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Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog Result & Analysis

Date: 21/08/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 2-3
Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town
Vs
40%
25%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Porthmadog
Porthmadog
Wales: FAW Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Denbigh Town hosts Porthmadog in the Wales FAW Championship on August 21. The recent form of both teams is telling, with Porthmadog on a 2-game winning run and Denbigh Town coming off a defeat to Bangor City 1876 FC. This match is projected to be high-scoring, with an expected total of 3.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, but the most likely total number of goals is 3.

Denbigh Town's home form is strong, with an average of 1.67 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against weaker opponents. Porthmadog's away form is concerning, with an average of 0.75 goals scored and 4.0 conceded against stronger opponents.

The model's selection is a Home win, with a 40% chance of success. The probabilities for the other match results are 24% for a draw and 36% for an Away win. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection, with a high probability of 87.1%. The home side's winning chances are 40%, the draw is 24%, and the away side's winning chances are 36%.

Results analysis

The upset came as Denbigh Town, the pre-match favourite with a 40 % chance of victory, fell to a 2-3 loss, leaving the model’s pick wrong. The match finished 2-3 in favour of Porthmadog, who had come off a win and were on a winning streak. The model’s selection of a home win was therefore missed. The model’s other predictions all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 98 % probability, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.5 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.8 %, Under 6.5 at 94.9 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 92.1 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 90.7 %, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 88.6 %, and Under 5.5 at 88.3 %. The final score of 2-3 matched the most likely 1-2 outcome, and the total goals were below the expected 3.3.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denbigh Town win✗ Miss
39.6%
Avg Implied 50.6% · @ 1.79
Edge
-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Dafabet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.76
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied 23.8% · @ 3.80
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.93
Bet365
3.90
Betfair
3.90
Marathonbet
3.86
1xBet
3.86
Porthmadog win✓ Hit
35.4%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.54
Edge
+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.80
1xBet
3.64
Dafabet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
Pinnacle
3.57

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Denbigh TownDenbigh Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L41W32W03L11D10W06L42W12L12LH·BRI06/03A·BUC13/03H·AIR20/03A·RHY27/03H·HOL31/03H·PEN03/04A·CAE18/04A·BUC01/08H·BAN08/08A·RUT14/08
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.702.071.771.381.652.59
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.841.841.881.501.822.09
vs Weaker (11)1.452.451.601.201.333.50
Clean sheet %7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Porthmadog) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PorthmadogPorthmadog

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-661W02L14L22D00D32W12L31W10W11DA·QUE21/09H·AIR19/10H·DEN20/09H·DEN24/09H·BUC18/10H·POR22/11H·RHY13/12A·PEN01/08H·RHY08/08A·BUC15/08
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.202.100.892.171.672.00
vs Stronger (1)3.002.003.002.00--
vs Similar (25)1.242.160.852.311.672.00
vs Weaker (4)0.501.750.501.75--
Clean sheet %7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Denbigh Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.1%
@ 1.12+4.0%
Under 1.5
14.9%
@ 4.83-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Under
1xBet
5.20
Superbet
4.45
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.0%
@ 1.47+1.5%
Under 2.5
36.0%
@ 2.45-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.46
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.52
1xBet
2.49
Marathonbet
2.49
Bet365
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.9%
@ 2.17-0.4%
Under 3.5
58.1%
@ 1.59+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.17
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.14
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.2%
@ 1.45+3.0%
No
33.8%
@ 2.50-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.50
William Hil
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
No
1xBet
2.56
William Hil
2.50
Marathonbet
2.50
Superbet
2.42

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%@ 7.62+5.5%
2-1
8.5%@ 8.00+3.2%
1-2
8.0%@ 11.50+4.4%
2-2
6.8%@ 10.75+2.9%
2-0
5.3%@ 10.00+1.1%
1-0
5.3%@ 10.00+1.0%
0-1
4.9%@ 14.00+1.9%
3-1
4.8%@ 12.00+1.3%
Denbigh Town goals ↓
Porthmadog goals →
01234
04.7%4.9%4.7%2.5%1.0%
15.3%11%8.0%4.3%1.7%
25.3%8.5%6.8%3.6%1.5%
33.0%4.8%3.9%2.1%0.8%
41.3%2.0%1.6%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Denbigh Town goals (down), columns = Porthmadog goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Caerau (Ely)
1.94
Bala Town
1.79
Newtown AFC
1.60
llanelli AFC
1.59
Rhyl
1.53
Carmarthen Town
1.50
Aberystwyth Town
1.47
Guilsfield
1.43
Llanuwchllyn
1.41
Porthmadog
1.41
Caerphilly Athletic
1.41
Pontardawe Town
1.41
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.41
Swansea University
1.41
Mold Alexandra
1.37
Cardiff Draconians
1.33
Denbigh Town
1.33
Brickfield Rangers
1.23
Caersws
1.23
Newport City
1.23
Treowen Stars
1.23
Llantwit Major
1.23
Holyhead Hotspur
1.20
Penrhyncoch
1.17
Pontypridd Town
1.13
Buckley Town
1.00
Afan Lido
1.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
0.97
Gresford Athletic
0.93
Baglan Dragons
0.81
Ruthin Town
0.77
Ynyshir Albions
0.77
Denbigh Town is 0.07 points worse than Porthmadog in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.41).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Caerau (Ely)
2.16
Bala Town
2.08
llanelli AFC
1.85
Denbigh Town
1.73
Treowen Stars
1.70
Newtown AFC
1.70
Buckley Town
1.67
Cardiff Draconians
1.67
Guilsfield
1.67
Llanuwchllyn
1.63
Porthmadog
1.63
Caerphilly Athletic
1.63
Pontardawe Town
1.63
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.63
Swansea University
1.63
Gresford Athletic
1.57
Caersws
1.53
Pontypridd Town
1.53
Rhyl
1.53
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.50
Carmarthen Town
1.50
Penrhyncoch
1.50
Holyhead Hotspur
1.47
Llantwit Major
1.47
Brickfield Rangers
1.30
Mold Alexandra
1.27
Ruthin Town
1.20
Newport City
1.20
Aberystwyth Town
1.17
Afan Lido
1.07
Ynyshir Albions
0.90
Baglan Dragons
0.84
Denbigh Town is 0.10 goals better than Porthmadog in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 1.63).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Caerau (Ely)
1.10
Aberystwyth Town
1.27
Carmarthen Town
1.27
Bala Town
1.28
llanelli AFC
1.44
Mold Alexandra
1.50
Llantwit Major
1.57
Cardiff Draconians
1.60
Newport City
1.60
Guilsfield
1.60
Llanuwchllyn
1.63
Porthmadog
1.63
Caerphilly Athletic
1.63
Pontardawe Town
1.63
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.63
Swansea University
1.63
Holyhead Hotspur
1.63
Brickfield Rangers
1.63
Newtown AFC
1.63
Caersws
1.70
Pontypridd Town
1.70
Baglan Dragons
1.71
Penrhyncoch
1.77
Rhyl
1.83
Ynyshir Albions
1.87
Afan Lido
1.90
Denbigh Town
1.97
Trethomas Bluebirds
2.07
Treowen Stars
2.10
Ruthin Town
2.13
Buckley Town
2.57
Gresford Athletic
2.90
Denbigh Town is 0.34 goals worse than Porthmadog in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.63).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Denbigh Town or Draw✗ Miss
64.6%
Avg Implied 74.3% · @ 1.24
Edge
-9.7%
40%
25%
35%
covers Denbigh Town + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Denbigh Town or Porthmadog✓ Hit
75.0%
Avg Implied 76.2% · @ 1.21
Edge
-1.2%
40%
25%
35%
covers Denbigh Town + Porthmadog
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.18
Draw or Porthmadog✓ Hit
60.4%
Avg Implied 49.5% · @ 1.86
Edge
+11.0%
40%
25%
35%
covers Draw + Porthmadog
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.00
William Hil
1.91
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Superbet
1.82

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Denbigh Town over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.7%
@ 1.09-1.3%
Under
18.3%
@ 5.35+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Under
1xBet
5.80
Superbet
4.90
Denbigh Town over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
50.6%
@ 1.59-7.6%
Under
49.4%
@ 2.21+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.58
Marathonbet
1.56
Under
Pinnacle
2.28
1xBet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.22
Superbet
2.10
Denbigh Town over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.2%
@ 2.79-8.5%
Under
75.8%
@ 1.36+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.87
Marathonbet
2.80
1xBet
2.70
Under
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Superbet
1.32
Denbigh Town over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 4.80-9.8%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.13+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.80
Under
1xBet
1.13
Porthmadog over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.8%
@ 1.29+8.7%
Under
20.2%
@ 3.17-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Under
1xBet
3.25
Superbet
3.10
Porthmadog over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
47.5%
@ 2.37+8.9%
Under
52.5%
@ 1.49-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.44
Superbet
2.40
1xBet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.32
Under
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Superbet
1.48
1xBet
1.45
Porthmadog over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
21.7%
@ 5.20+4.2%
Under
78.3%
@ 1.10-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.30
Superbet
5.10
Under
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.09
Porthmadog over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Denbigh Town, so a minus line means Denbigh Town give that many goals of a start and Porthmadog receive them. At -1, Denbigh Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Denbigh Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Denbigh Town)Actual: Porthmadog
Denbigh Town -2
8.8%
@ 5.80-6.6%
Draw -2
12.1%
@ 5.45-4.3%
Porthmadog +2
79.1%
@ 1.31+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.80
Draw
Marathonbet
5.45
Away
Marathonbet
1.31
Handicap -1 (Denbigh Town)Actual: Porthmadog
Denbigh Town -1
20.9%
@ 2.90-9.5%
Draw -1
18.7%
@ 3.81-4.4%
Porthmadog +1
60.4%
@ 1.89+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.92
Betfair
2.88
Draw
Marathonbet
3.88
Betfair
3.75
Away
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.87
Handicap +1 (Denbigh Town)Actual: Draw
Denbigh Town +1
64.6%
@ 1.27-4.8%
Draw +1
17.5%
@ 5.20+0.6%
Porthmadog -1
17.9%
@ 6.45+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.27
Draw
Marathonbet
5.20
Away
Marathonbet
6.45
Handicap +2 (Denbigh Town)Actual: Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town +2
82.1%
Draw +2
10.8%
Porthmadog -2
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Denbigh TownDenbigh Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D21W20W02L10W10W03L31W00D00DH·BRI06/03A·BUC13/03H·AIR20/03A·RHY27/03H·HOL31/03H·PEN03/04A·CAE18/04A·BUC01/08H·BAN08/08A·RUT14/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.100.850.540.711.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.890.890.880.750.911.00
vs Weaker (11)0.551.450.800.200.332.50
Clean sheet %37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Porthmadog) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PorthmadogPorthmadog

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D03L10W00D11D10W11D00D10WA·QUE21/09H·AIR19/10H·DEN20/09H·DEN24/09H·BUC18/10H·POR22/11H·RHY13/12A·PEN01/08H·RHY08/08A·BUC15/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.700.560.610.750.83
vs Stronger (1)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Similar (25)0.680.800.620.770.750.83
vs Weaker (4)0.250.000.250.00--
Clean sheet %47% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Denbigh Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.1%
@ 1.22-4.3%
Under 0.5
28.9%
@ 3.74+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.80
William Hil
3.80
Superbet
3.35
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.6%
@ 2.12-5.5%
Under 1.5
62.4%
@ 1.61+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.13
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Betfair
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.9%
@ 4.53-7.4%
Under 2.5
87.1%
@ 1.15+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
William Hil
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Superbet
4.40
Under
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.13

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Denbigh Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.1%
@ 1.60-11.4%
Under
53.9%
@ 2.17+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.56
Under
Pinnacle
2.28
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.11
Denbigh Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.4%
@ 3.80-12.7%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.21+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.80
Under
1xBet
1.21
Denbigh Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 9.10-7.6%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.03+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.10
Under
1xBet
1.03
Porthmadog over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.3%
@ 2.11+8.5%
Under
47.7%
@ 1.64-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.63
Porthmadog over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.5%
@ 6.15+0.4%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.09-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.15
Under
1xBet
1.09
Porthmadog over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 11.00-5.2%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Denbigh TownDenbigh Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W12L01L01L00D03L11D12L12LH·BRI06/03A·BUC13/03H·AIR20/03A·RHY27/03H·HOL31/03H·PEN03/04A·CAE18/04A·BUC01/08H·BAN08/08A·RUT14/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.970.920.850.941.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.950.951.000.750.911.09
vs Weaker (11)0.911.000.801.001.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Porthmadog) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PorthmadogPorthmadog

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W02L11D12L00D21W02L20W10W01LA·QUE21/09H·AIR19/10H·DEN20/09H·DEN24/09H·BUC18/10H·POR22/11H·RHY13/12A·PEN01/08H·RHY08/08A·BUC15/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.400.331.560.921.17
vs Stronger (1)2.001.002.001.00--
vs Similar (25)0.561.360.231.540.921.17
vs Weaker (4)0.251.750.251.75--
Clean sheet %20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Denbigh Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Denbigh Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denbigh Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denbigh Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Porthmadog over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Porthmadog over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Porthmadog over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.598.0%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals97.5%1.03
1xBet
1.03
----+7.6%✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals96.8%1.01
1xBet
1.01
----+5.2%✓ Hit
Under 6.594.9%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals92.1%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals90.7%1.13
1xBet
1.13
----+9.8%✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals88.6%1.21
1xBet
1.21
----+12.7%✓ Hit
Under 5.588.3%1.06
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.05
---+2.7%✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals87.1%1.15
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.13
-+7.4%✓ Hit
Over 1.585.1%1.12
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
---+4.0%✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals84.5%1.09
1xBet
1.09
-----0.4%✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap82.1%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals81.7%1.09
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
----1.3%✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals79.8%1.29
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.28
---+8.7%✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap79.1%1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
----+10.9%✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals78.3%1.10
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.09
----4.2%✗ Miss
Under 4.576.3%1.20
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.19
--+1.3%✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals75.8%1.36
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Superbet
1.32
--+8.5%✓ Hit
Home or Away75.0%1.21
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.18
-1.2%✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals71.1%1.22
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
--4.3%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (12)
€1m
NC (4)
€0m
AT (2)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (4)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
NC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (6)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
DT wins
1
Draws
1
POR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog · H/A from DT
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/25APorthmadog Vs DT2-2
20/09/25APorthmadog Vs DT1-4
02/02/24HDT Vs Porthmadog3-1
30/09/23APorthmadog Vs DT2-1

Denbigh TownDenbigh Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/08/26ARuthin Town Vs DT2-1
08/08/26HDT Vs Bangor City 1876 FC1-2
01/08/26ABuckley Town Vs DT2-4
18/04/26ACaersws Vs DT6-0
03/04/26HDT Vs Penrhyncoch1-0
31/03/26HDT Vs Holyhead Hotspur1-1
27/03/26ARhyl Vs DT3-0
20/03/26HDT Vs Airbus UK3-2
13/03/26ABuckley Town Vs DT1-4
06/03/26HDT Vs Brickfield Rangers0-1

PorthmadogPorthmadog

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/08/26ABuckley Town Vs POR1-1
08/08/26HPOR Vs Rhyl1-0
01/08/26APenrhyncoch Vs POR1-3
13/12/25HPOR Vs Rhyl1-2
22/11/25HPOR Vs Port Talbot Town3-2
18/10/25HPOR Vs Buckley Town0-0
24/09/25HPOR Vs Denbigh Town2-2
20/09/25HPOR Vs Denbigh Town1-4
19/10/24HPOR Vs Airbus UK0-2
21/09/24AQueens Park Vs POR1-6

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLL1.40
HomeLWDWL1.72
AwayWLLWL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%52%28%
AVG goals3.683.403.96
Over 1.5 %88%84%92%
Over 2.5 %76%72%80%
Over 3.5 %52%44%60%
Scored1.901.961.84
Conceded1.781.442.12
BTTS72%72%72%
Clean Sheet12%16%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Porthmadog
Porthmadog
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWD0.96
HomeDDWLW0.93
AwayLDWWD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%26%26%
AVG goals3.303.073.57
Over 1.5 %86%81%91%
Over 2.5 %70%67%74%
Over 3.5 %46%41%52%
Scored1.321.151.52
Conceded1.981.932.04
BTTS68%56%83%
Clean Sheet6%11%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Swansea UniversitySwansea University513
80%
2.6
185+13
4.6
100%
100%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.61.0
-
2Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town513
80%
2.6
1610+6
5.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.22.0
-
3Brickfield RangersBrickfield Rangers512
80%
2.4
154+11
3.8
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.00.8
-
4Bangor City 1876 FCBangor City 1876 FC512
80%
2.4
136+7
3.8
100%
100%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.2
-
5Bala TownBala Town412
100%
3.0
103+7
3.2
100%
100%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.50.8
-
6Newtown AFCNewtown AFC410
75%
2.5
131+12
3.5
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.20.2
-
7Mold AlexandraMold Alexandra510
60%
2.0
105+5
3.0
60%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
8Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town510
60%
2.0
1311+2
4.8
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.62.2
-
9PorthmadogPorthmadog510
60%
2.0
97+2
3.2
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
10Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons510
60%
2.0
54+1
1.8
40%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.8
-
11Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town49
75%
2.2
125+7
4.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.01.2
-
12Treowen StarsTreowen Stars49
75%
2.2
116+5
4.2
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.5
-
13CaerswsCaersws47
50%
1.8
87+1
3.8
75%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.8
-
14Ynyshir AlbionsYnyshir Albions47
50%
1.8
43+1
1.8
50%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.8
-
15Newport CityNewport City56
40%
1.2
95+4
2.8
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
16GuilsfieldGuilsfield56
20%
1.2
89-1
3.4
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
17Afan LidoAfan Lido56
40%
1.2
1113-2
4.8
80%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.6
-
18Trethomas BluebirdsTrethomas Bluebirds55
20%
1.0
99+0
3.6
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
19Denbigh TownDenbigh Town54
20%
0.8
1011-1
4.2
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.2
-
20RhylRhyl44
25%
1.0
67-1
3.2
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
21Buckley TownBuckley Town54
20%
0.8
79-2
3.2
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
22Cardiff DraconiansCardiff Draconians44
25%
1.0
57-2
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
23Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)54
20%
0.8
1015-5
5.0
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.03.0
-
24Ruthin TownRuthin Town54
20%
0.8
611-5
3.4
100%
100%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
25Caerphilly AthleticCaerphilly Athletic44
25%
1.0
27-5
2.2
75%
75%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.8
-
26Holyhead HotspurHolyhead Hotspur43
25%
0.8
57-2
3.0
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
27Pontardawe TownPontardawe Town53
20%
0.6
59-4
2.8
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
28LlanuwchllynLlanuwchllyn43
25%
0.8
315-12
4.5
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.83.8
-
29llanelli AFCllanelli AFC52
0%
0.4
614-8
4.0
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.8
-
30PenrhyncochPenrhyncoch41
0%
0.2
312-9
3.8
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.83.0
-
31Gresford AthleticGresford Athletic40
0%
0.0
012-12
3.0
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.0
-
32Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major40
0%
0.0
114-13
3.8
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.23.5
-
Wales: FAW Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →

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