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Dinamo Rīga vs Tukums II Result & Analysis

Date: 07/10/2023
Time: 10:00
Final 3-4
Dinamo Rīga
Dinamo Rīga
Vs
30%
24%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tukums II
Tukums II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dinamo Rīga win✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums II win✓ Hit
45.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W12L06L21W41W40W14L40W11D00DA·RĒZ23/07H·RIG29/07H·GRO06/08A·VAL12/08H·RĪG19/08A·JDF26/08H·SKA02/09A·PRO17/09H·SMI23/09A·SAL01/10
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.932.500.672.801.202.20
vs Stronger (7)1.573.141.672.331.503.75
vs Similar (17)0.652.180.442.890.881.38
vs Weaker (6)1.002.670.333.001.672.33
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tukums IITukums II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W23L04L01L10W03L31W30W12L11DH·RĒZ08/07A·RIG22/07A·GRO30/07A·VAL04/08A·RĪG11/08A·SKA27/08H·PRO02/09A·SMI16/09A·SAL24/09H·JFK30/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.302.071.571.641.062.44
vs Stronger (30)1.302.071.571.641.062.44
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Rīga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.0%
Under 1.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.6%
Under 2.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.7%
Under 3.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.8%
No
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.2%
2-2
6.8%
0-2
6.0%
1-3
5.6%
0-1
5.4%
0-0
4.4%
Dinamo Rīga goals ↓
Tukums II goals →
01234
04.4%5.4%6.0%3.7%1.7%
14.2%11%9.0%5.6%2.6%
23.9%7.2%6.8%4.2%2.0%
31.9%3.6%3.4%2.1%1.0%
40.7%1.4%1.3%0.8%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Rīga goals (down), columns = Tukums II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Grobiņa
2.54
Riga FC II
2.44
Skanste
2.19
JDFS Alberts
1.81
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
Rīgas FS II
1.42
Beitar
1.32
Tukums II
1.27
JFK Ventspils
1.08
Valmiera II
1.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.88
Smiltene
0.85
Dinamo Rīga
0.82
Rēzekne FA
0.40
Dinamo Rīga is 0.45 points worse than Tukums II in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 1.27).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga FC II
3.28
Grobiņa
2.73
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Rīgas FS II
2.23
Skanste
2.23
Beitar
1.64
Tukums II
1.58
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.38
Dinamo Rīga
1.23
Smiltene
1.19
Valmiera II
1.15
JFK Ventspils
0.84
Rēzekne FA
0.60
Dinamo Rīga is 0.35 goals worse than Tukums II in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.58).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga FC II
0.60
Grobiņa
0.65
Skanste
0.92
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.16
JDFS Alberts
1.38
Valmiera II
1.54
Rīgas FS II
1.62
Tukums II
2.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.35
Dinamo Rīga
2.45
Smiltene
2.58
Beitar
2.64
Rēzekne FA
3.12
Dinamo Rīga is 0.38 goals worse than Tukums II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.45 vs 2.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D02L03L20W20W20W13L00D11D00DA·RĒZ23/07H·RIG29/07H·GRO06/08A·VAL12/08H·RĪG19/08A·JDF26/08H·SKA02/09A·PRO17/09H·SMI23/09A·SAL01/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.230.361.570.500.94
vs Stronger (7)1.001.711.001.671.001.75
vs Similar (17)0.181.120.251.620.110.67
vs Weaker (6)0.501.000.001.331.000.67
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tukums IITukums II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W03L00D00D00D30W20W01L10WH·RĒZ08/07A·RIG22/07A·GRO30/07A·VAL04/08A·RĪG11/08A·SKA27/08H·PRO02/09A·SMI16/09A·SAL24/09H·JFK30/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.930.710.790.501.06
vs Stronger (30)0.600.930.710.790.501.06
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Rīga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W03L01L21W20W01L40W00D00DA·RĒZ23/07H·RIG29/07H·GRO06/08A·VAL12/08H·RĪG19/08A·JDF26/08H·SKA02/09A·PRO17/09H·SMI23/09A·SAL01/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.270.361.210.621.31
vs Stronger (7)0.571.430.670.670.502.00
vs Similar (17)0.471.060.251.250.670.89
vs Weaker (6)0.501.670.331.670.671.67
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tukums IITukums II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D02L01L01L10W03L01L10W11D01LH·RĒZ08/07A·RIG22/07A·GRO30/07A·VAL04/08A·RĪG11/08A·SKA27/08H·PRO02/09A·SMI16/09A·SAL24/09H·JFK30/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.130.860.860.561.38
vs Stronger (30)0.701.130.860.860.561.38
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Rīga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (25)
€3m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (10)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (6)
€1m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (9)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
DR wins
0
Draws
2
TI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dinamo Rīga vs Tukums II · H/A from DR
DateH/AGameScore
04/06/23ATukums II Vs DR2-1
15/10/22ATukums II Vs DR5-0
19/06/22HDR Vs Tukums II4-0

Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/10/23ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs DR0-0
23/09/23HDR Vs Smiltene1-1
17/09/23AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs DR0-4
02/09/23HDR Vs Skanste1-4
26/08/23AJDFS Alberts Vs DR0-4
19/08/23HDR Vs Rīgas FS II4-1
12/08/23AValmiera II Vs DR1-2
06/08/23HDR Vs Grobiņa0-6
29/07/23HDR Vs Riga FC II1-2
23/07/23ARēzekne FA Vs DR1-2

Tukums IITukums II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/09/23HTI Vs JFK Ventspils1-1
24/09/23ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs TI2-1
16/09/23ASmiltene Vs TI0-3
02/09/23HTI Vs Progress / AFA Olaine3-1
27/08/23ASkanste Vs TI3-0
11/08/23ARīgas FS II Vs TI0-1
04/08/23AValmiera II Vs TI1-0
30/07/23AGrobiņa Vs TI4-0
22/07/23ARiga FC II Vs TI3-2
08/07/23HTI Vs Rēzekne FA2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dinamo Rīga
Dinamo Rīga
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDD0.85
HomeLLWLD0.70
AwayWWWWD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %23%17%29%
AVG goals3.153.173.12
Over 1.5 %74%74%75%
Over 2.5 %57%52%62%
Over 3.5 %38%39%38%
Scored0.870.780.96
Conceded2.282.392.17
BTTS34%35%33%
Clean Sheet21%22%21%
Corners---
Cards---
Tukums II
Tukums II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLD0.98
HomeLWWWD1.23
AwayLWLWL0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%36%21%
AVG goals3.593.593.58
Over 1.5 %80%86%75%
Over 2.5 %72%82%62%
Over 3.5 %46%45%46%
Scored1.281.551.04
Conceded2.302.052.54
BTTS50%59%42%
Clean Sheet17%14%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1GrobiņaGrobiņa2666
81%
2.5
7117+54
3.4
85%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.70.7
-
2Riga FC IIRiga FC II2561
76%
2.4
8215+67
3.9
84%
72%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.30.6
-
3SkansteSkanste2657
69%
2.2
5824+34
3.2
81%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.9
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2647
50%
1.8
6036+24
3.7
88%
69%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
5Saldus SS/LeevonSaldus SS/Leevon2640
46%
1.5
4028+12
2.6
77%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2637
42%
1.4
5842+16
3.8
81%
69%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.6
-
7Tukums IITukums II2633
38%
1.3
4154-13
3.7
81%
77%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.1
-
8BeitarBeitar2533
40%
1.3
4166-25
4.3
88%
76%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.6
-
9Valmiera IIValmiera II2628
27%
1.1
3040-10
2.7
69%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
10JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2527
28%
1.1
2129-8
2.0
56%
28%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
11Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2623
19%
0.9
3661-25
3.7
85%
58%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
12SmilteneSmiltene2622
23%
0.8
3167-36
3.8
92%
85%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
13Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga2218
23%
0.8
2754-27
3.7
82%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.5
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2510
8%
0.4
1578-63
3.7
84%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.1
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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