Dinamo Brest and Bate Borisov face a finely balanced contest, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 41% for a Dinamo victory, 28% for a draw, and 31% for Bate to triumph. The expected total of goals is 2.7, with the most probable total being two goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 13.3% chance. Dinamo, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 2.54 goals scored and 1.08 conceded, while Bate, on the road, averages 0.91 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 91.9%, Under 4.5 cards at 82.0%, Over 1.5 at 76.6% (hit), Over 8.5 corners at 75.0%, and Under 3.5 at 71.0% (hit). Dinamo’s recent form shows a win after a defeat, whereas Bate comes off a victory. This match remains a tight affair with no clear favourite beyond the model’s pick.
Results analysis
Dinamo Brest’s 2-0 victory over Bate Borisov extended their recent run, coming off a defeat and turning the tide at home. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win with a 41% probability, and it proved correct. The predicted most likely score was 2-1, but the final score settled at 2-0, still a home win. The model’s suggested picks performed mixed: Under 5.5 cards (91.9%) missed, Under 4.5 cards (82.0%) missed, Over 1.5 (76.6%) hit, and Under 3.5 (71.0%) hit. Overall, the model captured the outcome but missed the card totals.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Brest win✓ Hit
41.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov win✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Brest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.40
2.33
1.27
1.93
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
2.23
1.35
2.54
1.08
1.92
1.62
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bate Borisov
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.20
1.53
1.33
1.20
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.13
1.43
1.33
1.42
0.91
1.45
vs Weaker (6)
2.50
0.17
3.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.0%
Under 2.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.0%
Under 3.5
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
2-1
8.9%
1-0
8.6%
0-0
7.8%
1-2
7.5%
2-0 ✓
7.2%
0-1
7.0%
2-2
5.5%
Dinamo Brest goals ↓
Bate Borisov goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
7.0%
5.1%
2.1%
0.7%
1
8.6%
13%
7.5%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.2%
8.9%
5.5%
2.3%
0.7%
3
3.5%
4.4%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Brest goals (down), columns = Bate Borisov goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.27
Neman
2.17
Torpedo Zhodino
2.07
Dinamo Brest
1.63
FC Vitebsk
1.57
FC Gomel
1.47
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.33
FC Slutsk
1.30
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.27
Slavia Mozyr
1.17
Smorgon
1.07
Naftan
1.00
FC Minsk
0.93
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.73
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.60
Niva
0.00
Dinamo Brest is 0.30 points better than Bate Borisov in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Brest
2.07
Dinamo Minsk
1.67
Neman
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.50
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Gomel
1.23
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.20
Smorgon
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.10
Naftan
1.00
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.97
Slavia Mozyr
0.93
FC Minsk
0.93
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.90
FC Slutsk
0.87
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.63
Niva
0.50
Dinamo Brest is 0.80 goals better than Bate Borisov in terms of goals scored per game (2.07 vs 1.27).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Minsk
0.43
Neman
0.63
Torpedo Zhodino
0.70
FC Vitebsk
0.83
FC Gomel
0.93
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.00
Slavia Mozyr
1.10
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.20
Dinamo Brest
1.23
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Slutsk
1.37
Naftan
1.41
FC Minsk
1.47
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.50
Smorgon
1.70
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.93
Niva
2.50
Dinamo Brest is 0.03 goals better than Bate Borisov in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 1.27).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Brest
For 6.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Bate Borisov
For 6.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Brest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.9
12.6
11.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
11.0
-
11.0
1.3
0.0
2.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
11.6
11.9
11.5
2.6
2.7
2.5
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
18.0
18.0
-
0.3
0.5
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
80%
75%
83%
30%
38%
23%
-
-
-
% under line
20%
25%
17%
70%
62%
77%
-
-
-
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bate Borisov
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.7
10.6
2.8
3.1
2.5
19.0
18.7
19.3
vs Stronger (4)
11.5
11.0
12.0
2.8
4.0
1.5
26.0
23.0
29.0
vs Similar (38)
10.3
10.8
9.6
3.2
3.0
3.3
15.5
16.5
14.5
vs Weaker (8)
12.5
9.0
16.0
1.4
3.0
0.4
-
-
-
% over line
52%
50%
56%
40%
42%
38%
33%
33%
33%
% under line
48%
50%
44%
60%
58%
62%
67%
67%
67%
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Naftan
13.1
Dinamo Brest
11.3
Bate Borisov
10.7
FC Gomel
10.4
FC Slutsk
10.2
Smorgon
10.1
Torpedo Zhodino
10.1
Slavia Mozyr
9.9
Dinamo Minsk
9.9
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.5
FC Minsk
9.4
FC Isloch Minsk R.
9.4
Neman
9.3
FC Vitebsk
8.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Slavia Mozyr
4.0
Bate Borisov
4.0
Smorgon
3.9
Naftan
3.8
Shakhter Soligorsk
3.7
Dinamo Brest
3.6
FC Minsk
3.6
FC Vitebsk
3.5
FC Gomel
3.5
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.5
FC Isloch Minsk R.
3.3
Torpedo Zhodino
3.3
Dinamo Minsk
3.2
FC Slutsk
3.1
Neman
3.0
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Zhodino
27.0
Neman
22.2
Dinamo Minsk
21.2
FC Minsk
19.0
Bate Borisov
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
63.7%
Under 9.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.6%
Under 3.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Brest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.13
0.33
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.12
0.42
1.31
0.15
0.92
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bate Borisov
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.60
0.53
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.65
0.58
0.58
0.45
0.73
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Brest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.90
1.20
0.93
1.07
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.12
0.92
1.23
0.92
1.00
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bate Borisov
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.93
0.80
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.78
0.75
0.83
0.45
0.73
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.17
2.50
0.50
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
Dinamo Brest's squad is €2m more valuable than Bate Borisov's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
Dinamo Brest and Bate Borisov have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Dinamo Brest and Bate Borisov have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
Dinamo Brest's defence is €2m more valuable than Bate Borisov's (€3m vs €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Minsk
Neman
Torpedo Zhodino
FC Vitebsk
FC Gomel
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Slutsk
Arsenal (Belarus)
Slavia Mozyr
Naftan
Smorgon
FC Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Niva