The encounter between Digenis Morphou and APEA is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but leaving room for a draw or an away triumph. The predicted probabilities are 39 % for a Digenis win, 29 % for a draw and 32 % for an APEA victory, making the home side the slight favourite. On average the match should see 2.6 goals, with the most likely total of two goals occurring 27 % of the time. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.9 % chance.
Digenis, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded. APEA, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.9 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s suggested selections are: Under 7.5 goals 99.5 %, Under 6.5 goals 98.4 %, Away under 3.5 goals96.5 %, Under 5.5 goals 95.4 %, Home under 3.5 goals95.2 %, Under 4.5 goals 88.4 %, Away under 2.5 goals87.8 % and Home +2 handicap85.9 %. Each selection is presented with its exact probability, reflecting the model’s confidence in these outcomes.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Digenis Morphou win
38.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
APEA win
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Digenis Morphou
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.30
1.56
1.44
1.79
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.56
1.39
1.62
1.62
1.50
1.20
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
1.17
1.50
1.25
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (APEA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
APEA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.31
1.31
1.53
1.40
1.07
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.35
1.09
1.58
1.25
1.09
0.91
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
2.17
1.33
2.00
1.00
2.33
Clean sheet %
28% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Digenis Morphou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.6%
Under 1.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.0%
Under 2.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.4%
Under 3.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
9.2%
0-0
9.1%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.2%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
5.7%
Digenis Morphou goals ↓
APEA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
8.2%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
1
9.2%
14%
7.6%
3.1%
0.9%
2
7.0%
8.5%
5.1%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.1%
3.8%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.1%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Digenis Morphou goals (down), columns = APEA goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.66
Akritas
2.54
Enosis
2.44
PAEEK
1.59
Halkanoras
1.55
Doxa
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.41
Ermis
1.37
Polemidion
1.37
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.37
APEA
1.34
Spartakos Kitiou
1.34
Digenis Morphou
1.34
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.28
ASIL Lysi
1.07
MEAP Nisou
1.00
Digenis Morphou and APEA are level in average points per game (both 1.34).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.62
Akritas
2.50
Enosis
2.40
Halkanoras
1.62
Digenis Morphou
1.55
PAEEK
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.45
Spartakos Kitiou
1.45
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
APEA
1.31
Doxa
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.07
Iraklis Yerolakkou
0.93
Digenis Morphou is 0.24 goals better than APEA in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ethnikos Achna
0.70
Akritas
0.73
Enosis
0.76
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.03
PAEEK
1.07
Doxa
1.21
Spartakos Kitiou
1.24
Halkanoras
1.28
APEA
1.31
Digenis Morphou
1.31
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
Ayia Napa
1.48
ASIL Lysi
1.72
MEAP Nisou
1.72
Digenis Morphou and APEA are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Digenis Morphou or Draw
67.7%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
32%
covers Digenis Morphou + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou or APEA
70.9%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
32%
covers Digenis Morphou + APEA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or APEA
61.4%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
32%
covers Draw + APEA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Digenis Morphou over/under 0.5
Over
73.9%
Under
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 1.5
Over
38.9%
Under
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 2.5
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 0.5
Over
70.1%
Under
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 1.5
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 2.5
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Digenis Morphou, so a minus line means Digenis Morphou give that many goals of a start and APEA receive them. At -1, Digenis Morphou must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Digenis Morphou win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Digenis Morphou)
Digenis Morphou -2
6.6%
Draw -2
11.7%
APEA +2
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Digenis Morphou)
Digenis Morphou -1
18.3%
Draw -1
20.3%
APEA +1
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Digenis Morphou)
Digenis Morphou +1
67.7%
Draw +1
18.2%
APEA -1
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Digenis Morphou)
Digenis Morphou +2
85.9%
Draw +2
9.5%
APEA -2
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Digenis Morphou
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.44
0.75
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.67
0.12
0.88
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.58
0.75
0.62
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (APEA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
APEA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.55
0.69
0.47
0.67
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.65
0.42
0.67
0.73
0.64
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
41% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Digenis Morphou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Digenis Morphou over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Digenis Morphou
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.67
1.12
0.69
1.14
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.28
0.72
1.50
0.75
1.10
0.70
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.58
0.75
0.62
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (APEA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
APEA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.76
0.62
1.07
0.73
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.43
1.17
0.58
0.36
0.27
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
59% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Digenis Morphou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Digenis Morphou over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Cyprus: 2. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →