Diosgyori VTK, coming off a defeat, faces Ajka, which is coming off a draw. The model predicts a home win, with a 46% probability of Diosgyori VTK taking the three points. The draw is 29% likely, and an away win for Ajka is 26% probable. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with 2 goals being the most likely total. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.7% probability.
At home, Diosgyori VTK has averaged 0.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded against weaker opponents. Away from home, Ajka has scored an average of 1 goal against stronger opponents, but conceded an average of 2.
The model selects Under 3.5 goals, with a 75.4% probability, and Over 1.5 goals, with a 72.8% probability. The home win percentage is 46%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 26%. The model's selections are Under 3.5 (75.4%), Over 1.5 (72.8%).
Results analysis
The match between Diosgyori VTK and Ajka ended in a 1-1 draw, a result that extends Diosgyori VTK's run of consecutive draws. This outcome was a surprise, as the pre-match favourite, Diosgyori VTK, did not come through. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as the actual result was a draw.
The model's selection, a home win, had a pre-match probability of 46%. Diosgyori VTK had a strong home form, having scored 0.5 goals on average and conceded 2.5 goals. Ajka, on the other hand, had a weaker away form, scoring 1.0 goal on average and conceding 2.0 goals.
The model's suggested picks included an Under 3.5 goal total, which hit with a probability of 75.4%, and an Over 1.5 goal total, which also hit with a probability of 72.9%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Diosgyori VTK win✗ Miss
45.9%
Avg Implied 54.3% · @ 1.65
Edge
-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.75
Unibet
1.73
Dafabet
1.68
William Hil
1.65
Bet365
1.65
Draw✓ Hit
28.6%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.47
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.61
Betfair
3.60
Betano
3.60
1xBet
3.55
Ajka win✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied 19.9% · @ 4.51
Edge
+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.93
Marathonbet
4.85
Betano
4.75
Dafabet
4.70
Pinnacle
4.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Diosgyori VTK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.93
1.23
1.69
1.29
2.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.37
1.85
1.33
1.75
1.40
1.93
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.27
0.94
1.44
0.83
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (27)
0.93
1.30
0.94
1.53
0.90
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Diosgyori VTK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.9%
@ 1.26+1.6%
Under 1.5
27.1%
@ 3.12-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.60
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Unibet
3.00
Betano
2.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.1%
@ 1.89-2.3%
Under 2.5
53.9%
@ 1.77+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.96
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Betano
1.91
Under
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.6%
@ 3.11-4.2%
Under 3.5
75.4%
@ 1.26+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.00
Under
Betano
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Unibet
1.24
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.2%
@ 1.80+1.3%
No
48.8%
@ 1.79-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
William Hil
1.75
No
William Hil
1.85
Betfair
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.80
Betano
1.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.6%@ 6.39+7.0%
1-0
10.7%@ 6.19+3.8%
0-0
9.3%@ 8.59+4.4%
2-1
9.1%@ 7.60+3.6%
2-0
8.8%@ 7.46+3.1%
0-1
7.2%@ 11.14+3.4%
1-2
6.5%@ 13.36+3.3%
2-2
4.8%@ 14.29+1.8%
Diosgyori VTK goals ↓
Ajka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
7.2%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.5%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.1%
4.8%
1.7%
0.4%
3
4.3%
4.5%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Diosgyori VTK goals (down), columns = Ajka goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Soroksar
2.67
Kazincbarcikai
2.20
Ajka
2.20
Kecskeméti TE
2.17
Tiszakecske FC
2.00
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.80
Karcag SE
1.67
Gyirmot SE
1.67
Szentlőrinc SE
1.40
Fehérvár FC
1.00
Szeged 2011
1.00
Diosgyori VTK
0.80
BVSC
0.80
Nagykanizsai ULE
0.50
Csakvar
0.50
Kozarmisleny FC
0.00
Diosgyori VTK is 1.40 points worse than Ajka in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 2.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Soroksar
2.83
Karcag SE
2.00
Kecskeméti TE
2.00
Tiszakecske FC
2.00
Gyirmot SE
1.83
Kazincbarcikai
1.80
Ajka
1.60
Fehérvár FC
1.50
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.40
Szentlőrinc SE
1.20
Diosgyori VTK
1.00
Csakvar
1.00
Nagykanizsai ULE
0.83
Szeged 2011
0.75
BVSC
0.60
Kozarmisleny FC
0.50
Diosgyori VTK is 0.60 goals worse than Ajka in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajka
0.60
Soroksar
0.67
Kazincbarcikai
0.80
Kecskeméti TE
1.00
Szeged 2011
1.00
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.00
Tiszakecske FC
1.17
BVSC
1.20
Szentlőrinc SE
1.20
Karcag SE
1.33
Fehérvár FC
1.50
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.67
Gyirmot SE
2.00
Kozarmisleny FC
2.50
Diosgyori VTK
2.60
Csakvar
2.67
Diosgyori VTK is 2.00 goals worse than Ajka in terms of goals conceded per game (2.60 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Diosgyori VTK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.46
0.77
0.76
0.76
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.85
0.50
0.83
0.80
0.87
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.57
0.39
0.56
0.25
0.58
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.33
0.56
0.35
0.59
0.30
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Diosgyori VTK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Diosgyori VTK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Diosgyori VTK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Diosgyori VTK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Diosgyori VTK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.17
0.77
0.92
0.53
1.35
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
0.70
1.00
0.83
0.92
0.60
1.07
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.56
0.89
0.58
0.42
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.74
0.59
0.94
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Diosgyori VTK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Diosgyori VTK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Diosgyori VTK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Diosgyori VTK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
75.4%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Unibet
1.24
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.9%
1.26
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.25
+1.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Diosgyori VTK · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Elton Acolatse38%
Lamin Colley33%
Tamás Galántai25%
Bence Babos19%
Milán Pető18%
Ivan Šaponjić15%
Milán Demeter14%
Aboubakar Keita13%
Yohan Croizet-Kollár10%
Ante Roguljić9%
Márk Tamás6%
Szilárd Bokros5%
Alex Vallejo5%
Ágoston Bényei5%
Anderson Esiti0%
Karlo Sentić0%
Máté Sajbán0%
Dániel Gera0%
Bence Bárdos0%
Gergő Holdampf0%
Ákos Kecskés0%
Lirim Kastrati0%
Márk Mucsányi0%
Bogdán Bánhegyi0%
Gábor Jurek0%
Peter Ambrose0%
Bence Szakos0%
Miron Mucsányi0%
Nazar Kovalenko0%
Bence Komlósi0%
Milán Demeter0%
Bence Szakos0%
Dániel Gera0%
Máté Macsó0%
Csaba Szatmári0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Miron Mucsányi60%
Anderson Esiti36%
Lirim Kastrati33%
Bence Bárdos31%
Ivan Šaponjić31%
Márk Mucsányi30%
Gergő Holdampf29%
Ákos Kecskés25%
Lamin Colley25%
Elton Acolatse23%
Ágoston Bényei20%
Szilárd Bokros16%
Milán Demeter14%
Karlo Sentić14%
Aboubakar Keita13%
Márk Tamás12%
Bence Babos12%
Gábor Jurek11%
Alex Vallejo10%
Ante Roguljić9%
Milán Pető9%
Bence Szakos8%
Csaba Szatmári6%
Máté Sajbán5%
Dániel Gera0%
Yohan Croizet-Kollár0%
Bogdán Bánhegyi0%
Peter Ambrose0%
Bence Szakos0%
Nazar Kovalenko0%
Bence Komlósi0%
Milán Demeter0%
Dániel Gera0%
Máté Macsó0%
Tamás Galántai0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nazar Kovalenko33%
Miron Mucsányi20%
Dániel Gera17%
Elton Acolatse15%
Szilárd Bokros11%
Máté Sajbán10%
Yohan Croizet-Kollár10%
Ante Roguljić9%
Lamin Colley8%
Ivan Šaponjić8%
Anderson Esiti0%
Aboubakar Keita0%
Karlo Sentić0%
Bence Bárdos0%
Márk Tamás0%
Gergő Holdampf0%
Alex Vallejo0%
Ákos Kecskés0%
Lirim Kastrati0%
Ágoston Bényei0%
Márk Mucsányi0%
Bogdán Bánhegyi0%
Gábor Jurek0%
Peter Ambrose0%
Bence Babos0%
Milán Pető0%
Milán Demeter0%
Bence Szakos0%
Bence Komlósi0%
Milán Demeter0%
Bence Szakos0%
Dániel Gera0%
Máté Macsó0%
Csaba Szatmári0%
Tamás Galántai0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lamin Colley25%
Elton Acolatse23%
Aboubakar Keita13%
Gábor Jurek11%
Milán Pető9%
Ivan Šaponjić8%
Anderson Esiti0%
Karlo Sentić0%
Máté Sajbán0%
Szilárd Bokros0%
Dániel Gera0%
Bence Bárdos0%
Márk Tamás0%
Gergő Holdampf0%
Alex Vallejo0%
Ákos Kecskés0%
Yohan Croizet-Kollár0%
Ante Roguljić0%
Lirim Kastrati0%
Ágoston Bényei0%
Márk Mucsányi0%
Bogdán Bánhegyi0%
Peter Ambrose0%
Bence Babos0%
Milán Demeter0%
Bence Szakos0%
Miron Mucsányi0%
Nazar Kovalenko0%
Bence Komlósi0%
Milán Demeter0%
Bence Szakos0%
Dániel Gera0%
Máté Macsó0%
Csaba Szatmári0%
Tamás Galántai0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KT (22)
€3m
DV (18)
€3m
FF (22)
€2m
KAZ (19)
€2m
S2 (23)
€2m
MEZ (17)
€2m
BVS (17)
€2m
AJK (20)
€2m
KF (19)
€2m
TF (18)
€1m
SS (19)
€1m
SOR (17)
€1m
KS (16)
€1m
CSA (11)
€1m
Diosgyori VTK's squad is €1m more valuable than Ajka's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KT (9)
€1m
FF (10)
€1m
MEZ (7)
€1m
DV (5)
€1m
SOR (7)
€1m
TF (8)
€1m
KAZ (7)
€1m
SS (7)
€1m
AJK (5)
€1m
KS (7)
€0m
BVS (5)
€0m
KF (6)
€0m
S2 (6)
€0m
CSA (3)
€0m
Diosgyori VTK and Ajka have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DV (4)
€1m
BVS (5)
€1m
KAZ (4)
€0m
S2 (5)
€0m
KT (2)
€0m
TF (5)
€0m
FF (3)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
KF (4)
€0m
MEZ (1)
€0m
SOR (4)
€0m
AJK (2)
€0m
KS (1)
€0m
Diosgyori VTK and Ajka have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DV (9)
€1m
KT (11)
€1m
KAZ (8)
€1m
S2 (12)
€1m
FF (9)
€1m
MEZ (9)
€1m
AJK (13)
€1m
KF (9)
€1m
BVS (7)
€1m
SS (8)
€0m
SOR (6)
€0m
KS (8)
€0m
TF (5)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
Diosgyori VTK and Ajka have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Hungary: NB II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB II stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Soroksar
Kecskeméti TE
Tiszakecske FC
Kazincbarcikai
Karcag SE
Gyirmot SE
Mezokovesd-zsory
Szentlőrinc SE
Fehérvár FC
Szeged 2011
BVSC
Nagykanizsai ULE
Csakvar
Kozarmisleny FC