Dinamo Minsk are tipped to win the match against Naftan, with the model favouring a home victory and an overall low-scoring affair. The expected total goals sit at 2.5, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.3% chance. Dinamo’s home form shows a solid defensive record, conceding only 0.85 goals per game against weaker opposition, while scoring 1.77. Naftan, playing away against a stronger side, has been prolific, netting 2.5 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet average of 0.0. The probabilities for the match result are 49% for a home win, 28% for a draw, and 23% for an away win. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 84.7%, Over 8.5 corners at 83.0%, Under 3.5 at 75.5% (miss), Over 9.5 corners at 73.7%, and Over 1.5 at 72.7% (hit). These figures suggest a tight contest with Dinamo likely to edge it.
Results analysis
Dinamo Minsk’s 3-1 victory over Naftan continued a form that had seen two straight defeats, yet the win extended their recent run. The model’s pre-match favourite, Home win, with a 49% probability, proved correct. The suggested picks delivered mixed results: Under 3.5, with a 75.5% chance, missed as the match produced three goals, while Over 1.5, at 72.7%, hit. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 (13.3%) and 1-0 (11.3%) were not achieved, but the 2-0 (9.6%) was close to the final tally. Overall, the model’s call and key selections performed largely as expected.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Minsk win✓ Hit
49.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naftan win✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.90
1.69
0.88
2.07
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
2.00
1.67
1.33
1.00
2.67
2.33
vs Weaker (24)
1.83
0.71
1.77
0.85
1.91
0.55
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
0.79
2.07
0.86
2.07
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
2.50
1.25
2.50
2.50
2.50
0.00
vs Similar (18)
1.89
0.83
1.56
0.78
2.22
0.89
vs Weaker (6)
2.33
0.33
3.33
0.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.7%
Under 1.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.9%
Under 2.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.5%
Under 3.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
11.3%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
9.4%
0-0
9.3%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.0%
Dinamo Minsk goals ↓
Naftan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
6.7%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.9%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.6%
9.4%
4.5%
1.5%
0.4%
3
5.0%
4.8%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.9%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Minsk goals (down), columns = Naftan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.46
Neman
2.21
FC Vitebsk
2.00
Torpedo Zhodino
1.75
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.68
Bate Borisov
1.68
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.57
FC Gomel
1.46
Slavia Mozyr
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.25
FC Minsk
1.18
Dinamo Brest
1.07
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.93
Smorgon
0.89
Naftan
0.75
Belshina
0.50
Dinamo Minsk is 1.71 points better than Naftan in terms of average points per game (2.46 vs 0.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.57
Neman
2.14
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.79
Bate Borisov
1.75
FC Gomel
1.61
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.36
Torpedo Zhodino
1.18
Dinamo Brest
1.18
Slavia Mozyr
1.14
Smorgon
1.07
Naftan
0.96
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.83
FC Minsk
0.75
Belshina
0.75
FC Vitebsk
0.50
Dinamo Minsk is 1.61 goals better than Naftan in terms of goals scored per game (2.57 vs 0.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.00
Torpedo Zhodino
0.64
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Neman
0.79
FC Minsk
0.93
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.04
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
Bate Borisov
1.14
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.43
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
FC Gomel
1.71
Dinamo Brest
1.79
Smorgon
2.07
Naftan
2.11
Belshina
2.18
Dinamo Minsk is 1.36 goals better than Naftan in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 2.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Minsk
For 5.7 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Naftan
For 4.7 · Against 9.0 · Total 13.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Minsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (38)
9.8
9.9
9.7
1.6
1.5
1.6
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
9.3
10.0
9.0
3.2
2.7
3.7
-
-
-
vs Weaker (32)
9.9
9.8
10.0
1.2
1.3
1.2
-
-
-
% over line
62%
57%
67%
24%
26%
21%
-
-
-
% under line
38%
43%
33%
76%
74%
79%
-
-
-
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (28)
13.7
12.0
17.0
0.4
0.3
0.4
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
13.7
12.0
17.0
0.6
0.4
0.7
-
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
100%
7%
7%
7%
-
-
-
% under line
0%
0%
0%
93%
93%
93%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Naftan
13.7
Slavia Mozyr
12.7
FC Minsk
11.7
Smorgon
11.5
FC Isloch Minsk R.
11.0
Bate Borisov
10.4
Belshina
10.4
FC Slutsk
10.4
Shakhter Soligorsk
10.3
Neman
10.2
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
10.0
Dinamo Minsk
9.8
Dinamo Brest
9.7
FC Gomel
9.5
FC Vitebsk
9.0
Torpedo Zhodino
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Neman
5.9
Torpedo Zhodino
5.1
Naftan
5.0
Dinamo Minsk
4.9
Belshina
4.9
FC Minsk
4.6
Dinamo Brest
4.5
Shakhter Soligorsk
4.4
Bate Borisov
4.4
FC Slutsk
4.3
FC Vitebsk
4.2
Slavia Mozyr
3.9
FC Isloch Minsk R.
3.9
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
3.6
FC Gomel
3.6
Smorgon
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
32.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
73.7%
Under 9.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
69.0%
Under 3.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.37
0.69
0.31
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.83
0.33
0.33
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (24)
0.62
0.25
0.77
0.31
0.45
0.18
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
0.25
0.57
0.36
0.86
0.14
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.28
0.56
0.44
0.67
0.11
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.17
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
75% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.53
1.00
0.56
1.43
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
0.83
1.00
0.67
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.21
0.46
1.00
0.54
1.45
0.36
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.36
0.54
1.50
0.50
1.21
0.57
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
1.00
2.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
1.28
0.56
1.00
0.33
1.56
0.78
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.17
2.33
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
64% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 9.5 corners
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dinamo Minsk · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Steven Alfred33%
Raymond Adeola25%
Aleksei Gavrilovich20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Dmitri Podstrelov0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Rai Lopes0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Steven Alfred67%
Daniil Kulikov40%
Aleksei Gavrilovich40%
Vladislav Kalinin40%
Trofim Melnichenko25%
Dmitri Podstrelov20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Pavel Sedko20%
Nikita Demchenko17%
Vadim Pigas17%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Rai Lopes0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Boni Amian0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rai Lopes17%
Vadim Pigas17%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Aleksei Gavrilovich0%
Dmitri Podstrelov0%
Gleb Zherdev0%
Steven Alfred0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Steven Alfred67%
Dmitri Podstrelov20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Aleksei Gavrilovich0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Rai Lopes0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
Dinamo Minsk's squad is €7m more valuable than Naftan's (€9m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
Dinamo Minsk's attack is €3m more valuable than Naftan's (€3m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
SMO (7)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Dinamo Minsk's midfield is €2m more valuable than Naftan's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
Dinamo Minsk's defence is €3m more valuable than Naftan's (€3m vs €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
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Neman
Torpedo Zhodino
Bate Borisov
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Shakhter Soligorsk
FC Gomel
Slavia Mozyr
FC Slutsk
FC Minsk
Dinamo Brest
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Smorgon
Belshina
FC Vitebsk