dečić
1.25
Bokelj
1.26
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Jezero
1.29
Jedinstvo
1.36
Mladost DG
1.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
4.00
Dečić is 0.04 goals better than Jezero in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.29).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DečićDečić

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W11D10W00D01L21W00D00D10WH·PET07/03A·JEZ11/03H·SUT15/03A·ARS21/03H·BOK04/04A·MLA08/04H·JED12/04A·MOR18/04H·BUD26/04A·PET02/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.470.600.530.600.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.560.480.540.540.570.43
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JezeroJezero

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L10W00D02L01L10W20W00D00DA·ARS07/03H·DEČ11/03A·MLA15/03H·JED21/03A·MOR04/04A·BUD08/04H·PET12/04A·BOK18/04A·SUT26/04H·ARS02/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.500.470.470.400.53
vs Stronger (7)0.290.290.670.330.000.25
vs Similar (23)0.480.570.420.500.550.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DečićDečić

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L01L00D00D11D21W01L00D01LH·PET07/03A·JEZ11/03H·SUT15/03A·ARS21/03H·BOK04/04A·MLA08/04H·JED12/04A·MOR18/04H·BUD26/04A·PET02/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.770.870.600.270.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.480.780.770.620.210.93
vs Weaker (3)1.330.671.500.501.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JezeroJezero

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W03L01L00D01L01L00D11D00DA·ARS07/03H·DEČ11/03A·MLA15/03H·JED21/03A·MOR04/04A·BUD08/04H·PET12/04A·BOK18/04A·SUT26/04H·ARS02/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.700.870.530.530.87
vs Stronger (7)0.570.710.670.330.501.00
vs Similar (23)0.740.700.920.580.550.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
GRB (2)
€0m
Dečić's squad is €2m more valuable than Jezero's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
Dečić and Jezero have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
Dečić and Jezero have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
Dečić's defence is €1m more valuable than Jezero's (€2m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
DEČ wins
2
Draws
2
JEZ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dečić vs Jezero · H/A from DEČ
DateH/AGameScore
11/03/26AJezero Vs DEČ1-2
09/11/25HDEČ Vs Jezero1-0
13/09/25AJezero Vs DEČ4-0
10/05/25AJezero Vs DEČ1-1
12/03/25HDEČ Vs Jezero1-2
02/11/24AJezero Vs DEČ1-1
31/08/24HDEČ Vs Jezero1-0
12/05/24HDEČ Vs Jezero2-0

DečićDečić

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26APetrovac Vs DEČ1-1
26/04/26HDEČ Vs Buducnost Podgorica0-0
18/04/26AMornar Vs DEČ1-0
12/04/26HDEČ Vs Jedinstvo4-2
08/04/26AMladost DG Vs DEČ2-1
04/04/26HDEČ Vs Bokelj0-0
21/03/26AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ0-1
15/03/26HDEČ Vs Sutjeska1-2
11/03/26AJezero Vs DEČ1-2
07/03/26HDEČ Vs Petrovac0-1

JezeroJezero

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26HJEZ Vs Arsenal Tivat0-0
26/04/26ASutjeska Vs JEZ1-1
18/04/26ABokelj Vs JEZ0-2
12/04/26HJEZ Vs Petrovac1-1
08/04/26ABuducnost Podgorica Vs JEZ2-0
04/04/26AMornar Vs JEZ2-0
21/03/26HJEZ Vs Jedinstvo0-1
15/03/26AMladost DG Vs JEZ3-1
11/03/26HJEZ Vs Dečić1-2
07/03/26AArsenal Tivat Vs JEZ1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dečić
Dečić
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDD1.36
HomeLLDWD1.52
AwayWWLLD1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%40%28%
AVG goals2.322.602.04
Over 1.5 %64%64%64%
Over 2.5 %38%44%32%
Over 3.5 %22%32%12%
Scored1.141.400.88
Conceded1.181.201.16
BTTS52%52%52%
Clean Sheet30%32%28%
Corners14.0017.0011.00
Cards3.506.001.00
Jezero
Jezero
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWDD1.38
HomeDLLDD1.56
AwayLLLWD1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals2.382.562.20
Over 1.5 %72%80%64%
Over 2.5 %42%44%40%
Over 3.5 %20%24%16%
Scored1.201.440.96
Conceded1.181.121.24
BTTS54%60%48%
Clean Sheet28%32%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SutjeskaSutjeska3672
61%
2.0
6136+25
2.7
72%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.71.0
-
2MornarMornar3669
56%
1.9
5129+22
2.2
69%
50%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.40.8
-
3PetrovacPetrovac3651
36%
1.4
4436+8
2.2
67%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.0
-
4DečićDečić3651
39%
1.4
4345-2
2.4
64%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.2
-
5Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3648
36%
1.3
3635+1
2.0
61%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.01.0
-
6JezeroJezero3847
32%
1.2
4649-3
2.5
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
7Mladost DGMladost DG3646
39%
1.3
4954-5
2.9
64%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.5
-
8Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3646
33%
1.3
3646-10
2.3
64%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.3
-
9BokeljBokelj3840
24%
1.1
4048-8
2.3
68%
39%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.3
-
10JedinstvoJedinstvo3635
25%
1.0
3049-19
2.2
58%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.4
-
11GrbaljGrbalj21
0%
0.5
02-2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
12Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)20
0%
0.0
18-7
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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