Dinamo Brest are tipped to win, with a 45% chance of triumph, 29% for a draw and 26% for Dnepr Mogilev. The match is expected to see 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals occurring 27% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13.6% probability. Dinamo’s home form shows 0.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded against similarly matched opponents, while Dnepr’s away record is 0.89 scored and 2.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 85.6%, Under 3.5 at 74.9% (miss), Over 1.5 at 73.3% (hit), Over 3.5 cards at 70.3% and Over 8.5 corners at 70.2%. Dinamo’s recent five matches were LDLWW, coming off a defeat to ML Vitebsk 1-3, whereas Dnepr’s last five were DDDLD, coming off a 0-0 draw with FC Isloch Minsk R.
Results analysis
Dinamo Brest’s 4-0 win over FC Dnepr Mogilev extended their recent run, after a defeat to Vitebsk. The model’s favourite was a home win, with a 45% probability, and it proved correct. The predicted 2-goal total fell short of the 4-goal reality. The Under 3.5 selection, at 74.9%, missed, while the Over 1.5 pick, at 73.3%, hit. The model’s most likely score of 1-1 (13.6%) was far from the final result, and the 2-goal total was only 27% likely. Overall, the model nailed the outcome but over-estimated the goal count.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Brest win✓ Hit
45.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev win✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Brest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
1.45
0.91
1.55
0.82
1.36
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.35
0.90
1.40
0.90
1.30
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.91
2.43
1.08
2.75
0.73
2.09
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
2.20
0.33
2.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (18)
1.11
2.50
1.33
3.00
0.89
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
9% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.3%
Under 1.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.6%
Under 2.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.1%
Under 3.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
10.4%
0-0
9.1%
2-1
9.1%
2-0
8.6%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
4.9%
Dinamo Brest goals ↓
FC Dnepr Mogilev goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
7.2%
4.5%
1.6%
0.4%
1
10%
14%
6.6%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.6%
9.1%
4.9%
1.7%
0.5%
3
4.2%
4.5%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.5%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Brest goals (down), columns = FC Dnepr Mogilev goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.17
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
2.00
Dinamo Minsk
1.97
Bate Borisov
1.97
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.80
ML Vitebsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.47
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
FC Gomel
1.37
Neman
1.37
Slavia Mozyr
1.23
FC Slutsk
1.07
Belshina
1.00
Dinamo Brest
0.90
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.81
FC Vitebsk
0.73
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.40
Dinamo Brest is 0.50 points better than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of average points per game (0.90 vs 0.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
2.50
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.83
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.70
Bate Borisov
1.70
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.67
Dinamo Minsk
1.67
FC Minsk
1.57
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
Neman
1.30
Belshina
1.23
Torpedo Zhodino
1.17
FC Gomel
1.10
Dinamo Brest
0.97
FC Vitebsk
0.93
FC Slutsk
0.87
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.70
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.69
Dinamo Brest is 0.27 goals better than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 0.70).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.57
Bate Borisov
0.70
Dinamo Minsk
0.83
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.90
Torpedo Zhodino
1.07
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.10
Neman
1.10
FC Gomel
1.23
FC Slutsk
1.37
FC Minsk
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.43
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.47
Slavia Mozyr
1.53
FC Vitebsk
1.63
Belshina
1.67
ML Vitebsk
2.00
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.43
Dinamo Brest is 1.00 goals better than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 2.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Brest
For 5.4 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Dnepr Mogilev
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Brest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (22)
10.4
9.5
11.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
10.8
9.5
12.0
0.9
1.1
0.7
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
-
9.0
4.0
-
4.0
-
-
-
% over line
60%
50%
67%
18%
18%
18%
-
-
-
% under line
40%
50%
33%
82%
82%
82%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Mozyr
13.6
FC Minsk
12.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
10.8
Bate Borisov
10.8
Belshina
10.5
Dinamo Brest
10.4
FC Slutsk
10.0
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.8
Dinamo Minsk
9.6
FC Gomel
9.4
Neman
9.0
FC Vitebsk
8.8
Torpedo Zhodino
8.5
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Neman
6.4
Belshina
5.5
FC Minsk
5.3
Torpedo Zhodino
5.0
Dinamo Minsk
4.8
Bate Borisov
4.7
Shakhter Soligorsk
4.4
Dinamo Brest
4.4
FC Slutsk
4.3
FC Vitebsk
4.2
FC Isloch Minsk R.
3.8
FC Gomel
3.8
Slavia Mozyr
3.6
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
32.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.2%
Under 9.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
70.3%
Under 3.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Brest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.68
0.18
0.82
0.36
0.55
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.30
0.65
0.20
0.80
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.22
1.04
0.25
1.00
0.18
1.09
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.20
0.00
0.67
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.28
1.00
0.33
1.11
0.22
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Brest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.59
0.77
0.73
0.73
0.45
0.82
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.70
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
36% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.39
0.83
1.75
0.55
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.00
0.33
1.33
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (18)
0.83
1.50
1.00
1.89
0.67
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
Dinamo Brest's squad is €3m more valuable than FC Dnepr Mogilev's (€7m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
Dinamo Brest and FC Dnepr Mogilev have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Dinamo Brest and FC Dnepr Mogilev have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
Dinamo Brest's defence is €2m more valuable than FC Dnepr Mogilev's (€3m vs €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Soligorsk
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Bate Borisov
Dinamo Minsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Minsk
Torpedo Zhodino
Neman
FC Gomel
Slavia Mozyr
FC Slutsk
Belshina
Arsenal (Belarus)
FC Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk