Dinamo Brest are tipped to lift the win, the model picking a home victory with a 49% chance, a draw at 28% and a Bate Borisov win at 23%. The expected goal tally sits at 2.6, with the most likely total of two goals at 26% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.2% chance. Dinamo’s home form shows they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.75 conceded against similar opposition, while Bate’s away record yields 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 90.2%, Under 4.5 cards at 79.2%, Over 1.5 goals at 74.1%, Under 25.5 fouls at 74.1%, Under 3.5 goals at 74.0%, Over 19.5 fouls at 73.1% and Over 8.5 corners at 72.5%. Dinamo’s recent run of LDLWW, after a 1-3 loss to ML Vitebsk, contrasts with Bate’s WDWDL streak following a 2-1 win over FC Minsk. The match is set to be a tightly contested affair with Dinamo’s home advantage likely to tip the balance.
Results analysis
Dinamo Brest’s recent run of two wins after a defeat set the stage for a confident home performance, while Bate Borisov, fresh from a victory, looked eager to keep the momentum. The model’s favourite was a home win at 49 percent probability, and it proved right as Dinamo Brest triumphed 3-0. The prediction of a 2-goal total fell short, but the model’s card selections were spot on: Under 5.5 cards hit, Under 4.5 cards hit, Over 1.5 hit, and Under 3.5 hit, all with strong probabilities of 90.2 percent, 79.2 percent, 74.1 percent and 74.0 percent respectively. The outcome matched the model’s expectations across the board.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Brest win✓ Hit
48.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov win✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Brest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.10
1.60
0.80
1.33
1.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.25
0.50
1.50
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.56
0.96
1.67
0.75
1.46
1.15
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bate Borisov
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.70
1.53
2.13
1.33
1.27
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.75
2.00
2.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.80
0.91
2.18
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (6)
2.83
1.33
3.67
2.00
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.7%
Under 2.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.7%
No
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.3%
0-0
8.8%
0-1
6.5%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
4.9%
Dinamo Brest goals ↓
Bate Borisov goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
6.5%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
6.1%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.4%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.8%
4.9%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.9%
1.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Brest goals (down), columns = Bate Borisov goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ML Vitebsk
2.27
Dinamo Minsk
2.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.90
FC Minsk
1.70
Dinamo Brest
1.70
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.63
Torpedo Zhodino
1.63
Neman
1.50
Belshina
1.50
FC Gomel
1.43
Bate Borisov
1.33
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.03
Smorgon
0.97
Naftan
0.93
FC Slutsk
0.77
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.37
Dinamo Brest is 0.37 points better than Bate Borisov in terms of average points per game (1.70 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
1.77
Slavia Mozyr
1.77
Dinamo Minsk
1.68
FC Minsk
1.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.40
Neman
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Vitebsk
1.23
FC Gomel
1.17
Naftan
1.17
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.90
Smorgon
0.75
FC Slutsk
0.68
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.63
Belshina
0.50
Dinamo Brest is 0.13 goals better than Bate Borisov in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.27).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Belshina
0.50
ML Vitebsk
0.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.87
Dinamo Minsk
0.90
Torpedo Zhodino
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.00
Neman
1.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
FC Gomel
1.13
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.17
Smorgon
1.38
Bate Borisov
1.43
FC Vitebsk
1.53
FC Minsk
1.57
FC Slutsk
1.65
Naftan
1.83
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.10
Dinamo Brest is 0.43 goals better than Bate Borisov in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Neman
63%
Dinamo Minsk
56%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
55%
Slavia Mozyr
50%
Bate Borisov
50%
Smorgon
45%
Arsenal (Belarus)
44%
FC Minsk
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Brest
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Bate Borisov
For 4.0 · Against 9.0 · Total 13.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 14.0 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dinamo Brest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
2.6
2.4
2.9
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
2.2
1.5
2.7
-
-
-
vs Similar (42)
-
-
-
2.8
2.6
3.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.7
1.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
32%
20%
44%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
68%
80%
56%
-
-
-
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bate Borisov
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
13.0
-
13.0
3.3
3.2
3.4
29.0
-
29.0
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
2.8
2.5
3.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
13.0
-
13.0
3.3
2.9
3.8
29.0
-
29.0
vs Weaker (9)
-
-
-
3.3
4.2
2.2
-
-
-
% over line
100%
-
100%
44%
35%
54%
100%
-
100%
% under line
0%
-
0%
56%
65%
46%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
15.0
Naftan
12.0
FC Slutsk
11.7
Torpedo Zhodino
11.3
Bate Borisov
11.0
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Minsk
10.6
Dinamo Brest
10.5
Neman
10.3
FC Gomel
10.2
FC Isloch Minsk R.
10.0
FC Vitebsk
9.0
Slavia Mozyr
8.8
FC Minsk
8.0
Smorgon
7.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.9
Smorgon
3.9
Slavia Mozyr
3.7
Bate Borisov
3.6
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.5
FC Vitebsk
3.4
FC Gomel
3.3
Naftan
3.2
Dinamo Minsk
3.1
Dinamo Brest
3.1
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
3.0
FC Minsk
2.9
Neman
2.8
FC Slutsk
2.7
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Slavia Mozyr
29.0
Arsenal (Belarus)
29.0
Bate Borisov
29.0
Dinamo Minsk
25.0
Smorgon
24.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
24.0
Neman
16.0
FC Minsk
7.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
60.8%
Under 9.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
57.3%
Under 21.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Brest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.33
0.80
0.13
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.32
0.75
0.08
0.92
0.54
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bate Borisov
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.67
0.80
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.75
0.36
0.91
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.50
1.67
0.67
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Brest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.80
0.67
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.64
0.92
0.67
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bate Borisov
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.97
0.87
1.33
1.00
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
2.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (20)
0.70
1.05
0.55
1.27
0.89
0.78
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
0.83
2.00
1.33
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
Dinamo Brest's squad is €2m more valuable than Bate Borisov's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
Dinamo Brest and Bate Borisov have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Dinamo Brest and Bate Borisov have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
Dinamo Brest's defence is €2m more valuable than Bate Borisov's (€3m vs €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →