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Dergview vs Ards Result & Analysis

Date: 04/11/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 0-3
Dergview
Dergview
Vs
47%
24%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Dergview win✗ Miss
47.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ards win✓ Hit
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

DergviewDergview

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-532W01L01L23L24L50W21W02L22D21WA·H&W19/08H·ANN26/08H·DUN02/09A·NEW09/09A·ARD16/09H·KNO23/09H·BAN30/09A·INS07/10A·BAL13/10H·NEW21/10
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.731.931.141.382.25
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (24)1.831.672.271.181.462.08
vs Weaker (4)1.002.251.001.001.003.50
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D32W22D42W10W12L11D23L23L36LH·H&W25/08A·KNO02/09H·BAL09/09H·DER16/09A·DUN23/09H·POR30/09A·BAL07/10H·INS13/10H·ANN21/10A·BAL28/10
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.732.031.772.001.712.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)1.772.231.752.251.792.21
vs Weaker (8)1.621.501.801.601.331.33
Clean sheet %13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dergview) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.4%
Under 1.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.0%
Under 2.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.4%
Under 3.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.4%
No
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
6.9%
3-1
5.9%
2-0
5.9%
1-0
5.0%
3-2
4.5%
Dergview goals ↓
Ards goals →
01234
03.9%3.7%3.5%1.8%0.7%
15.0%10.0%6.9%3.5%1.4%
25.9%9.0%6.9%3.5%1.3%
33.9%5.9%4.5%2.3%0.9%
41.9%2.9%2.2%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dergview goals (down), columns = Ards goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Portadown
1.87
Institute
1.82
Annagh United
1.79
Bangor
1.79
Dundela
1.76
Ballyclare Comrades
1.61
H&W Welders
1.47
Newington Youth
1.37
Ballinamallard United
1.34
Armagh City
1.00
Ards
0.97
Dergview
0.72
Knockbreda
0.47
Dergview is 0.25 points worse than Ards in terms of average points per game (0.72 vs 0.97).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bangor
2.03
Dundela
1.95
Portadown
1.95
Ballyclare Comrades
1.92
H&W Welders
1.84
Newington Youth
1.71
Annagh United
1.61
Ards
1.58
Institute
1.58
Ballinamallard United
1.34
Dergview
1.07
Armagh City
1.00
Knockbreda
0.89
Dergview is 0.50 goals worse than Ards in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.58).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Armagh City
1.00
Institute
1.13
Bangor
1.16
Annagh United
1.32
Ballinamallard United
1.34
Portadown
1.39
Dundela
1.58
Ballyclare Comrades
1.58
H&W Welders
1.66
Newington Youth
1.79
Ards
1.82
Dergview
2.02
Knockbreda
2.63
Dergview is 0.21 goals worse than Ards in terms of goals conceded per game (2.02 vs 1.82).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DergviewDergview

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D12L01L01L21W13L20W11D01L10WA·BAL12/08A·H&W19/08H·ANN26/08H·DUN02/09A·NEW09/09A·ARD16/09H·KNO23/09H·BAN30/09A·INS07/10A·BAL13/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.800.920.690.710.88
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (24)0.920.791.100.700.790.86
vs Weaker (4)0.501.000.500.500.501.50
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L20W10W31W10W01L00D12L02L14LH·H&W25/08A·KNO02/09H·BAL09/09H·DER16/09A·DUN23/09H·POR30/09A·BAL07/10H·INS13/10H·ANN21/10A·BAL28/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.900.770.920.760.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.821.090.881.120.791.07
vs Weaker (8)0.620.380.600.600.670.00
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dergview) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dergview over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dergview over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dergview over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DergviewDergview

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L20W00D00D02L11D30W10W01L12LA·BAL12/08A·H&W19/08H·ANN26/08H·DUN02/09A·NEW09/09A·ARD16/09H·KNO23/09H·BAN30/09A·INS07/10A·BAL13/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.901.000.460.821.24
vs Stronger (2)0.501.000.000.001.002.00
vs Similar (24)1.000.831.200.500.861.07
vs Weaker (4)0.501.250.500.500.502.00
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W12L12L11D00D11D11D11D21W22DH·H&W25/08A·KNO02/09H·BAL09/09H·DER16/09A·DUN23/09H·POR30/09A·BAL07/10H·INS13/10H·ANN21/10A·BAL28/10
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.131.001.080.941.18
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.951.140.881.121.001.14
vs Weaker (8)1.001.121.201.000.671.33
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dergview) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dergview over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dergview over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dergview over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
POR (6)
€1m
BAN (4)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (5)
€1m
POR (3)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (11)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
DER wins
0
Draws
3
ARD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dergview vs Ards · H/A from DER
DateH/AGameScore
16/09/23AArds Vs DER4-2
28/02/23HDER Vs Ards2-1
25/02/23HDER Vs Ards2-3
01/10/22AArds Vs DER5-2

DergviewDergview

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/10/23HDER Vs Newington Youth2-1
13/10/23ABallyclare Comrades Vs DER2-2
07/10/23AInstitute Vs DER2-0
30/09/23HDER Vs Bangor2-1
23/09/23HDER Vs Knockbreda5-0
16/09/23AArds Vs DER4-2
09/09/23ANewington Youth Vs DER3-2
02/09/23HDER Vs Dundela0-1
26/08/23HDER Vs Annagh United0-1
19/08/23AH&W Welders Vs DER2-3

ArdsArds

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/10/23ABallyclare Comrades Vs ARD6-3
21/10/23HARD Vs Annagh United2-3
13/10/23HARD Vs Institute2-3
07/10/23ABallinamallard United Vs ARD1-1
30/09/23HARD Vs Portadown1-2
23/09/23ADundela Vs ARD0-1
16/09/23HARD Vs Dergview4-2
09/09/23HARD Vs Ballyclare Comrades2-2
02/09/23AKnockbreda Vs ARD2-3
25/08/23HARD Vs H&W Welders1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dergview
Dergview
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDW1.08
HomeLLWWW1.42
AwayWLLLD0.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%46%15%
AVG goals3.302.963.62
Over 1.5 %82%79%85%
Over 2.5 %68%67%69%
Over 3.5 %40%25%54%
Scored1.461.541.38
Conceded1.841.422.23
BTTS56%46%65%
Clean Sheet22%29%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL1.32
HomeDWLLL1.46
AwayDWWDL1.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%42%35%
AVG goals3.843.584.08
Over 1.5 %86%88%85%
Over 2.5 %70%67%73%
Over 3.5 %50%42%58%
Scored1.821.791.85
Conceded2.021.792.23
BTTS74%71%77%
Clean Sheet12%17%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PortadownPortadown3871
58%
1.9
7453+21
3.3
87%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.91.4
-
2InstituteInstitute3869
53%
1.8
6043+17
2.7
71%
50%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
3BangorBangor3868
53%
1.8
7744+33
3.2
87%
76%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.01.2
-
4Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3868
53%
1.8
6150+11
2.9
74%
55%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
5DundelaDundela3867
55%
1.8
7460+14
3.5
82%
71%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
6Ballyclare ComradesBallyclare Comrades3861
47%
1.6
7360+13
3.5
89%
76%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
7H&W WeldersH&W Welders3856
45%
1.5
7063+7
3.5
89%
76%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
8Newington YouthNewington Youth3852
42%
1.4
6568-3
3.5
97%
76%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.8
-
9Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3851
39%
1.3
5151+0
2.7
71%
58%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
10ArdsArds3837
24%
1.0
6069-9
3.4
84%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
11DergviewDergview4029
15%
0.7
4381-38
3.1
85%
57%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12KnockbredaKnockbreda3818
13%
0.5
34100-66
3.5
95%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.6
-
13Armagh CityArmagh City22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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