Defensive solidity will shape this low-scoring encounter, as both sides have conceded more than they score against similar opposition. Digenis Morphou averages 1.0 goal per home game but yields 2.33, while MEAP Nisou nets 0.86 away and concedes 1.64. The model favours a home win, with a 38% chance, a 32% chance of a draw, and a 30% chance of an away victory. The expected total of 2.1 goals points to a tight match, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.8% probability. The single most probable total is two goals, with a 28% chance. The model’s selection Under 3.5 carries an 83.6% probability. Digenis Morphou entered the game after a draw against AE Zakakiou, while MEAP Nisou also came off a 3-3 draw with Omonia 29is Maiou.
Results analysis
After a draw against AE Zakakiou, Digenis Morphou’s recent form shows a mixed run, yet the model still favoured a home win with a 38% probability, a prediction that proved correct as the final score was 3-1. The favourite’s confidence was reinforced by the model’s 83.6% chance of an Under 3.5 total, a pick that missed. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 14.8% and the 28% chance of a 2-goal total were not realised, but the model’s overall call held. With the home side securing a win, the selection’s success stands out amid a tough day for the model’s other picks.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Digenis Morphou win✓ Hit
37.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
MEAP Nisou win✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Digenis Morphou
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.89
1.11
1.22
0.89
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.25
1.25
1.00
2.33
1.40
0.60
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.60
1.17
0.67
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (MEAP Nisou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MEAP Nisou
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.60
0.93
1.67
0.87
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.93
1.57
1.00
1.50
0.86
1.64
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
4.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Digenis Morphou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.7%
Under 1.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.4%
Under 2.5
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
16.4%
Under 3.5
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.7%
No
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.4%
1-0
12.4%
0-1
10.5%
2-0
7.8%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.8%
Digenis Morphou goals ↓
MEAP Nisou goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
10%
5.8%
1.9%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.6%
2.1%
0.5%
2
7.8%
7.6%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
3
2.9%
2.9%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.8%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Digenis Morphou goals (down), columns = MEAP Nisou goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Omonia Aradippou
2.10
Omonia 29is Maiou
2.00
Olympiakos
1.86
Enosis
1.86
Digenis Morphou
1.76
PAEEK
1.59
Krasava Ypsonas
1.52
ASIL Lysi
1.48
Ahironas / Onisilos
1.24
Akritas
1.21
MEAP Nisou
1.14
Peyia
1.10
Ayia Napa
1.03
ENAD
0.90
Ermis
0.69
Xylotympou
0.69
Digenis Morphou is 0.62 points better than MEAP Nisou in terms of average points per game (1.76 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PAEEK
1.62
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.59
Omonia Aradippou
1.59
Enosis
1.52
Olympiakos
1.48
Digenis Morphou
1.41
Krasava Ypsonas
1.34
ASIL Lysi
1.24
Ayia Napa
1.21
Akritas
1.21
Peyia
1.14
Ahironas / Onisilos
1.10
ENAD
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.00
Ermis
0.97
Xylotympou
0.97
Digenis Morphou is 0.41 goals better than MEAP Nisou in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Omonia Aradippou
0.66
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.72
Olympiakos
0.72
Digenis Morphou
1.00
Ahironas / Onisilos
1.10
Enosis
1.14
Akritas
1.14
PAEEK
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.24
Krasava Ypsonas
1.24
MEAP Nisou
1.31
ENAD
1.41
Peyia
1.52
Ayia Napa
1.79
Xylotympou
1.90
Ermis
2.41
Digenis Morphou is 0.31 goals better than MEAP Nisou in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Digenis Morphou
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.28
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.22
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.38
1.00
0.33
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (10)
0.30
0.20
0.50
0.33
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
72% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (MEAP Nisou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MEAP Nisou
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.77
0.33
1.00
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.32
0.75
0.36
0.93
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Digenis Morphou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Digenis Morphou over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MEAP Nisou over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MEAP Nisou over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MEAP Nisou over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Digenis Morphou
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.61
0.44
0.89
0.56
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.88
0.00
2.00
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (10)
0.50
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
61% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (MEAP Nisou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MEAP Nisou
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.60
0.67
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.82
0.64
0.57
0.57
1.07
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Digenis Morphou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Digenis Morphou over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MEAP Nisou over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MEAP Nisou over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MEAP Nisou over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Cyprus: 2. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →