The model favours an away win, with Bate Borisov expected to triumph over Dinamo Brest. The predicted outcome is a 0-1 scoreline, carrying a 14.5% probability, while the overall match is expected to see 2.3 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals at 28%. Dinamo Brest, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages one goal scored and 1.2 conceded, whereas Bate Borisov, on the road, averages two goals scored and none conceded against comparable teams. Home win probability sits at 17%, a draw at 28%, and an away win at 55%. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 86.2%, Under 3.5 at 80.3%, Under 11.5 corners at 77.2%, and Over 3.5 cards at 71.4%. Dinamo Brest’s recent form shows a dip after a defeat, while Bate Borisov comes off a win, setting the stage for a tight contest that the model predicts will favour the visitors.
Results analysis
Dinamo Brest’s recent run of defeats left them vulnerable, while Bate Borisov entered the match on a win, setting the stage for an away triumph. The model’s favourite, an away win, proved accurate as Bate secured a 0-3 victory. The pre-match probability for the favourite was 55%. The model’s selections also hit the mark: Over 2.5 cards came through at 86.2%, Under 3.5 cards at 80.3%, Under 11.5 corners at 77.2%, and Over 3.5 cards at 71.4%. Each pick’s outcome matched the final result, confirming the model’s overall accuracy. The match delivered on its predictions, with Bate Borisov’s dominant performance reflecting the forecasted form and probabilities.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Brest win✗ Miss
17.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov win✓ Hit
54.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Brest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.78
1.67
1.00
1.20
0.50
2.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
1.67
1.00
1.20
0.50
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
11% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bate Borisov
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.33
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (7)
2.00
0.29
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.7%
Under 1.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.9%
Under 2.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.6%
No
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.5%
1-1
12.9%
0-2
12.0%
0-0
11.4%
1-2
9.0%
1-0
6.5%
0-3 ✓
6.1%
1-3
4.6%
Dinamo Brest goals ↓
Bate Borisov goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
14%
12%
6.1%
2.3%
1
6.5%
13%
9.0%
4.6%
1.8%
2
2.9%
4.4%
3.4%
1.7%
0.7%
3
0.7%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Brest goals (down), columns = Bate Borisov goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.17
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
2.00
Dinamo Minsk
1.97
Bate Borisov
1.97
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.80
ML Vitebsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.47
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
FC Gomel
1.37
Neman
1.37
Slavia Mozyr
1.23
FC Slutsk
1.07
Belshina
1.00
Dinamo Brest
0.90
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.81
FC Vitebsk
0.73
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.40
Dinamo Brest is 1.07 points worse than Bate Borisov in terms of average points per game (0.90 vs 1.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
2.50
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.83
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.70
Bate Borisov
1.70
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.67
Dinamo Minsk
1.67
FC Minsk
1.57
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
Neman
1.30
Belshina
1.23
Torpedo Zhodino
1.17
FC Gomel
1.10
Dinamo Brest
0.97
FC Vitebsk
0.93
FC Slutsk
0.87
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.70
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.69
Dinamo Brest is 0.73 goals worse than Bate Borisov in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.70).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.57
Bate Borisov
0.70
Dinamo Minsk
0.83
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.90
Torpedo Zhodino
1.07
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.10
Neman
1.10
FC Gomel
1.23
FC Slutsk
1.37
FC Minsk
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.43
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.47
Slavia Mozyr
1.53
FC Vitebsk
1.63
Belshina
1.67
ML Vitebsk
2.00
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.43
Dinamo Brest is 0.73 goals worse than Bate Borisov in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 0.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Brest
For 5.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Bate Borisov
For 3.3 · Against 4.7 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Brest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (9)
11.0
9.0
13.0
1.1
1.2
1.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
11.0
9.0
13.0
1.1
1.2
1.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
0%
100%
22%
20%
25%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
100%
0%
78%
80%
75%
-
-
-
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bate Borisov
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (8)
8.0
13.0
5.5
1.1
0.0
1.5
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
5.0
-
5.0
4.0
-
4.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
9.5
13.0
6.0
0.7
0.0
1.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
33%
100%
0%
25%
0%
33%
-
-
-
% under line
67%
0%
100%
75%
100%
67%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Mozyr
12.7
FC Minsk
12.0
Neman
12.0
Dinamo Brest
11.0
FC Vitebsk
10.7
Belshina
10.3
Shakhter Soligorsk
10.3
FC Isloch Minsk R.
10.0
FC Gomel
9.8
FC Slutsk
9.0
Bate Borisov
8.0
Dinamo Minsk
8.0
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
7.0
Torpedo Zhodino
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
8.0
FC Vitebsk
6.0
Dinamo Minsk
5.7
Torpedo Zhodino
5.0
Dinamo Brest
5.0
Neman
5.0
Bate Borisov
4.5
FC Gomel
4.3
Belshina
4.3
Slavia Mozyr
4.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
3.5
FC Slutsk
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
45.3%
Under 9.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.4%
Under 3.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Brest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.11
0.67
0.00
0.40
0.25
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.11
0.67
0.00
0.40
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
56% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bate Borisov
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.12
1.00
0.50
0.83
0.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.14
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
88% (+56pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Brest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.25
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
22% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bate Borisov
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.12
0.38
1.00
0.50
1.17
0.33
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.14
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
75% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
Dinamo Brest's squad is €2m more valuable than Bate Borisov's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
Dinamo Brest and Bate Borisov have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Dinamo Brest and Bate Borisov have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
Dinamo Brest's defence is €2m more valuable than Bate Borisov's (€3m vs €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →