Dinamo Tirana are the clear favorites, with a 55% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw and 18% for Skenderbeu Korce. The model expects 2.5 goals on average, and the most likely total is 2, a 27% probability. The single score most likely to occur is 1-1, with a 12.7% chance. Dinamo’s home form shows they average 1.67 goals scored and concede 2.0 against similar opposition, while Skenderbeu, on the road, averages 0.8 scored and 0.6 conceded versus similar teams. The suggested picks are Under 3.5 (75.8%) and Over 1.5 (72.4%). The home win probability is 55%, the draw 27%, and the away win 18%. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 has a 75.8% edge, and Over 1.5 a 72.4% edge. Dinamo’s recent win and Skenderbeu’s recent defeat hint at a competitive encounter.
Results analysis
Dinamo Tirana’s win streak was halted as the match finished 1-1, a draw that surprised the pre-match favourite. The model had picked a home win with a 55% probability, but that call was wrong. The game’s final result was a stalemate, with neither side able to secure the victory the model expected. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 75.8% probability, while its Over 1.5 goal pick also succeeded at 72.4%. Dinamo’s recent form had been a win, yet they could not convert it into a win, and Skenderbeu’s recent defeat meant they were still looking to rebound. The outcome underscored the unpredictability of the league.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Tirana win✗ Miss
54.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce win✗ Miss
18.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Tirana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.36
0.93
3.00
0.86
1.71
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.50
1.25
1.67
2.00
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (6)
3.50
0.50
4.00
0.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skenderbeu Korce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.36
0.57
1.86
0.43
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.11
0.44
1.50
0.25
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.80
2.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.4%
Under 1.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.6%
Under 2.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.2%
Under 3.5
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.7%
1-0
12.3%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.4%
3-0
6.0%
0-1
5.9%
3-1
5.2%
Dinamo Tirana goals ↓
Skenderbeu Korce goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
5.9%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.0%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.5%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
3
6.0%
5.2%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.5%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Tirana goals (down), columns = Skenderbeu Korce goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Skenderbeu Korce
1.88
Dinamo Tirana
1.76
Flamurtari
1.68
Korabi Peshkopi
1.61
Tomori Berat
1.59
Apolonia Fier
1.44
Besa Kavajë
1.42
Luzi 2008
1.40
Burreli
1.26
Lushnja
1.23
Tërbuni Pukë
1.14
Oriku
1.08
Turbina Cërrik
0.92
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.65
Valbona
0.00
Pogradeci
0.00
Dinamo Tirana is 0.12 points worse than Skenderbeu Korce in terms of average points per game (1.76 vs 1.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tirana
1.80
Flamurtari
1.50
Skenderbeu Korce
1.42
Korabi Peshkopi
1.25
Besa Kavajë
1.23
Apolonia Fier
1.19
Luzi 2008
1.12
Lushnja
1.08
Tomori Berat
1.07
Pogradeci
1.00
Oriku
0.96
Burreli
0.89
Turbina Cërrik
0.85
Tërbuni Pukë
0.77
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.65
Valbona
0.00
Dinamo Tirana is 0.38 goals better than Skenderbeu Korce in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Skenderbeu Korce
0.50
Flamurtari
0.68
Korabi Peshkopi
0.89
Dinamo Tirana
0.92
Valbona
1.00
Besa Kavajë
1.00
Tomori Berat
1.04
Luzi 2008
1.04
Burreli
1.11
Apolonia Fier
1.15
Tërbuni Pukë
1.23
Oriku
1.32
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.58
Lushnja
1.62
Turbina Cërrik
1.77
Pogradeci
2.00
Dinamo Tirana is 0.42 goals worse than Skenderbeu Korce in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Tirana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.36
0.50
1.57
0.43
1.14
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.62
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.33
1.75
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
64% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skenderbeu Korce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.29
0.86
0.14
0.43
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.22
0.75
0.00
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
71% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Tirana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.43
0.43
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.62
0.33
1.00
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
0.17
2.25
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
64% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skenderbeu Korce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
0.29
1.00
0.29
0.43
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.22
0.75
0.25
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
1.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
71% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (27)
€7m
SK (27)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
Dinamo Tirana's squad is €3m more valuable than Skenderbeu Korce's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SK (9)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
Dinamo Tirana's attack is €1m more valuable than Skenderbeu Korce's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
SK (6)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
Dinamo Tirana and Skenderbeu Korce have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
LUS (10)
€0m
Dinamo Tirana and Skenderbeu Korce have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Albania: 1st Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →