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Dobrudzha vs Pirin Blagoevgrad Result & Analysis

Date: 28/07/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 5-1
Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
Vs
57%
25%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Bulgaria: Second League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Dobrudzha are tipped to win, with a 57 % chance of triumph, a 25 % chance of a draw and an 18 % chance of Pirin Blagoevgrad taking the win. The model’s favourite result is a home win, and the expected total goals hover around 2.7, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 26 % of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 12.1 % chance that the match ends in a stalemate.

At home Dobrudzha average 1.0 goal scored and 1.1 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Pirin Blagoevgrad, on the road, averages 1.73 goals scored and 1.82 conceded. The recent form suggests Dobrudzha are still finding their rhythm after three straight defeats, whereas Pirin Blagoevgrad have suffered five consecutive losses, their last outing a 0-7 defeat.

The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls (86.3 %), Over 2.5 cards (82.9 %), Over 1.5 (75.9 %) which has already hit, Over 21.5 fouls (74.7 %), Under 3.5 (71.8 %) which has missed, and Under 11.5 corners (71.7 %).

Results analysis

Dobrudzha’s recent form, a win after three straight defeats, set the stage for a decisive home performance, while Pirin Blagoevgrad struggled with five consecutive losses. The match finished 5-1, a clear home win that matched the model’s favourite, which had a 57 % probability. The model’s prediction was correct. The expected total of 2.7 goals proved far too low; the final tally of six goals exceeded the model’s most likely total of two. The model’s Over 1.5 selection hit, with a 75.9 % chance, whereas the Under 3.5 pick missed, having a 71.8 % probability. All figures are reported exactly as provided.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dobrudzha win✓ Hit
57.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad win✗ Miss
17.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DobrudzhaDobrudzha

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D01L03L01L03L11D01L20W12L11DH·LEV05/04A·SPA10/04H·BOT14/04A·MON27/04H·LOK01/05A·SPA06/05H·BER10/05A·SLA13/05H·BOT18/05A·SEP22/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.330.871.200.931.47
vs Stronger (5)0.402.000.671.670.002.50
vs Similar (21)0.811.241.001.100.641.36
vs Weaker (4)2.001.000.501.003.501.00
Clean sheet %27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Pirin Blagoevgrad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Pirin BlagoevgradPirin Blagoevgrad

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W00D02L22D23L00D02L41W03LA·DUN21/03H·BEL29/03H·LUD04/04A·CHE09/04H·HEB16/04A·ETA25/04H·MAR02/05A·SPO11/05H·SEV15/05A·FRA23/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.371.070.861.381.81
vs Stronger (10)0.601.400.601.000.601.80
vs Similar (20)1.551.351.330.781.731.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dobrudzha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.9%
Under 1.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.2%
Under 2.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.2%
Under 3.5
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-0
11.1%
2-0
10.9%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.9%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
5.8%
0-1
5.1%
Dobrudzha goals ↓
Pirin Blagoevgrad goals →
01234
07.9%5.1%2.8%0.8%0.2%
111%12%4.9%1.5%0.3%
211%9.8%4.4%1.3%0.3%
36.5%5.8%2.6%0.8%0.2%
42.9%2.6%1.2%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dobrudzha goals (down), columns = Pirin Blagoevgrad goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Yantra 2019
2.00
Fratria
1.97
Vihren
1.81
CSKA Sofia II
1.72
Beroe
1.71
Dobrudzha
1.61
Montana
1.55
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.44
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.38
Nesebar
1.36
Rilski Sportist
1.36
Ludogorets II
1.28
Marek
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.25
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.09
Sportist Svoge
1.06
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
Dobrudzha is 0.43 points better than Pirin Blagoevgrad in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.19).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Fratria
1.91
Vihren
1.84
CSKA Sofia II
1.78
Beroe
1.57
Dobrudzha
1.49
Montana
1.43
Yantra 2019
1.41
Ludogorets II
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.28
Nesebar
1.26
Rilski Sportist
1.26
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.22
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.16
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
Sportist Svoge
0.88
Marek
0.84
Dobrudzha is 0.30 goals better than Pirin Blagoevgrad in terms of goals scored per game (1.49 vs 1.19).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Yantra 2019
0.75
Fratria
0.91
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Beroe
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.06
Vihren
1.06
Marek
1.09
Montana
1.11
Nesebar
1.26
Rilski Sportist
1.26
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.28
Ludogorets II
1.34
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.34
Spartak Pleven
1.41
Sportist Svoge
1.50
Hebar 1918
1.59
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.62
Dobrudzha is 0.22 goals better than Pirin Blagoevgrad in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DobrudzhaDobrudzha

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D01L02L01L00D10W02L01LH·LEV05/04A·SPA10/04H·BOT14/04A·MON27/04H·LOK01/05A·SPA06/05H·BER10/05A·SLA13/05H·BOT18/05A·SEP22/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.700.330.600.330.80
vs Stronger (5)0.001.000.000.670.001.50
vs Similar (21)0.380.620.500.500.270.73
vs Weaker (4)0.500.750.001.001.000.50
Clean sheet %43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Pirin Blagoevgrad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Pirin BlagoevgradPirin Blagoevgrad

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D01L10W12L00D00D20W03LA·DUN21/03H·BEL29/03H·LUD04/04A·CHE09/04H·HEB16/04A·ETA25/04H·MAR02/05A·SPO11/05H·SEV15/05A·FRA23/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.530.640.070.690.94
vs Stronger (10)0.400.800.400.200.401.40
vs Similar (20)0.800.400.780.000.820.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dobrudzha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dobrudzha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dobrudzha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dobrudzha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DobrudzhaDobrudzha

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D00D03L00D01L10W01L10W10W10WH·LEV05/04A·SPA10/04H·BOT14/04A·MON27/04H·LOK01/05A·SPA06/05H·BER10/05A·SLA13/05H·BOT18/05A·SEP22/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.630.530.600.600.67
vs Stronger (5)0.401.000.671.000.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.430.620.500.600.360.64
vs Weaker (4)1.500.250.500.002.500.50
Clean sheet %53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Pirin Blagoevgrad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Pirin BlagoevgradPirin Blagoevgrad

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D01L12L11D00D02L21W00DA·DUN21/03H·BEL29/03H·LUD04/04A·CHE09/04H·HEB16/04A·ETA25/04H·MAR02/05A·SPO11/05H·SEV15/05A·FRA23/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.830.430.790.690.88
vs Stronger (10)0.200.600.200.800.200.40
vs Similar (20)0.750.950.560.780.911.09
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dobrudzha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dobrudzha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dobrudzha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dobrudzha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls86.3%--------
Over 2.5 cards82.9%--------
Over 1.575.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls74.7%--------
Under 3.571.8%-------✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners71.7%--------

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BER (37)
€11m
CSI (46)
€9m
LI (41)
€9m
DOB (38)
€8m
MON (42)
€6m
FRA (39)
€4m
H1 (46)
€4m
Y2 (30)
€4m
VIH (39)
€3m
PB (39)
€3m
EVT (38)
€3m
C1B (33)
€3m
MAR (39)
€2m
LGO (37)
€2m
SP (34)
€2m
SS (41)
€2m
Dobrudzha's squad is €5m more valuable than Pirin Blagoevgrad's (€8m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BER (0)
€0m
C1B (0)
€0m
CSI (0)
€0m
DOB (0)
€0m
EVT (0)
€0m
FRA (0)
€0m
H1 (0)
€0m
LGO (0)
€0m
LI (0)
€0m
MAR (0)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
PB (0)
€0m
SP (0)
€0m
SS (0)
€0m
VIH (0)
€0m
Y2 (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BER (0)
€0m
C1B (0)
€0m
CSI (0)
€0m
DOB (0)
€0m
EVT (0)
€0m
FRA (0)
€0m
H1 (0)
€0m
LGO (0)
€0m
LI (0)
€0m
MAR (0)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
PB (0)
€0m
SP (0)
€0m
SS (0)
€0m
VIH (0)
€0m
Y2 (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BER (0)
€0m
C1B (0)
€0m
CSI (0)
€0m
DOB (0)
€0m
EVT (0)
€0m
FRA (0)
€0m
H1 (0)
€0m
LGO (0)
€0m
LI (0)
€0m
MAR (0)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
PB (0)
€0m
SP (0)
€0m
SS (0)
€0m
VIH (0)
€0m
Y2 (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
DOB wins
1
Draws
0
PB wins

Head-to-head

Dobrudzha vs Pirin Blagoevgrad · H/A from DOB
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/25HDOB Vs Pirin Blagoevgrad2-1
22/11/24APirin Blagoevgrad Vs DOB0-0

DobrudzhaDobrudzha

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/05/26ASeptemvri Sofia Vs DOB1-1
18/05/26HDOB Vs Botev Vratsa1-2
13/05/26ASlavia Sofia Vs DOB0-2
10/05/26HDOB Vs Beroe0-1
06/05/26ASpartak Varna Vs DOB1-1
01/05/26HDOB Vs Lokomotiv Sofia0-3
27/04/26AMontana Vs DOB1-0
14/04/26HDOB Vs Botev Plovdiv0-3
10/04/26ASpartak Varna Vs DOB1-0
05/04/26HDOB Vs Levski Sofia2-2

Pirin BlagoevgradPirin Blagoevgrad

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/26AFratria Vs PB3-0
15/05/26HPB Vs Sevlievo4-1
11/05/26ASportist Svoge Vs PB2-0
02/05/26HPB Vs Marek0-0
25/04/26AEtar Veliko Tarnovo Vs PB3-2
16/04/26HPB Vs Hebar 19182-2
09/04/26AChernomorets 1919 Burgas Vs PB2-0
04/04/26HPB Vs Ludogorets II0-0
29/03/26HPB Vs Belasitsa1-0
21/03/26ADunav Ruse Vs PB0-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
Bulgaria: Second League
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLD1.26
HomeDLLLL1.72
AwayLLDWD0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%52%20%
AVG goals2.462.482.44
Over 1.5 %74%80%68%
Over 2.5 %46%52%40%
Over 3.5 %18%16%20%
Scored1.201.361.04
Conceded1.261.121.40
BTTS44%44%44%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners9.259.778.64
Cards5.385.695.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Bulgaria: Second League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWL1.26
HomeWDDDW1.58
AwayDLLLL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%42%27%
AVG goals2.502.332.65
Over 1.5 %66%54%77%
Over 2.5 %50%42%58%
Over 3.5 %26%33%19%
Scored1.181.251.12
Conceded1.321.081.54
BTTS48%46%50%
Clean Sheet34%42%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Etar Veliko TarnovoEtar Veliko Tarnovo510
60%
2.0
105+5
3.0
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0002.01.0
-
2CSKA Sofia IICSKA Sofia II410
75%
2.5
94+5
3.2
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
0002.21.0
-
3FratriaFratria510
60%
2.0
73+4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.40.6
-
4NesebarNesebar59
60%
1.8
128+4
4.0
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.6
-
5VihrenVihren59
40%
1.8
96+3
3.0
100%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.81.2
-
6Yantra 2019Yantra 201959
60%
1.8
66+0
2.4
60%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.21.2
-
7Spartak PlevenSpartak Pleven47
50%
1.8
64+2
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.51.0
-
8MontanaMontana57
40%
1.4
98+1
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
0001.81.6
-
9Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaLokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa57
40%
1.4
56-1
2.2
80%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.01.2
-
10MarekMarek56
40%
1.2
66+0
2.4
40%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.21.2
-
11BeroeBeroe46
50%
1.5
44+0
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
0001.01.0
-
12Hebar 1918Hebar 191856
40%
1.2
1011-1
4.2
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0002.02.2
-
13Ludogorets IILudogorets II46
50%
1.5
35-2
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
0000.81.2
-
14Rilski SportistRilski Sportist55
20%
1.0
56-1
2.2
60%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
15Chernomorets 1919 BurgasChernomorets 1919 Burgas55
20%
1.0
34-1
1.4
40%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0000.60.8
-
16Sportist SvogeSportist Svoge55
20%
1.0
34-1
1.4
20%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0000.60.8
-
17DobrudzhaDobrudzha54
20%
0.8
78-1
3.0
60%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
0001.41.6
-
18Pirin BlagoevgradPirin Blagoevgrad50
0%
0.0
319-16
4.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0000.63.8
-
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →

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