Denbigh Town’s recent run of three straight defeats has left them vulnerable at home, while Bala Town’s three-game winning streak on the road fuels confidence. The model therefore names an away win as the clear favourite, assigning a 70 % probability to Bala Town triumphing. Home win sits at 11 %, draw 19 %. The expected total goals is 3.3, with the most likely total being three goals at 22 %. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2 for Bala Town, with a 10.8 % chance. Denbigh’s home form shows they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against weaker opponents, whereas Bala Town’s away form shows 1.33 goals scored and only one conceded against stronger sides. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (98.7 %), Under 7.5 (98.1 %), Away +2 handicap (96.2 %), Under 6.5 (95.0 %), Home under 2.5 goals (93.9 %), Away over 0.5 goals (90.9 %), Draw or Away (88.6 %) and Away +1 handicap (88.6 %).
Denbigh Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 2.23 | 1.54 | 1.69 | 1.53 | 2.65 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.61 | 2.06 | 1.57 | 1.86 | 1.64 | 2.18 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.42 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.33 | 3.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 7% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
Bala Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.40 | 0.94 | 1.38 | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.12 | 1.44 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Bala Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.9% | 7.4% | 10% | 9.0% | 5.8% |
| 1 | 2.1% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% |
| 2 | 1.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Denbigh Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 1.20 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.53 | 1.59 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.64 | 1.09 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.58 | 1.50 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 2.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Bala Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.44 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.52 | 0.68 | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
Denbigh Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 1.03 | 0.77 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.94 | 1.06 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Bala Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.93 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.60 | 0.76 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 99.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 98.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 7.5 | 97.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 97.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 96.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 95.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 94.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 93.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 92.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 92.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 91.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Draw or Away | 90.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +1 handicap | 90.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 86.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 86.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 86.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 86.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 83.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 80.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 79.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 goals | 77.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 77.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 74.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 73.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away win | 73.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 1.5 goals | 72.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Denbigh Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 14/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 31/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 27/03/26 | A | 3-0 |
Bala Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |