Degerfors IF’s recent five matches ended in a defeat, while Djurgårdens IF entered the game on a win, setting the stage for a clear favourite. The model rates Djurgårdens as the most likely victor at 66%, reflecting their strong away form - averaging 3.33 goals scored and conceding only 0.5 against weaker opponents - against Degerfors’ home struggles, where they average 0.55 goals scored and 1.36 conceded against stronger teams. Home win probability sits at 12%, a draw at 22%, and an away win at 66%. The expected total goals is 2.8, with the most probable total being 2 goals at 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 for Djurgårdens, with a 12.7% chance. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 86.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 81.4%, Over 8.5 corners at 70.5%, Over 1.5 goals at 77.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 74.5%, and Over 2.5 cards at 73.3%. The model’s selection points to a dominant away performance, consistent with Djurgårdens’ recent form and the venue advantage.
Results analysis
Degerfors IF’s recent run of LWWWL, ending in a 0-2 loss, left them on shaky form, while Djurgårdens IF carried momentum from a 3-0 win over Malmö FF. The model’s pre-match favourite, an Away win at 66%, proved correct as Djurgårdens secured a 0-1 victory. The most likely scoreline of 0-2 came close, yet the final tally was 0-1. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 19.5 fouls (86.1%) missed, Under 5.5 cards (81.4%) hit, Over 1.5 (77.5%) missed, Over 21.5 fouls (74.5%) missed, Over 2.5 cards (73.3%) missed, and Over 8.5 corners (70.5%) hit. The match delivered a modest total of two goals, aligning with the expected 2.8.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Degerfors IF win✗ Miss
11.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Djurgardens IF win✓ Hit
66.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Degerfors IF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.47
0.80
1.27
1.47
1.67
vs Stronger (17)
0.76
1.47
0.55
1.36
1.17
1.67
vs Similar (13)
1.62
1.46
1.50
1.00
1.67
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Djurgardens IF) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Djurgardens IF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
1.10
2.47
1.27
2.27
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
2.00
1.50
2.80
2.00
1.56
1.22
vs Weaker (16)
2.69
0.75
2.30
0.90
3.33
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Degerfors IF) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.6%
Under 2.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.4%
Under 3.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.9%
No
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
12.7%
0-1 ✓
11.6%
1-1
10.4%
1-2
9.6%
0-3
8.6%
0-0
7.1%
1-3
6.5%
0-4
4.4%
Degerfors IF goals ↓
Djurgardens IF goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
12%
13%
8.6%
4.4%
1
3.7%
10%
9.6%
6.5%
3.3%
2
1.8%
3.6%
3.6%
2.4%
1.2%
3
0.4%
0.9%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Degerfors IF goals (down), columns = Djurgardens IF goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sirius
2.33
Hammarby FF
2.00
BK Hacken
1.72
Djurgardens IF
1.71
AIK Stockholm
1.65
IF Elfsborg
1.56
Malmo FF
1.44
Vasteras SK FK
1.44
IF Brommapojkarna
1.33
Gais
1.28
Mjallby AIF
1.25
IFK Goteborg
1.11
Kalmar FF
1.06
Degerfors IF
0.89
Orgryte IS
0.78
Halmstad
0.44
Degerfors IF is 0.82 points worse than Djurgardens IF in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sirius
2.61
Hammarby FF
2.33
Djurgardens IF
2.18
BK Hacken
1.78
Malmo FF
1.78
Mjallby AIF
1.50
IF Brommapojkarna
1.50
AIK Stockholm
1.47
IF Elfsborg
1.39
Vasteras SK FK
1.39
IFK Goteborg
1.28
Orgryte IS
1.22
Kalmar FF
1.17
Gais
1.17
Degerfors IF
0.94
Halmstad
0.67
Degerfors IF is 1.23 goals worse than Djurgardens IF in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 2.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hammarby FF
0.83
Gais
1.00
IF Elfsborg
1.06
Djurgardens IF
1.12
Mjallby AIF
1.44
BK Hacken
1.44
Sirius
1.44
AIK Stockholm
1.47
IF Brommapojkarna
1.50
Kalmar FF
1.56
Degerfors IF
1.61
Malmo FF
1.67
Vasteras SK FK
1.78
Halmstad
1.94
IFK Goteborg
2.17
Orgryte IS
2.28
Degerfors IF is 0.49 goals worse than Djurgardens IF in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hammarby FF
61%
Malmo FF
57%
Djurgardens IF
56%
Mjallby AIF
54%
AIK Stockholm
52%
BK Hacken
52%
IFK Goteborg
51%
Gais
50%
Sirius
48%
Vasteras SK FK
47%
IF Elfsborg
47%
IF Brommapojkarna
47%
Kalmar FF
47%
Degerfors IF
46%
Orgryte IS
43%
Halmstad
41%
Degerfors IF is 10.1 percentage points worse than Djurgardens IF in terms of average possession (46% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Degerfors IF
For 3.9 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 11.5 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Djurgardens IF
For 7.5 · Against 4.8 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 10.9 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Degerfors IF
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.1
10.3
3.5
3.3
3.7
25.5
26.7
24.2
vs Stronger (28)
9.4
10.1
8.5
3.7
3.9
3.5
25.4
26.3
24.3
vs Similar (22)
11.6
10.1
12.8
3.3
2.5
3.9
25.6
27.6
24.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
59%
57%
50%
44%
56%
86%
91%
81%
% under line
42%
41%
43%
50%
56%
44%
14%
9%
19%
This opponent (Djurgardens IF) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Djurgardens IF
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.2
10.3
4.0
3.8
4.3
25.8
25.6
26.0
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
7.0
10.0
2.5
3.0
2.0
21.5
18.0
25.0
vs Similar (25)
10.1
10.2
10.1
4.8
5.4
4.3
26.8
28.2
25.7
vs Weaker (23)
11.7
12.5
10.6
3.3
2.5
4.5
24.9
23.7
26.5
% over line
58%
65%
50%
62%
52%
72%
76%
70%
82%
% under line
42%
35%
50%
38%
48%
28%
24%
30%
18%
This opponent (Degerfors IF) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
IFK Goteborg
11.4
Sirius
11.1
Orgryte IS
10.9
AIK Stockholm
10.8
IF Brommapojkarna
10.7
BK Hacken
10.6
Vasteras SK FK
10.5
Mjallby AIF
10.5
Djurgardens IF
10.5
Gais
10.2
Malmo FF
10.2
Degerfors IF
10.2
Kalmar FF
10.1
Hammarby FF
10.0
IF Elfsborg
10.0
Halmstad
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Djurgardens IF
4.7
BK Hacken
4.4
IFK Goteborg
4.4
AIK Stockholm
4.2
Degerfors IF
3.8
Gais
3.8
Mjallby AIF
3.8
Hammarby FF
3.6
IF Brommapojkarna
3.6
Malmo FF
3.6
IF Elfsborg
3.5
Vasteras SK FK
3.5
Halmstad
3.4
Kalmar FF
3.4
Sirius
3.3
Orgryte IS
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
IFK Goteborg
26.6
Djurgardens IF
26.1
Sirius
25.3
Mjallby AIF
25.2
Hammarby FF
25.0
Degerfors IF
24.9
Gais
24.8
Malmo FF
24.8
Vasteras SK FK
24.5
BK Hacken
24.2
AIK Stockholm
24.1
IF Brommapojkarna
24.1
Halmstad
23.9
IF Elfsborg
23.8
Kalmar FF
23.4
Orgryte IS
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.5%
Under 9.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.9%
Under 3.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
74.5%
Under 21.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Degerfors IF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.70
0.13
0.60
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (17)
0.24
0.71
0.09
0.64
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.69
0.25
0.50
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Djurgardens IF) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Djurgardens IF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.53
1.40
0.60
1.00
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.71
1.40
1.00
0.89
0.56
vs Weaker (16)
1.31
0.38
1.40
0.40
1.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Degerfors IF) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Degerfors IF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Degerfors IF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Degerfors IF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Djurgardens IF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Djurgardens IF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Djurgardens IF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Degerfors IF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
0.67
0.67
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (17)
0.53
0.76
0.45
0.73
0.67
0.83
vs Similar (13)
1.15
0.77
1.25
0.50
1.11
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Djurgardens IF) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Djurgardens IF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.57
1.07
0.67
1.27
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.79
1.40
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.38
0.38
0.90
0.50
2.17
0.17
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Degerfors IF) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Degerfors IF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Degerfors IF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Degerfors IF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Djurgardens IF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Djurgardens IF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Djurgardens IF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (24)
€30m
DI (22)
€27m
SIR (23)
€27m
MA (24)
€26m
AS (25)
€20m
IE (26)
€17m
IG (22)
€16m
BH (22)
€16m
GAI (29)
€13m
KF (20)
€10m
VSF (24)
€10m
OI (26)
€8m
IB (24)
€8m
HAL (19)
€8m
DI (23)
€6m
Degerfors IF's squad is €21m less valuable than Djurgardens IF's (€6m vs €27m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (10)
€18m
MF (6)
€9m
AS (7)
€8m
IG (8)
€8m
DI (6)
€8m
MA (9)
€7m
BH (4)
€6m
IE (9)
€5m
GAI (10)
€5m
KF (8)
€4m
HAL (7)
€4m
IB (10)
€3m
VSF (8)
€3m
OI (7)
€2m
DI (5)
€1m
Degerfors IF's attack is €6m less valuable than Djurgardens IF's (€1m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DI (6)
€14m
MA (6)
€11m
MF (5)
€8m
AS (9)
€7m
SIR (5)
€5m
IE (5)
€4m
IG (4)
€3m
GAI (8)
€3m
BH (6)
€3m
VSF (6)
€3m
DI (7)
€3m
KF (4)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
HAL (3)
€1m
IB (3)
€1m
Degerfors IF's midfield is €11m less valuable than Djurgardens IF's (€3m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (13)
€12m
MA (9)
€8m
IE (12)
€7m
BH (12)
€7m
DI (10)
€6m
GAI (11)
€5m
IG (10)
€5m
AS (9)
€5m
OI (12)
€4m
IB (11)
€4m
SIR (8)
€4m
VSF (10)
€4m
KF (8)
€3m
HAL (9)
€3m
DI (11)
€3m
Degerfors IF's defence is €4m less valuable than Djurgardens IF's (€3m vs €6m).
Sweden: Allsvenskan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Allsvenskan stats & trends →
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Sirius
Hammarby FF
BK Hacken
IF Elfsborg
AIK Stockholm
Malmo FF
Vasteras SK FK
IF Brommapojkarna
Gais
Mjallby AIF
IFK Goteborg
Kalmar FF
Orgryte IS
Halmstad