Dobrudzha are tipped to win, with a 57 % chance of triumph, a 25 % chance of a draw and an 18 % chance of Pirin Blagoevgrad taking the win. The model’s favourite result is a home win, and the expected total goals hover around 2.7, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 26 % of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 12.1 % chance that the match ends in a stalemate.
At home Dobrudzha average 1.0 goal scored and 1.1 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Pirin Blagoevgrad, on the road, averages 1.73 goals scored and 1.82 conceded. The recent form suggests Dobrudzha are still finding their rhythm after three straight defeats, whereas Pirin Blagoevgrad have suffered five consecutive losses, their last outing a 0-7 defeat.
The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls (86.3 %), Over 2.5 cards (82.9 %), Over 1.5 (75.9 %) which has already hit, Over 21.5 fouls (74.7 %), Under 3.5 (71.8 %) which has missed, and Under 11.5 corners (71.7 %).
Results analysis
Dobrudzha’s recent form, a win after three straight defeats, set the stage for a decisive home performance, while Pirin Blagoevgrad struggled with five consecutive losses. The match finished 5-1, a clear home win that matched the model’s favourite, which had a 57 % probability. The model’s prediction was correct. The expected total of 2.7 goals proved far too low; the final tally of six goals exceeded the model’s most likely total of two. The model’s Over 1.5 selection hit, with a 75.9 % chance, whereas the Under 3.5 pick missed, having a 71.8 % probability. All figures are reported exactly as provided.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dobrudzha win✓ Hit
57.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad win✗ Miss
17.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dobrudzha
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.33
0.87
1.20
0.93
1.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.00
0.67
1.67
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (21)
0.81
1.24
1.00
1.10
0.64
1.36
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
3.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Pirin Blagoevgrad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.37
1.07
0.86
1.38
1.81
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.40
0.60
1.00
0.60
1.80
vs Similar (20)
1.55
1.35
1.33
0.78
1.73
1.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dobrudzha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.9%
Under 1.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.2%
Under 2.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.2%
Under 3.5
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-0
11.1%
2-0
10.9%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.9%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
5.8%
0-1
5.1%
Dobrudzha goals ↓
Pirin Blagoevgrad goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
5.1%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
4.9%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
6.5%
5.8%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.9%
2.6%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dobrudzha goals (down), columns = Pirin Blagoevgrad goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Yantra 2019
2.00
Fratria
1.97
Vihren
1.81
CSKA Sofia II
1.72
Beroe
1.71
Dobrudzha
1.61
Montana
1.55
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.44
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.38
Nesebar
1.36
Rilski Sportist
1.36
Ludogorets II
1.28
Marek
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.25
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.09
Sportist Svoge
1.06
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
Dobrudzha is 0.43 points better than Pirin Blagoevgrad in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fratria
1.91
Vihren
1.84
CSKA Sofia II
1.78
Beroe
1.57
Dobrudzha
1.49
Montana
1.43
Yantra 2019
1.41
Ludogorets II
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.28
Nesebar
1.26
Rilski Sportist
1.26
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.22
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.16
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
Sportist Svoge
0.88
Marek
0.84
Dobrudzha is 0.30 goals better than Pirin Blagoevgrad in terms of goals scored per game (1.49 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Yantra 2019
0.75
Fratria
0.91
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Beroe
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.06
Vihren
1.06
Marek
1.09
Montana
1.11
Nesebar
1.26
Rilski Sportist
1.26
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.28
Ludogorets II
1.34
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.34
Spartak Pleven
1.41
Sportist Svoge
1.50
Hebar 1918
1.59
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.62
Dobrudzha is 0.22 goals better than Pirin Blagoevgrad in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dobrudzha
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.70
0.33
0.60
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.27
0.73
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.75
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Pirin Blagoevgrad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.64
0.07
0.69
0.94
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.20
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.40
0.78
0.00
0.82
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dobrudzha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dobrudzha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dobrudzha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dobrudzha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dobrudzha
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.53
0.60
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.62
0.50
0.60
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Pirin Blagoevgrad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.43
0.79
0.69
0.88
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.60
0.20
0.80
0.20
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.95
0.56
0.78
0.91
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dobrudzha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dobrudzha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dobrudzha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dobrudzha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BER (37)
€11m
CSI (46)
€9m
LI (41)
€9m
DOB (38)
€8m
MON (42)
€6m
FRA (39)
€4m
H1 (46)
€4m
Y2 (30)
€4m
VIH (39)
€3m
PB (39)
€3m
EVT (38)
€3m
C1B (33)
€3m
MAR (39)
€2m
LGO (37)
€2m
SP (34)
€2m
SS (41)
€2m
Dobrudzha's squad is €5m more valuable than Pirin Blagoevgrad's (€8m vs €3m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →