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Denbigh Town vs Airbus UK Result & Analysis

Date: 08/09/2023
Time: 18:30
Final 2-0
Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town
Vs
25%
20%
55%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Airbus UK
Airbus UK
Wales: FAW Championship
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denbigh Town win✓ Hit
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK win✗ Miss
55.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Denbigh TownDenbigh Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L41W12L15L10WA·FLI29/07H·CAE08/08A·BAN12/08H·HOL18/08A·CHI28/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.602.002.503.001.001.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)2.501.504.001.001.002.00
vs Weaker (3)1.002.331.005.001.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Airbus UK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Airbus UKAirbus UK

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L04L11D13L14L30W31W21W51W21WH·PON25/03A·CAE31/03A·ABE08/04H·FLI14/04H·HAV22/04H·GUI29/07A·BUC08/08H·POR12/08A·LLA19/08H·LLA28/08← Premier LeagueFAW Championship →
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.872.900.753.191.002.57
vs Stronger (27)0.852.850.732.931.002.75
vs Similar (3)1.003.331.007.001.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %3% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Denbigh Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%2%04%113%218%319%417%528%6+
The model estimates around 4.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
93.8%
Under 1.5
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
81.3%
Under 2.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.7%
Under 3.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
77.5%
No
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
7.6%
2-2
6.7%
1-3
6.6%
1-1
6.4%
2-3
5.8%
2-1
5.1%
1-4
4.3%
0-2
4.3%
Denbigh Town goals ↓
Airbus UK goals →
01234
01.8%2.7%4.3%3.7%2.4%
11.6%6.4%7.6%6.6%4.3%
22.0%5.1%6.7%5.8%3.8%
31.2%3.0%4.0%3.4%2.2%
40.5%1.4%1.8%1.5%1.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Denbigh Town goals (down), columns = Airbus UK goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Holywell
2.70
Flint Town United
2.60
Airbus UK
2.47
Briton Ferry
2.37
llanelli AFC
2.13
Ammanford AFC
1.90
Mold Alexandra
1.83
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.77
Cambrian & Clydach
1.67
Denbigh Town
1.60
Carmarthen Town
1.57
Afan Lido
1.53
Caerau (Ely)
1.53
Goytre United
1.43
Ruthin Town
1.40
Cwmbran Celtic
1.40
Caersws
1.37
Baglan Dragons
1.37
Guilsfield
1.33
Trefelin
1.27
Gresford Athletic
1.23
Buckley Town
1.20
Llantwit Major
1.17
Pontardawe Town
1.07
Taffs Well
1.07
Llandudno
1.03
Prestatyn Town
0.87
Porthmadog
0.73
Abertillery Bluebirds
0.60
Chirk AAA
0.43
Llanidloes Town
0.30
Abergavenny Town
0.27
Denbigh Town is 0.87 points worse than Airbus UK in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 2.47).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flint Town United
3.13
Briton Ferry
2.87
Airbus UK
2.80
llanelli AFC
2.67
Holywell
2.63
Denbigh Town
2.33
Cwmbran Celtic
2.30
Afan Lido
2.27
Caerau (Ely)
2.27
Mold Alexandra
2.20
Bangor City 1876 FC
2.07
Caersws
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.00
Cambrian & Clydach
2.00
Llandudno
1.97
Ruthin Town
1.93
Goytre United
1.93
Buckley Town
1.80
Pontardawe Town
1.73
Carmarthen Town
1.67
Guilsfield
1.60
Trefelin
1.57
Gresford Athletic
1.57
Baglan Dragons
1.53
Taffs Well
1.47
Llantwit Major
1.47
Abertillery Bluebirds
1.40
Prestatyn Town
1.30
Porthmadog
1.17
Chirk AAA
1.07
Llanidloes Town
0.83
Abergavenny Town
0.67
Denbigh Town is 0.47 goals worse than Airbus UK in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 2.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Holywell
0.57
Airbus UK
0.93
Flint Town United
1.00
Cambrian & Clydach
1.23
Briton Ferry
1.30
Carmarthen Town
1.30
llanelli AFC
1.33
Baglan Dragons
1.37
Ammanford AFC
1.40
Guilsfield
1.53
Taffs Well
1.63
Mold Alexandra
1.67
Caersws
1.73
Ruthin Town
1.73
Llantwit Major
1.80
Gresford Athletic
1.80
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.83
Afan Lido
1.87
Goytre United
1.97
Buckley Town
2.00
Denbigh Town
2.00
Trefelin
2.07
Cwmbran Celtic
2.13
Porthmadog
2.20
Caerau (Ely)
2.27
Pontardawe Town
2.33
Prestatyn Town
2.47
Llandudno
2.67
Chirk AAA
2.73
Abergavenny Town
2.80
Abertillery Bluebirds
3.00
Llanidloes Town
3.53
Denbigh Town is 1.07 goals worse than Airbus UK in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.93).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Denbigh TownDenbigh Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D31W02L03L00DA·FLI29/07H·CAE08/08A·BAN12/08H·HOL18/08A·CHI28/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.401.502.000.331.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.501.503.001.000.002.00
vs Weaker (3)0.331.330.003.000.500.50
Clean sheet %20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Airbus UK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Airbus UKAirbus UK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L02L00D01L11D00D10W10W21W01LH·PON25/03A·CAE31/03A·ABE08/04H·FLI14/04H·HAV22/04H·GUI29/07A·BUC08/08H·POR12/08A·LLA19/08H·LLA28/08← Premier LeagueFAW Championship →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.231.270.191.500.291.00
vs Stronger (27)0.261.300.201.470.331.08
vs Similar (3)0.001.000.002.000.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Denbigh Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Denbigh Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denbigh Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denbigh Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Denbigh TownDenbigh Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W10W12L10WA·FLI29/07H·CAE08/08A·BAN12/08H·HOL18/08A·CHI28/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.601.001.000.670.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
vs Weaker (3)0.671.001.002.000.500.50
Clean sheet %60% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Airbus UK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Airbus UKAirbus UK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L02L11D12L03L30W21W11D30W20WH·PON25/03A·CAE31/03A·ABE08/04H·FLI14/04H·HAV22/04H·GUI29/07A·BUC08/08H·POR12/08A·LLA19/08H·LLA28/08← Premier LeagueFAW Championship →
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.630.561.690.711.57
vs Stronger (27)0.591.560.531.470.671.67
vs Similar (3)1.002.331.005.001.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Denbigh Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Denbigh Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denbigh Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denbigh Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.593.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.581.3%-------✗ Miss
BTTS Yes77.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (19)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (7)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (10)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
DT wins
0
Draws
0
AU wins

Head-to-head

Denbigh Town vs Airbus UK · H/A from DT
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Denbigh TownDenbigh Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/23AChirk AAA Vs DT0-1
18/08/23HDT Vs Holywell1-5
12/08/23ABangor City 1876 FC Vs DT2-1
08/08/23HDT Vs Caersws4-1
29/07/23AFlint Town United Vs DT2-1

Airbus UKAirbus UK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/23HAU Vs Llandudno2-1
19/08/23ALlanidloes Town Vs AU1-5
12/08/23HAU Vs Porthmadog2-1
08/08/23ABuckley Town Vs AU1-3
29/07/23HAU Vs Guilsfield3-0
22/04/23HAU Vs Haverfordwest County AFC1-4
14/04/23HAU Vs Flint Town United1-3
08/04/23AAberystwyth Town Vs AU1-1
31/03/23ACaernarfon Town Vs AU4-0
25/03/23HAU Vs Pontypridd Town0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLW1.20
HomeWL1.50
AwayLLW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%50%33%
AVG goals3.605.502.33
Over 1.5 %80%100%67%
Over 2.5 %80%100%67%
Over 3.5 %40%100%0%
Scored1.602.501.00
Conceded2.003.001.33
BTTS80%100%67%
Clean Sheet20%0%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Airbus UK
Airbus UK
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW0.46
HomeLLWWW0.53
AwayLLDWW0.39
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%16%11%
AVG goals3.704.113.28
Over 1.5 %92%100%83%
Over 2.5 %81%89%72%
Over 3.5 %43%42%44%
Scored0.890.950.83
Conceded2.813.162.44
BTTS51%53%50%
Clean Sheet3%5%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1HolywellHolywell3081
87%
2.7
7917+62
3.2
90%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.60.6
-
2Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3078
83%
2.6
9430+64
4.1
93%
80%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0003.11.0
-
3Airbus UKAirbus UK3074
77%
2.5
8428+56
3.7
93%
80%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.9
-
4Briton FerryBriton Ferry3071
77%
2.4
8639+47
4.2
97%
87%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.91.3
-
5llanelli AFCllanelli AFC3064
67%
2.1
8040+40
4.0
97%
83%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.3
-
6Ammanford AFCAmmanford AFC3057
57%
1.9
6042+18
3.4
77%
70%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Mold AlexandraMold Alexandra3055
60%
1.8
6650+16
3.9
90%
83%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.7
-
8Bangor City 1876 FCBangor City 1876 FC3053
57%
1.8
6255+7
3.9
90%
87%
63%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.8
-
9Cambrian & ClydachCambrian & Clydach3050
47%
1.7
6037+23
3.2
87%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
10Denbigh TownDenbigh Town3048
50%
1.6
7060+10
4.3
93%
87%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.32.0
-
11Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town3047
40%
1.6
5039+11
3.0
77%
47%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.3
-
12Afan LidoAfan Lido3046
47%
1.5
6856+12
4.1
93%
80%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.9
-
13Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)3046
47%
1.5
6868+0
4.5
97%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.32.3
-
14Goytre UnitedGoytre United3043
40%
1.4
5859-1
3.9
87%
77%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.92.0
-
15Ruthin TownRuthin Town3042
40%
1.4
5852+6
3.7
93%
77%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.7
-
16Cwmbran CelticCwmbran Celtic3042
40%
1.4
6964+5
4.4
97%
83%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.32.1
-
17CaerswsCaersws3041
37%
1.4
6052+8
3.7
93%
83%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.7
-
18Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons3041
37%
1.4
4641+5
2.9
87%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
-
19GuilsfieldGuilsfield3040
37%
1.3
4846+2
3.1
87%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
20TrefelinTrefelin3038
33%
1.3
4762-15
3.6
90%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.1
-
21Gresford AthleticGresford Athletic3037
33%
1.2
4754-7
3.4
80%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
22Buckley TownBuckley Town3036
33%
1.2
5460-6
3.8
90%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.0
-
23Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major3035
30%
1.2
4454-10
3.3
73%
70%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
24Taffs WellTaffs Well3032
27%
1.1
4449-5
3.1
87%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
25Pontardawe TownPontardawe Town3032
27%
1.1
5270-18
4.1
90%
77%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.3
-
26LlandudnoLlandudno3031
33%
1.0
5980-21
4.6
97%
93%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.7
-
27Prestatyn TownPrestatyn Town3026
23%
0.9
3974-35
3.8
90%
80%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.5
-
28PorthmadogPorthmadog3022
20%
0.7
3566-31
3.4
87%
73%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
29Abertillery BluebirdsAbertillery Bluebirds3018
13%
0.6
4290-48
4.4
93%
73%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.43.0
-
30Chirk AAAChirk AAA3013
10%
0.4
3282-50
3.8
87%
77%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.7
-
31Llanidloes TownLlanidloes Town309
7%
0.3
25106-81
4.4
93%
73%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.83.5
-
32Abergavenny TownAbergavenny Town308
7%
0.3
2084-64
3.5
87%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.8
-
Wales: FAW Championship 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →

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