Denbigh Town hosts Bangor City 1876 FC in the Wales: FAW Championship, with the home side looking to capitalize on their recent form. Denbigh Town comes into this match after a win, having beaten Buckley Town 4-2. In contrast, Bangor City 1876 FC is on a five-match losing streak, including a 1-2 defeat to Bala Town.
The numbers suggest a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.4 goals and a most likely total of 3. The model's selection is an Over 1.5 goals, which is favored at 86.7%. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring 10.1% of the time.
Denbigh Town has a strong home record, scoring an average of 2.12 goals and conceding 1.12 goals per match against similar opponents. Bangor City 1876 FC, meanwhile, has struggled away from home, scoring 0.5 goals and conceding 2.38 goals per match against similar opponents.
The model's favored match result is a home win, with a probability of 51%. The home side is also favored to win outright, at 51%, with a 26% chance of an away win and a 23% chance of a draw. The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals (86.7%), with no edge noted.
In a shocking turn of events, Bangor City 1876 FC stunned Denbigh Town with a 1-2 victory, extending their win streak to one match. The pre-match favourite, Denbigh Town, failed to come through, with the model correctly predicting the upset. The model had selected a Home win with a 51% probability, but it was Bangor City 1876 FC who took the win. The model's selection of a Home win was incorrect. The model's suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 86.7% probability, while the most likely total goals was 3 with a 22% probability.
Denbigh Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.77 | 2.00 | 1.92 | 1.31 | 1.65 | 2.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.95 | 1.74 | 2.12 | 1.38 | 1.82 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.45 | 2.45 | 1.60 | 1.20 | 1.33 | 3.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 7% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
Bangor City 1876 FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 2.20 | 1.81 | 2.00 | 1.14 | 2.43 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.11 | 2.11 | 1.62 | 1.75 | 0.70 | 2.40 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 2.08 | 2.33 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| Bangor City 1876 FC goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 10% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.6% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 4.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
Denbigh Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.13 | 1.00 | 0.62 | 0.76 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.05 | 0.95 | 1.12 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.55 | 1.45 | 0.80 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 2.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Bangor City 1876 FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.50 | 1.21 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.44 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.08 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Denbigh Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.89 | 0.79 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.82 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.91 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Bangor City 1876 FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.20 | 0.94 | 1.19 | 0.64 | 1.21 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.67 | 1.11 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.38 | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86.7% | 1.10 | 1.12 | 1.10 | 1.08 | - | - | +6.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 11/10/24 | A | 3-4 | |
| 23/04/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 12/08/23 | A | 2-1 |
Denbigh Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 31/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 27/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 06/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 27/02/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 20/02/26 | A | 4-0 |
Bangor City 1876 FC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 31/01/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 13/12/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/11/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 20/09/25 | A | 0-6 | |
| 12/04/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 05/04/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 29/03/25 | A | 6-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 3 | Brickfield Rangers | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Bala Town | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 6 | Newtown AFC | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 3.5 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 0.2 | - |
| 7 | Mold Alexandra | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 60% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 10 | Baglan Dragons | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 1.8 | 40% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 11 | Aberystwyth Town | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 4.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 12 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 13 | Caersws | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Ynyshir Albions | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.8 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 16 | Guilsfield | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 17 | Afan Lido | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.8 | 80% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.6 | - |
| 18 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 3.6 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | - |
| 19 | Denbigh Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 20 | Rhyl | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 21 | Buckley Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Caerau (Ely) | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 5.0 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 24 | Ruthin Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3.4 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 25 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 75% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 26 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 28 | Llanuwchllyn | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.0 | - |
| 31 | Gresford Athletic | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 32 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |