PythiaFootballBETA
This encounter between Dinamo Makhachkala and Lokomotiv is finely balanced, with Lokomotiv's recent form a key storyline. Lokomotiv drew 0-0 against Akron last time out, while Dinamo Makhachkala suffered a 1-3 defeat to Dynamo.
The model predicts an away win, with a 38% chance of Lokomotiv emerging victorious. However, Dinamo Makhachkala still has a 32% chance of winning at home, and a 30% chance of the match ending in a draw. The expected total number of goals is 2.4, with the most likely total number of goals being 2.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 14.3%. Lokomotiv's away form is impressive, with an average of 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded against weaker opponents. Dinamo Makhachkala's home form is less convincing, with an average of 0.75 goals scored and 1 goal conceded against stronger opponents.
The model's selections include Under 3.5, with a 77.5% chance of success, and Over 1.5, with a 70.8% chance of success. There is also an Over 21.5 fouls selection, with a 90.1% chance of missing.
Dinamo Makhachkala pulled off a stunning upset, defeating Lokomotiv 2-1, in a game where the pre-match favourite failed to deliver. The model's selection, an away win, was incorrect, with Lokomotiv's recent form away from home, coming off a draw against Akron, not translating to a victory. The model's call was wrong, as Lokomotiv's away win was not the outcome. The model's selection had a pre-match probability of 38%. The model suggested an Over 1.5 goals, which hit, and an Under 3.5, which also hit, both with probabilities of 70.8% and 77.5% respectively. The model's selection for Over 21.5 fouls missed, with a probability of 90.1%.
Dinamo Makhachkala| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.13 | 0.87 | 0.93 | 0.80 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.50 | 1.58 | 0.33 | 1.17 | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.06 | 0.83 | 1.22 | 0.78 | 0.89 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+3pp vs league) | |||||
Lokomotiv| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.30 | 1.50 | 0.79 | 1.69 | 1.75 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.46 | 1.54 | 1.29 | 0.71 | 1.67 | 2.50 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 1.93 | 1.13 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.89 | 1.22 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
| Lokomotiv goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 10% | 10% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 8.9% | 14% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 5.8% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 2.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Dinamo MakhachkalaLokomotivDinamo Makhachkala| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 7.8 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 30.2 | 31.7 | 29.0 |
| vs Stronger (20) | 8.7 | 7.5 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 29.5 | 31.6 | 27.1 |
| vs Similar (30) | 9.2 | 8.1 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 30.7 | 31.8 | 29.9 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 51% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 65% | 52% | 95% | 94% | 95% |
| % under line | 49% | 67% | 33% | 42% | 35% | 48% | 5% | 6% | 5% |
Lokomotiv| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 27.5 | 27.9 | 27.0 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 7.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 28.5 | 29.0 | 28.0 |
| vs Similar (20) | 8.9 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 28.2 | 29.1 | 27.3 |
| vs Weaker (28) | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 26.9 | 27.1 | 26.7 |
| % over line | 49% | 42% | 56% | 52% | 56% | 48% | 86% | 84% | 89% |
| % under line | 51% | 58% | 44% | 48% | 44% | 52% | 14% | 16% | 11% |
Dinamo Makhachkala| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.42 | 0.58 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.50 | 0.61 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
Lokomotiv| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.63 | 0.93 | 0.43 | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.71 | 0.43 | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 1.07 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 0.89 | 0.78 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
Dinamo Makhachkala| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.27 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.08 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.83 | 0.17 | 1.17 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.56 | 0.22 | 0.78 | 0.22 | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
Lokomotiv| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.36 | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.77 | 0.92 | 0.57 | 0.29 | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 0.87 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.44 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 96.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 92.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 cards | 84.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 84.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 11.5 corners | 82.2% | 1.26 | 1.31 | 1.23 | 1.23 | - | - | +9.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 77.5% | 1.25 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.24 | 1.24 | - | +3.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 25.5 fouls | 73.3% | 1.39 | 1.39 | - | - | - | - | +7.7% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 10.5 corners | 73.0% | 1.46 | 1.49 | 1.44 | 1.44 | - | - | +9.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 70.8% | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | +0.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 20/09/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 11/03/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 28/02/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/08/24 | A | 2-0 |
Dinamo Makhachkala| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 20/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 23/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-1 |
Lokomotiv| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 5-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 8.4 | 40% | 4.2 | 80% | 23.8 | 60% | 125 | 64 | 20 | 41 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 57% |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 100% | 80% | 0% | 11.2 | 60% | 5.8 | 80% | 28.6 | 100% | 119 | 58 | 29 | 32 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 60% |
| 3 |  CSKA Moscow | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 7.2 | 20% | 3.4 | 20% | 25.8 | 80% | 137 | 41 | 52 | 44 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 57% |
| 4 |  Zenit | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 3.2 | 100% | 80% | 20% | 10.2 | 40% | 5.2 | 80% | 26.8 | 60% | 204 | 109 | 44 | 51 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 57% |
| 5 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | 10.0 | 80% | 4.0 | 40% | 23.8 | 60% | 23 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 39% |
| 6 |  Baltika | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 100% | 60% | 0% | 9.2 | 40% | 2.6 | 20% | 25.6 | 80% | 36 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 37% |
| 7 |  Dynamo | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 40% | 7.8 | 20% | 4.5 | 75% | 27.4 | 100% | 111 | 46 | 23 | 41 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 65% |
| 8 |  Rubin | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 2.6 | 100% | 40% | 20% | 7.8 | 20% | 3.0 | 20% | 24.6 | 60% | 53 | 18 | 13 | 22 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 45% |
| 9 |  FC Orenburg | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 80% | 40% | 0% | 8.8 | 40% | 4.8 | 60% | 29.0 | 100% | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 41% |
| 10 |  Akhmat | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 7.8 | 20% | 3.4 | 40% | 25.2 | 80% | 32 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 43% |
| 11 |  FC Rostov | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 7.2 | 20% | 4.2 | 20% | 26.8 | 80% | 37 | 17 | 3 | 17 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 50% |
| 12 |  Krylia Sovetov | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 8.6 | 20% | 4.8 | 50% | 27.4 | 80% | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 13 |  Rodina Moskva | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | 10.8 | 60% | 3.0 | 20% | 26.6 | 80% | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 39% |
| 14 | Lokomotiv | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 7.8 | 20% | 3.4 | 20% | 27.4 | 80% | 111 | 53 | 18 | 41 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 15 |  Fakel | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1.8 | 40% | 40% | 20% | 10.2 | 80% | 3.6 | 60% | 25.6 | 80% | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 16 |  Akron | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 3.4 | 80% | 80% | 40% | 8.6 | 20% | 4.4 | 60% | 25.6 | 60% | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 57% |