Denbigh Town vs Rhyl Result & Analysis

Denbigh Town’s recent slump of three straight losses is tempered by a solid home form, scoring 1.75 goals and conceding 1.5 against weaker opposition. Rhyl, on the road, has struggled, netting only 0.86 goals while conceding 1.64 to stronger teams. The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 3.2 goals and a most likely total of 3, a 22 % chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.6 % probability. The favoured outcome is a home win, with a 59 % chance, followed by a 23 % draw and an 18 % away win. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8 %), Under 7.5 (98.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.2 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.6 %), Under 6.5 (95.8 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.6 %) and Home +2 handicap (92.9 %). Each selection carries its own probability, reflecting the model’s confidence in these outcomes.

The upset came early as Rhyl overturned Denbigh Town’s home advantage, winning 3-1 in a match that saw the pre-match favourite, Home win, fail to materialise. The model had given the home side a 59% chance of triumph, but the result was an Away win. The final score of 1-3 matched the model’s predicted most likely total of three goals, though the 3-1 outcome was not the most probable scoreline. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 98.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.5%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.6%, Under 6.5 hit at 95.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 93.2%, while Home +2 handicap missed at 92.9%. The match confirmed that the model’s favourite was wrong, but its other selections largely proved accurate.