Dinamo Minsk’s recent slump of two straight defeats has not dampened the model’s confidence that they will win at home. Their home form shows a potent 2.08 goals per game and a stingy 0.38 conceded, especially against weaker opposition, while Naftan’s away record is a modest 0.33 scored and 2.33 conceded against stronger teams. The model therefore rates a home win at 66%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 12%, picking a 2-0 scoreline as the most likely result with a 12.6% chance. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the most probable total of two goals at 25%. In addition to the home win, the model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 87.4%, Under 4.5 cards at 74.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 77.7% and Over 8.5 corners at 73.1%. All figures are expressed as percentages and each selection is listed with its probability.
Results analysis
Dinamo Minsk extended their recent form streak with a 1-0 win over Naftan, keeping the home side’s winning run alive after two straight defeats. The model’s pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 66% probability and proved correct. The predicted 2-0 scoreline was not reached, but the 1-0 result still matched the home advantage. The model’s selections performed well: Under 5.5 cards hit at 87.4% and Under 4.5 cards hit at 74.9%, while Over 1.5 cards missed at 77.7%. Overall, the model’s call and key picks were largely accurate, confirming Dinamo Minsk’s dominance at home.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Minsk win✓ Hit
65.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naftan win✗ Miss
12.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.93
1.94
0.56
0.71
1.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (7)
0.57
1.14
1.50
1.00
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (21)
1.71
0.67
2.08
0.38
1.12
1.12
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.63
0.88
2.00
1.14
1.21
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
2.11
0.50
2.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (21)
1.24
1.43
1.10
2.00
1.36
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.7%
Under 1.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.8%
Under 2.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.6%
Under 3.5
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.4%
No
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.6%
1-0 ✓
11.5%
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.6%
3-0
8.5%
0-0
7.1%
3-1
6.5%
4-0
4.3%
Dinamo Minsk goals ↓
Naftan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
3.8%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
1
11%
10%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
9.6%
3.7%
0.9%
0.2%
3
8.5%
6.5%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
4
4.3%
3.3%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Minsk goals (down), columns = Naftan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ML Vitebsk
2.27
Dinamo Minsk
2.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.90
FC Minsk
1.70
Dinamo Brest
1.70
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.63
Torpedo Zhodino
1.63
Neman
1.50
Belshina
1.50
FC Gomel
1.43
Bate Borisov
1.33
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.03
Smorgon
0.97
Naftan
0.93
FC Slutsk
0.77
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.37
Dinamo Minsk is 1.10 points better than Naftan in terms of average points per game (2.03 vs 0.93).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
1.77
Slavia Mozyr
1.77
Dinamo Minsk
1.68
FC Minsk
1.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.40
Neman
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Vitebsk
1.23
FC Gomel
1.17
Naftan
1.17
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.90
Smorgon
0.75
FC Slutsk
0.68
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.63
Belshina
0.50
Dinamo Minsk is 0.51 goals better than Naftan in terms of goals scored per game (1.68 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Belshina
0.50
ML Vitebsk
0.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.87
Dinamo Minsk
0.90
Torpedo Zhodino
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.00
Neman
1.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
FC Gomel
1.13
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.17
Smorgon
1.38
Bate Borisov
1.43
FC Vitebsk
1.53
FC Minsk
1.57
FC Slutsk
1.65
Naftan
1.83
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.10
Dinamo Minsk is 0.93 goals better than Naftan in terms of goals conceded per game (0.90 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Neman
63%
Dinamo Minsk
56%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
55%
Slavia Mozyr
50%
Bate Borisov
50%
Smorgon
45%
Arsenal (Belarus)
44%
FC Minsk
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Minsk
For 4.7 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.7 · Against 9.3 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Naftan
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Minsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.0
10.8
2.8
2.7
3.0
24.4
27.0
22.5
vs Stronger (6)
10.0
9.0
10.5
2.7
2.7
2.7
22.3
29.0
19.0
vs Similar (13)
10.0
9.0
11.0
3.2
3.0
3.3
26.0
26.0
26.0
vs Weaker (31)
-
-
-
2.7
2.6
2.9
-
-
-
% over line
43%
33%
50%
40%
44%
36%
71%
67%
75%
% under line
57%
67%
50%
60%
56%
64%
29%
33%
25%
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
13.7
15.0
12.0
3.1
2.5
3.7
-
-
-
vs Stronger (18)
12.0
15.5
9.7
2.7
2.1
3.5
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
15.8
14.7
19.0
3.3
2.8
3.8
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
78%
100%
50%
36%
31%
42%
-
-
-
% under line
22%
0%
50%
64%
69%
58%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Naftan
13.6
Dinamo Brest
12.6
FC Gomel
11.2
Bate Borisov
10.9
Belshina
10.9
Torpedo Zhodino
10.6
Slavia Mozyr
10.3
FC Slutsk
10.2
Smorgon
9.9
Neman
9.6
FC Minsk
9.4
Dinamo Minsk
9.4
FC Isloch Minsk R.
9.2
FC Vitebsk
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.9
Smorgon
3.9
Bate Borisov
3.8
Slavia Mozyr
3.7
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.6
Naftan
3.6
FC Vitebsk
3.5
FC Gomel
3.5
FC Minsk
3.3
Dinamo Brest
3.3
Dinamo Minsk
3.1
FC Slutsk
3.1
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.8
Torpedo Zhodino
2.8
Neman
2.8
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Zhodino
27.0
Dinamo Minsk
24.4
FC Minsk
19.0
Neman
19.0
Bate Borisov
15.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
61.4%
Under 9.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.5%
Under 3.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.33
0.75
0.31
0.36
0.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.29
0.50
0.50
0.20
0.20
vs Weaker (21)
0.67
0.29
0.77
0.23
0.50
0.38
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.50
0.88
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.11
0.50
0.83
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.67
0.50
0.90
0.73
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
1.19
0.25
0.36
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.86
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
0.38
1.31
0.15
0.62
0.75
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.38
1.12
0.57
0.50
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
1.00
0.00
1.17
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.76
0.60
1.10
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dinamo Minsk · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Steven Alfred33%
Raymond Adeola25%
Aleksei Gavrilovich20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Dmitri Podstrelov0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Rai Lopes0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Steven Alfred67%
Daniil Kulikov40%
Aleksei Gavrilovich40%
Vladislav Kalinin40%
Trofim Melnichenko25%
Dmitri Podstrelov20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Pavel Sedko20%
Nikita Demchenko17%
Vadim Pigas17%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Rai Lopes0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Boni Amian0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rai Lopes17%
Vadim Pigas17%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Aleksei Gavrilovich0%
Dmitri Podstrelov0%
Gleb Zherdev0%
Steven Alfred0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Steven Alfred67%
Dmitri Podstrelov20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Aleksei Gavrilovich0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Rai Lopes0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
Dinamo Minsk's squad is €7m more valuable than Naftan's (€9m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
Dinamo Minsk's attack is €3m more valuable than Naftan's (€3m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Dinamo Minsk's midfield is €2m more valuable than Naftan's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
Dinamo Minsk's defence is €3m more valuable than Naftan's (€3m vs €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
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ML Vitebsk
Slavia Mozyr
Dinamo Brest
FC Minsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Torpedo Zhodino
Neman
FC Gomel
Bate Borisov
Arsenal (Belarus)
FC Vitebsk
Smorgon
FC Slutsk
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Belshina