Dinamo Minsk enter the match as the clear favourite, a 67% chance of victory that the model rates highly because their home form is strong against weaker opposition, averaging 1.88 goals scored and only 0.38 conceded. Their recent five-game run, however, shows a dip after two straight defeats, ending with a 0-1 loss to Baranovichi, but the venue advantage still outweighs that slump. Arsenal (Belarus) have struggled away, losing all five of their last games and conceding four in a 2-4 defeat to Torpedo Zhodino, making a home win the most likely outcome.
The model predicts an average of 2.6 goals, with the most probable total being two goals (26% probability). The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13.7% chance. Dinamo’s home scoring and conceding figures against weaker teams support this outcome.
Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 74.9% and Under 3.5 goals at 72.9%. The probabilities for the match result are 67% for a home win, 22% for a draw, and 11% for an away win.
Results analysis
Dinamo Minsk extended their recent run, turning a string of two defeats into a win at home. The model’s favourite, a home win, came through with a 2-0 result, matching the 67% probability the system assigned. The predicted 2-goal total materialised, and the most likely scoreline of 2-0 was indeed achieved. Over 1.5 goals hit the mark with a 74.9% chance, while Under 3.5 also proved correct at 72.9%. Every suggested pick settled as forecast, confirming the model’s selections were largely accurate. The outcome was a clean sweep for the model’s predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Minsk win✓ Hit
66.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) win✗ Miss
11.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.57
1.40
0.47
1.40
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.75
1.00
0.60
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.89
0.39
1.88
0.38
1.90
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal (Belarus)) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal (Belarus)
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.33
1.62
1.25
1.50
1.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.48
1.22
1.71
1.00
1.23
1.46
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
-
-
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.9%
Under 1.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.0%
Under 2.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.1%
Under 3.5
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.2%
No
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 ✓
13.7%
1-0
13.1%
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
9.0%
0-0
8.1%
3-1
6.1%
4-0
4.4%
Dinamo Minsk goals ↓
Arsenal (Belarus) goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
3.9%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
1
13%
10%
3.2%
0.7%
0.1%
2
14%
9.3%
3.2%
0.7%
0.1%
3
9.0%
6.1%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
4
4.4%
3.0%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Minsk goals (down), columns = Arsenal (Belarus) goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.27
Neman
2.17
Torpedo Zhodino
2.07
Dinamo Brest
1.63
FC Vitebsk
1.57
FC Gomel
1.47
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.33
FC Slutsk
1.30
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.27
Slavia Mozyr
1.17
Smorgon
1.07
Naftan
1.00
FC Minsk
0.93
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.73
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.60
Niva
0.00
Dinamo Minsk is 1.00 points better than Arsenal (Belarus) in terms of average points per game (2.27 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Brest
2.07
Dinamo Minsk
1.67
Neman
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.50
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Gomel
1.23
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.20
Smorgon
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.10
Naftan
1.00
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.97
Slavia Mozyr
0.93
FC Minsk
0.93
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.90
FC Slutsk
0.87
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.63
Niva
0.50
Dinamo Minsk is 0.70 goals better than Arsenal (Belarus) in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Minsk
0.43
Neman
0.63
Torpedo Zhodino
0.70
FC Vitebsk
0.83
FC Gomel
0.93
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.00
Slavia Mozyr
1.10
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.20
Dinamo Brest
1.23
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Slutsk
1.37
Naftan
1.41
FC Minsk
1.47
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.50
Smorgon
1.70
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.93
Niva
2.50
Dinamo Minsk is 0.77 goals better than Arsenal (Belarus) in terms of goals conceded per game (0.43 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Minsk
For 4.0 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 0.9 · Total 1.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 8.3 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arsenal (Belarus)
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Minsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.6
10.0
2.2
2.2
2.2
20.7
18.0
22.0
vs Stronger (4)
9.0
-
9.0
1.5
2.0
1.0
15.0
-
15.0
vs Similar (13)
10.5
10.7
10.3
2.7
2.0
3.8
23.5
18.0
29.0
vs Weaker (33)
9.5
9.0
10.0
2.1
2.3
1.9
-
-
-
% over line
53%
62%
44%
34%
36%
32%
33%
0%
50%
% under line
47%
38%
56%
66%
64%
68%
67%
100%
50%
This opponent (Arsenal (Belarus)) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal (Belarus)
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
1.3
1.5
1.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.3
0.5
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
-
-
-
1.5
1.6
1.5
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
16%
21%
12%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
84%
79%
88%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Naftan
13.1
Dinamo Brest
11.3
Bate Borisov
10.7
FC Gomel
10.3
FC Slutsk
10.2
Slavia Mozyr
10.1
Smorgon
10.1
Torpedo Zhodino
10.1
Dinamo Minsk
10.0
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.4
FC Isloch Minsk R.
9.4
FC Minsk
9.3
Neman
9.2
FC Vitebsk
8.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bate Borisov
4.1
Slavia Mozyr
3.9
Smorgon
3.8
Shakhter Soligorsk
3.8
Naftan
3.7
FC Vitebsk
3.6
FC Minsk
3.6
Dinamo Brest
3.5
FC Gomel
3.5
Torpedo Zhodino
3.4
FC Isloch Minsk R.
3.3
Dinamo Minsk
3.3
FC Slutsk
3.2
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.2
Neman
3.0
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Zhodino
27.0
Neman
22.2
Dinamo Minsk
20.7
FC Minsk
19.0
Bate Borisov
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.33
0.60
0.27
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.25
0.60
0.20
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.28
0.62
0.25
1.00
0.30
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal (Belarus)) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal (Belarus)
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.81
0.75
0.86
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.67
0.79
0.64
0.69
0.69
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.23
0.80
0.20
0.73
0.27
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.40
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
1.06
0.11
1.25
0.12
0.90
0.10
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal (Belarus)) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal (Belarus)
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.81
0.50
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.56
0.93
0.36
0.54
0.77
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dinamo Minsk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Steven Alfred33%
Raymond Adeola25%
Aleksei Gavrilovich20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Dmitri Podstrelov0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Rai Lopes0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Steven Alfred67%
Daniil Kulikov40%
Aleksei Gavrilovich40%
Vladislav Kalinin40%
Trofim Melnichenko25%
Dmitri Podstrelov20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Pavel Sedko20%
Nikita Demchenko17%
Vadim Pigas17%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Rai Lopes0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Boni Amian0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rai Lopes17%
Vadim Pigas17%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Aleksei Gavrilovich0%
Dmitri Podstrelov0%
Gleb Zherdev0%
Steven Alfred0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Steven Alfred67%
Dmitri Podstrelov20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Aleksei Gavrilovich0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Rai Lopes0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
Dinamo Minsk's squad is €7m more valuable than Arsenal (Belarus)'s (€9m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
Dinamo Minsk's attack is €2m more valuable than Arsenal (Belarus)'s (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Dinamo Minsk's midfield is €2m more valuable than Arsenal (Belarus)'s (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
Dinamo Minsk's defence is €3m more valuable than Arsenal (Belarus)'s (€3m vs €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
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Neman
Torpedo Zhodino
Dinamo Brest
FC Vitebsk
FC Gomel
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Bate Borisov
FC Slutsk
Slavia Mozyr
Naftan
Smorgon
FC Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Niva