Dobrudzha is the clear favourite to win at home, with the model predicting a home win with a 70% probability. This is largely due to the team's strong recent form at home, having scored an average of 1.6 goals per match against opponents of similar strength. In their last match against Sportist Svoge, the two teams drew 0-0, and Dobrudzha will look to capitalize on their home advantage.
The model predicts a 2-0 scoreline with a 13.8% probability, which is the most likely correct score. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, indicating a relatively low-scoring match.
Dobrudzha has a strong home scoring record, averaging 1.6 goals per match, while conceding an average of 1.3 goals. In contrast, Sportist Svoge has struggled on the road, scoring an average of 1.0 goal per match against opponents of similar strength, while conceding an average of 1.0 goal.
The model's selection is the Home win, with a 70% probability. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 with a 77.4% probability and an edge of 6%. The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 70%, 20%, and 10% respectively.
In a stunning result, Dobrudzha's recent form storyline was disrupted as they failed to build on their previous draw against Sportist Svoge, instead sharing the spoils in a 0-0 draw. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, as the pre-match favourite, Dobrudzha, did not come through. The model had predicted a 70% chance of Dobrudzha winning. The suggested picks did not come to fruition, with Over 1.5 goals missing the mark at 77.4%.
Dobrudzha| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 1.33 | 1.12 | 1.19 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.40 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.05 | 1.24 | 1.36 | 1.09 | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 3.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
Sportist Svoge| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 1.60 | 0.93 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.91 | 2.55 | 1.17 | 1.67 | 0.60 | 3.60 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.00 | 1.05 | 0.78 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
| Sportist Svoge goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.1% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 14% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 9.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
Dobrudzha| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.70 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.36 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.48 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.45 | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Sportist Svoge| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.93 | 0.40 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.45 | 1.36 | 0.50 | 1.17 | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.42 | 0.47 | 0.44 | 0.78 | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Dobrudzha| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.57 | 0.62 | 0.73 | 0.64 | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.50 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Sportist Svoge| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.45 | 1.18 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.33 | 0.44 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 77.4% | 1.27 | 1.33 | 1.29 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | +5.9% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/25 | A | 0-3 | |
| 30/11/24 | H | 4-0 | |
| 02/03/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 20/08/23 | A | 2-2 | |
| 04/06/23 | A | 1-0 | |
| 13/11/22 | H | 6-2 |
Dobrudzha| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 22/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 06/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 27/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 1-0 |
Sportist Svoge| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 15/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 11/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 16/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 29/03/26 | H | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia II | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 3.2 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Fratria | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | - |
| 4 | Nesebar | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 4.0 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 5 | Vihren | 5 | 9 | 40% | 1.8 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | Yantra 2019 | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 2.4 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Spartak Pleven | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Montana | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 9 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 10 | Marek | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 2.4 | 40% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 11 | Beroe | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 12 | Hebar 1918 | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 13 | Ludogorets II | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 14 | Rilski Sportist | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 15 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1.4 | 40% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1.4 | 20% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3.0 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 3 | 19 | -16 | 4.4 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.8 | - |