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Dečić vs Mornar Result & Analysis

Date: 05/04/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 1-1
Dečić
Dečić
Vs
44%
33%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dečić win✗ Miss
44.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
33.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mornar win✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DečićDečić

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L02L01L12L10W11D00D00D11DA·JEZ03/12A·MOR10/12H·ISK18/02A·BUD23/02A·PET28/02H·RUD04/03A·SUT08/03H·ARS12/03A·JED18/03H·JEZ01/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.031.361.140.870.93
vs Stronger (2)1.001.501.002.001.001.00
vs Similar (21)1.001.101.201.200.821.00
vs Weaker (6)1.500.672.000.671.000.67
Clean sheet %31% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L10W10W32W00D10W00D01L00D02LH·BUD03/12H·DEČ10/12A·RUD18/02H·SUT23/02A·ARS28/02H·JED04/03A·JEZ08/03H·PET12/03H·ISK18/03A·BUD01/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.811.111.000.860.621.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.761.140.820.730.701.60
vs Weaker (6)1.001.001.671.330.330.67
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%16%026%128%217%38%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
58.1%
Under 1.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.8%
Under 2.5
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.6%
Under 3.5
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
37.4%
No
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.2%
1-0
16.0%
1-1 ✓
14.2%
2-0
10.0%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
4.8%
0-2
4.1%
Dečić goals ↓
Mornar goals →
01234
016%9.8%4.1%1.0%0.2%
116%14%4.8%1.2%0.2%
210.0%7.5%2.8%0.7%0.1%
33.9%2.9%1.1%0.3%0.0%
41.1%0.8%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dečić goals (down), columns = Mornar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.94
Sutjeska
1.94
Arsenal Tivat
1.39
Dečić
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.31
Mornar
1.26
Petrovac
1.25
Jezero
1.19
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.11
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.86
Kom
0.50
Berane
0.00
Dečić is 0.13 points better than Mornar in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.26).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
2.08
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Petrovac
1.39
Dečić
1.22
Jedinstvo
1.19
Arsenal Tivat
1.08
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.03
Kom
1.00
Jezero
0.97
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.92
Mornar
0.89
Berane
0.00
Dečić is 0.33 goals better than Mornar in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 0.89).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sutjeska
0.94
Buducnost Podgorica
1.03
Dečić
1.03
Jezero
1.06
Mornar
1.08
Arsenal Tivat
1.08
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.50
Kom
1.50
Petrovac
1.58
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.61
Berane
2.00
Dečić is 0.05 goals better than Mornar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DečićDečić

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D00D02L00D00D00D00D00DA·JEZ03/12A·MOR10/12H·ISK18/02A·BUD23/02A·PET28/02H·RUD04/03A·SUT08/03H·ARS12/03A·JED18/03H·JEZ01/04
Avg total
0.2
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.450.480.500.570.400.40
vs Stronger (2)0.501.000.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.380.480.400.600.360.36
vs Weaker (6)0.670.331.000.330.330.33
Clean sheet %62% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L00D00D01L00D00D00D00D00D00DH·BUD03/12H·DEČ10/12A·RUD18/02H·SUT23/02A·ARS28/02H·JED04/03A·JEZ08/03H·PET12/03H·ISK18/03A·BUD01/04
Avg total
0.2
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.260.330.360.290.150.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.290.380.360.270.200.50
vs Weaker (6)0.170.170.330.330.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DečićDečić

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L02L01L10W10W11D00D00D11DA·JEZ03/12A·MOR10/12H·ISK18/02A·BUD23/02A·PET28/02H·RUD04/03A·SUT08/03H·ARS12/03A·JED18/03H·JEZ01/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.660.550.860.570.470.53
vs Stronger (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (21)0.620.620.800.600.450.64
vs Weaker (6)0.830.331.000.330.670.33
Clean sheet %52% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W10W31W00D10W00D01L00D02LH·BUD03/12H·DEČ10/12A·RUD18/02H·SUT23/02A·ARS28/02H·JED04/03A·JEZ08/03H·PET12/03H·ISK18/03A·BUD01/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.560.780.640.570.461.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.480.760.450.450.501.10
vs Weaker (6)0.830.831.331.000.330.67
Clean sheet %41% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.587.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 2.570.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Dečić and Mornar have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Dečić and Mornar have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
Dečić and Mornar have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Dečić and Mornar have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
DEČ wins
0
Draws
1
MOR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dečić vs Mornar · H/A from DEČ
DateH/AGameScore
10/12/22AMornar Vs DEČ1-0
01/10/22HDEČ Vs Mornar3-1
24/07/22AMornar Vs DEČ0-1

DečićDečić

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/04/23HDEČ Vs Jezero1-1
18/03/23AJedinstvo Vs DEČ0-0
12/03/23HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat0-0
08/03/23ASutjeska Vs DEČ1-1
04/03/23HDEČ Vs Rudar (Montenegro)1-0
28/02/23APetrovac Vs DEČ2-1
23/02/23ABuducnost Podgorica Vs DEČ1-0
18/02/23HDEČ Vs Iskra (Montenegro)0-2
10/12/22AMornar Vs DEČ1-0
03/12/22AJezero Vs DEČ0-0

MornarMornar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/04/23ABuducnost Podgorica Vs MOR2-0
18/03/23HMOR Vs Iskra (Montenegro)0-0
12/03/23HMOR Vs Petrovac0-1
08/03/23AJezero Vs MOR0-0
04/03/23HMOR Vs Jedinstvo1-0
28/02/23AArsenal Tivat Vs MOR0-0
23/02/23HMOR Vs Sutjeska3-2
18/02/23ARudar (Montenegro) Vs MOR0-1
10/12/22HMOR Vs Dečić1-0
03/12/22HMOR Vs Buducnost Podgorica1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dečić
Dečić
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDDD1.24
HomeLLWDD1.21
AwayLLLDD1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%29%27%
AVG goals2.142.501.80
Over 1.5 %66%71%60%
Over 2.5 %38%43%33%
Over 3.5 %14%21%7%
Scored1.101.360.87
Conceded1.031.140.93
BTTS52%57%47%
Clean Sheet31%29%33%
Corners10.0011.009.00
Cards4.003.005.00
Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLDL1.15
HomeWWWLD1.57
AwayLWDDL0.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%43%15%
AVG goals1.931.862.00
Over 1.5 %48%36%62%
Over 2.5 %37%36%38%
Over 3.5 %19%21%15%
Scored0.811.000.62
Conceded1.110.861.38
BTTS41%36%46%
Clean Sheet33%43%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SutjeskaSutjeska3670
56%
1.9
7534+41
3.0
86%
64%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.10.9
-
2Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3670
56%
1.9
6137+24
2.7
75%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.71.0
-
3DečićDečić3650
33%
1.4
4437+7
2.2
67%
42%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.0
-
4Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3650
36%
1.4
3939+0
2.2
58%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.11.1
-
5MornarMornar3848
34%
1.3
3441-7
2.0
53%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.1
-
6JedinstvoJedinstvo3647
36%
1.3
4354-11
2.7
69%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
-
7PetrovacPetrovac3645
31%
1.2
5057-7
3.0
78%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.6
-
8JezeroJezero3643
28%
1.2
3538-3
2.0
61%
42%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.1
-
9Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)3842
26%
1.1
3953-14
2.4
63%
50%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
10Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)3631
19%
0.9
3358-25
2.5
78%
58%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.6
-
11KomKom21
0%
0.5
23-1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12BeraneBerane20
0%
0.0
04-4
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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