Dinamo Brest are tipped to lift the win, with the model giving a 44 % chance of a home victory, 28 % for a draw and 27 % for Slavia Mozyr to prevail. The expected total is 2.6 goals, centring on a 2-goal match, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13.5 %. Dinamo’s home form shows they average 1.64 goals scored and only 0.73 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Slavia Mozyr on the road average 1.58 scored and 1.08 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 91.7 %, Under 4.5 cards at 81.7 %, Under 25.5 fouls at 80.5 %, Over 1.5 goals at 74.9 % (hit), Under 3.5 goals at 73.1 % (miss) and Under 11.5 corners at 71.2 %. Dinamo’s recent five games finish with a draw, a 1-1 against Baranovichi, while Slavia Mozyr also ended with a draw, 0-0 to FC Gomel.
Results analysis
Dinamo Brest, riding a run that now includes a win after a draw, faced Slavia Mozyr, who were also coming off a draw. The match finished 4-1 in favour of Dinamo Brest, confirming the model’s pick of a home win, which it had assigned a 44 % probability to. The predicted total of 2.6 goals was far below the actual tally of five. The model’s Over 1.5 selection hit with a 74.9 % probability, while its Under 3.5 miss came with a 73.1 % chance. All figures are taken directly from the data, with no additional commentary.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Brest win✓ Hit
44.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr win✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Brest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.00
1.56
0.75
1.14
1.29
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.50
0.00
2.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.48
0.90
1.64
0.73
1.30
1.10
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.20
2.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.07
1.87
0.87
1.67
1.27
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
1.75
1.50
1.00
2.00
2.50
vs Similar (24)
1.75
1.00
1.92
0.92
1.58
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.9%
Under 1.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.7%
Under 2.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.9%
Under 3.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.5%
2-0
8.1%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
5.2%
Dinamo Brest goals ↓
Slavia Mozyr goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
7.0%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
1
9.6%
13%
6.9%
2.6%
0.7%
2
8.1%
9.1%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.0%
4.6%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.5%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Brest goals (down), columns = Slavia Mozyr goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ML Vitebsk
2.27
Dinamo Minsk
2.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.90
Dinamo Brest
1.70
FC Minsk
1.70
Torpedo Zhodino
1.63
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.63
Belshina
1.50
Neman
1.50
FC Gomel
1.43
Bate Borisov
1.33
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.31
Baranovichi
1.28
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.03
Naftan
0.93
Dinamo Brest is 0.20 points worse than Slavia Mozyr in terms of average points per game (1.70 vs 1.90).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
1.77
Slavia Mozyr
1.77
Dinamo Minsk
1.68
FC Minsk
1.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.40
Neman
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Vitebsk
1.23
Naftan
1.17
FC Gomel
1.17
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.15
Baranovichi
1.12
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.90
Belshina
0.50
Dinamo Brest is 0.37 goals worse than Slavia Mozyr in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Belshina
0.50
ML Vitebsk
0.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.87
Dinamo Minsk
0.90
Dinamo Brest
1.00
Torpedo Zhodino
1.00
Neman
1.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
FC Gomel
1.13
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.17
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.30
Baranovichi
1.34
Bate Borisov
1.43
FC Vitebsk
1.53
FC Minsk
1.57
Naftan
1.83
Dinamo Brest is 0.07 goals better than Slavia Mozyr in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.07).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Neman
63%
Dinamo Minsk
56%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
55%
Bate Borisov
50%
Slavia Mozyr
50%
Arsenal (Belarus)
44%
FC Minsk
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Brest
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.1 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Slavia Mozyr
For 9.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 13.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 15.0 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dinamo Brest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
2.5
2.3
2.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
2.3
2.0
2.7
-
-
-
vs Similar (35)
-
-
-
2.5
2.4
2.6
-
-
-
vs Weaker (9)
-
-
-
2.6
1.8
3.2
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
28%
16%
40%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
72%
84%
60%
-
-
-
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
13.0
13.0
-
3.1
3.5
2.7
29.0
29.0
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
1.4
2.0
1.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (42)
13.0
13.0
-
3.4
3.8
3.0
29.0
29.0
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
1.7
1.5
2.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
-
42%
50%
35%
100%
100%
-
% under line
0%
0%
-
58%
50%
65%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Mozyr
13.0
Bate Borisov
13.0
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Minsk
10.6
Arsenal (Belarus)
10.0
FC Dnepr Mogilev
8.5
FC Isloch Minsk R.
8.0
Neman
6.8
FC Minsk
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
5.3
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.6
Bate Borisov
3.5
Slavia Mozyr
3.5
FC Vitebsk
3.2
Naftan
3.1
Dinamo Minsk
3.0
Neman
3.0
FC Gomel
3.0
FC Minsk
2.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.9
Dinamo Brest
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Slavia Mozyr
29.0
Arsenal (Belarus)
29.0
Bate Borisov
29.0
Dinamo Minsk
25.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
24.0
FC Dnepr Mogilev
21.0
Neman
16.0
FC Minsk
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.6%
Under 9.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
35.0%
Under 3.5
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
49.1%
Under 21.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Brest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.30
0.88
0.19
0.71
0.43
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.24
0.91
0.09
0.70
0.40
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.20
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.87
0.13
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.46
1.00
0.17
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Brest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.69
0.56
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.64
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.73
1.00
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.96
0.54
0.92
0.75
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Belarus: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →