Barnsley is expected to emerge victorious in this England: League One match. The away side's recent form has seen two consecutive defeats, but they have shown resilience in their away performances, scoring an average of 1.17 goals and conceding 1.58 goals against similar opponents.
The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with 2 goals being the most likely outcome. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a probability of 13%.
Doncaster's home form has been inconsistent, scoring 1.25 goals and conceding 1.58 goals on average against similar opponents. Barnsley, on the other hand, has struggled to find the back of the net in their away games, with an average of 1.17 goals scored.
The model's selection is an Away win, with a probability of 44%. The model's selections include an Over 1.5 goals match, occurring with a probability of 77.5%, and Home or Away, occurring with a probability of 72.5%. The home win percentage is 28%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 44%.
Results analysis
A 0-0 stalemate surprised the pundits, as the pre-match favourite - the model’s pick of an away win with a 42 % probability - failed to materialise. The match ended in a draw, the final score 0-0, matching the teams’ recent form notes that both were coming off a draw. The model’s selection was wrong. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.1 %; Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.0 %; Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.6 %; Under 6.5 hit at 97.5 %; Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.8 %; Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.6 %; Home under 3.5 goals hit at 95.2 %; and Away under 3.5 goals hit at 93.7 %. All probabilities were expressed as percentages, and no other side was called the favourite.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Doncaster win✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied 46.8% · @ 1.99
Edge
-17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
888Sport
2.00
Betano
2.00
Draw✓ Hit
28.0%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.56
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.91
1xBet
3.72
Marathonbet
3.72
Betfair
3.70
Dafabet
3.65
Barnsley win✗ Miss
42.2%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.45
Edge
+15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.70
10Bet
3.60
Betano
3.55
Unibet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Doncaster
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.63
1.21
1.64
1.25
1.62
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
2.50
1.00
2.80
1.40
2.20
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.20
1.33
1.00
1.18
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnsley
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.63
1.25
1.56
1.29
1.71
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
-
-
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (28)
1.21
1.50
1.13
1.47
1.31
1.54
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.1%
@ 1.22-0.3%
Under 1.5
23.9%
@ 3.96+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.24
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.33
Pinnacle
4.23
Bet365
4.00
888Sport
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.3%
@ 1.71-4.5%
Under 2.5
49.7%
@ 2.08+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
Bet365
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Under
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.13
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.3%
@ 2.72-5.8%
Under 3.5
71.7%
@ 1.41+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.85
10Bet
2.80
888Sport
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Under
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Betfair
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.4%
@ 1.60-2.4%
No
44.6%
@ 2.20+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
888Sport
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Superbet
1.61
No
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.22
10Bet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
BetVictor
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 6.66+6.7%
1-2
9.0%@ 10.94+4.9%
0-1
8.9%@ 11.44+4.9%
0-0 ✓
8.0%@ 11.86+4.3%
0-2
7.5%@ 18.63+5.1%
2-1
7.3%@ 7.73+1.6%
1-0
7.0%@ 7.97+1.4%
2-2
5.4%@ 11.78+1.6%
Doncaster goals ↓
Barnsley goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
8.9%
7.5%
3.7%
1.4%
1
7.0%
13%
9.0%
4.4%
1.6%
2
5.0%
7.3%
5.4%
2.7%
1.0%
3
2.0%
3.0%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.6%
0.9%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Doncaster goals (down), columns = Barnsley goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Doncaster is 0.02 points better than Barnsley in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Doncaster is 0.39 goals worse than Barnsley in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Doncaster is 0.09 goals better than Barnsley in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Doncaster is 1.8 percentage points worse than Barnsley in terms of average possession (50% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Doncaster
For 3.4 · Against 5.3 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 11.1 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barnsley
For 5.6 · Against 6.7 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 9.5 · Total 20.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Doncaster
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.7
10.3
3.8
3.8
3.8
22.5
23.0
22.1
vs Stronger (13)
10.5
11.7
9.6
4.3
4.3
4.3
22.5
23.7
21.6
vs Similar (37)
9.8
8.9
10.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
22.5
22.8
22.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
41%
36%
44%
50%
55%
46%
55%
55%
56%
% under line
59%
64%
56%
50%
45%
54%
45%
45%
44%
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnsley
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.7
11.3
3.3
3.7
2.9
20.6
22.1
19.0
vs Stronger (2)
12.0
8.0
16.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
21.5
30.0
13.0
vs Similar (45)
11.0
10.6
11.3
3.5
4.0
3.0
20.5
21.6
19.3
vs Weaker (3)
10.5
15.0
6.0
1.7
1.0
3.0
22.5
25.0
20.0
% over line
55%
56%
54%
46%
62%
29%
43%
60%
25%
% under line
45%
44%
46%
54%
38%
71%
57%
40%
75%
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Plymouth
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Leicester
11.0
Barnsley
10.9
Wigan
10.7
Blackpool
10.5
Huddersfield
10.5
Bromley
10.5
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Luton
10.3
Burton
10.3
Wycombe
10.2
Peterboro
10.2
Bradford
10.2
Doncaster
10.0
Stockport
9.8
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.7
Mansfield
9.7
Reading
9.3
Notts County
9.3
Cambridge
9.2
Milton Keynes Dons
9.1
Stevenage
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.9
Notts County
4.3
Peterboro
4.3
Huddersfield
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Doncaster
3.9
Stevenage
3.8
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Blackpool
3.7
Leicester
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Luton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Burton
3.6
Barnsley
3.5
Oxford
3.4
Stockport
3.3
AFC Wimbledon
3.1
Wigan
3.1
Cambridge
3.1
Sheffield Weds
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bradford
24.6
Notts County
24.4
Plymouth
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Huddersfield
24.3
Peterboro
23.9
Luton
23.8
Milton Keynes Dons
23.6
Blackpool
23.5
Wigan
23.3
Leyton Orient
23.2
AFC Wimbledon
23.0
Doncaster
22.6
Cambridge
22.6
Reading
22.6
Mansfield
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Sheffield Weds
22.0
Burton
21.9
Oxford
21.9
Bromley
21.9
Wycombe
21.4
Stockport
21.0
Barnsley
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.6%
@ 1.61+1.1%
Under 9.5
41.4%
@ 2.18-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.58
Under
Betano
2.32
Pinnacle
2.30
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.5%
Under 3.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
51.3%
Under 21.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Doncaster or Draw✓ Hit
60.9%
Avg Implied 73.2% · @ 1.27
Edge
-12.3%
30%
28%
42%
covers Doncaster + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.32
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Doncaster or Barnsley✗ Miss
72.5%
Avg Implied 74.2% · @ 1.26
Edge
-1.7%
30%
28%
42%
covers Doncaster + Barnsley
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Draw or Barnsley✓ Hit
66.6%
Avg Implied 52.6% · @ 1.78
Edge
+14.0%
30%
28%
42%
covers Draw + Barnsley
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.83
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Doncaster over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
74.1%
@ 1.16-6.1%
Under
25.9%
@ 4.70+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.75
BetVictor
4.60
888Sport
4.60
Doncaster over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
39.1%
@ 1.85-11.2%
Under
60.9%
@ 1.87+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Under
Betfair
1.95
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.88
Doncaster over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.5%
@ 3.69-9.8%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.25+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.83
BetVictor
3.80
Superbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
888Sport
3.70
Under
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Doncaster over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 8.12-6.7%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.06+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
888Sport
8.50
Superbet
8.20
Betfair
8.00
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Barnsley over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
77.1%
@ 1.34+7.9%
Under
22.9%
@ 3.01-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.12
Superbet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Betano
3.00
Barnsley over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
43.4%
@ 2.68+8.7%
Under
56.6%
@ 1.42-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.71
1xBet
2.71
Under
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Superbet
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Barnsley over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.5%
@ 6.62+4.5%
Under
81.5%
@ 1.08-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
888Sport
7.00
1xBet
6.80
Marathonbet
6.80
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
888Sport
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
Barnsley over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.3%
@ 17.19+0.7%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.01-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
21.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Doncaster, so a minus line means Doncaster give that many goals of a start and Barnsley receive them. At -1, Doncaster must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Doncaster win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Doncaster)Actual: Barnsley
Doncaster -2
5.5%
@ 7.22-6.9%
Draw -2
10.0%
@ 5.48-6.3%
Barnsley +2
84.5%
@ 1.26+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Draw
Marathonbet
5.65
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.45
Away
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Handicap -1 (Doncaster)Actual: Barnsley
Doncaster -1
15.5%
@ 3.45-10.5%
Draw -1
17.9%
@ 3.75-6.0%
Barnsley +1
66.6%
@ 1.79+16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.35
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
10Bet
3.60
Away
Betfair
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.76
Handicap +1 (Doncaster)Actual: Doncaster
Doncaster +1
60.9%
@ 1.27-9.6%
Draw +1
19.7%
@ 5.17+2.4%
Barnsley -1
19.4%
@ 7.38+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Draw
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
Superbet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Away
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
Unibet
7.00
Handicap +2 (Doncaster)Actual: Doncaster
Doncaster +2
80.6%
@ 1.07-5.5%
Draw +2
12.0%
@ 10.23+3.0%
Barnsley -2
7.4%
@ 18.67+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Superbet
8.70
Away
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
20.00
Superbet
15.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Doncaster
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.57
0.71
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.20
0.20
1.60
0.80
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.35
0.78
0.22
0.18
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnsley
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.62
0.69
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.54
0.68
0.53
0.60
0.54
0.77
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
69.2%
@ 1.32-1.4%
Under 0.5
30.8%
@ 3.18+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Under
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
William Hil
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.6%
@ 2.48-3.9%
Under 1.5
66.4%
@ 1.49+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.60
Betano
2.57
Bet365
2.50
William Hil
2.50
Marathonbet
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.1%
@ 6.09-3.1%
Under 2.5
87.9%
@ 1.10+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
William Hil
5.80
Marathonbet
5.80
Under
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Doncaster over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.3%
@ 1.77-6.3%
Under
53.7%
@ 1.96+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.79
Superbet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
Unibet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Doncaster over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 4.87-6.8%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.14+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Betano
4.85
Superbet
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Doncaster over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 12.58-5.1%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Barnsley over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.6%
@ 2.22+0.9%
Under
57.4%
@ 1.59-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Under
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
Barnsley over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 7.34-1.9%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.06+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.90
Superbet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Barnsley over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 27.00-1.6%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
29.00
Superbet
25.00
Under
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Doncaster
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.00
0.64
0.93
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.30
0.80
1.20
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.85
0.56
0.78
1.00
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnsley
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.62
0.88
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.82
0.60
0.87
0.77
0.77
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
77.7%
Under 0.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.0%
Under 1.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.9%
Under 2.5
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Doncaster over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.1%
Under
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnsley over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.4%
Under
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnsley over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnsley over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
1.06
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.7%
1.01
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Bet365
1.05
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.9%
1.10
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.08
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
84.5%
1.25
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+9.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
84.5%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+13.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.4%
1.15
Betfair
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
888Sport
1.15
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
81.5%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
888Sport
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
-4.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
80.6%
1.07
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-
-
-5.5%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
77.1%
1.34
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
+7.9%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
76.1%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.24
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.22
-0.3%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
74.1%
1.16
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
-6.1%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
72.5%
1.26
William Hil
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
-1.7%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.7%
1.41
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Betfair
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.6%
1.33
Unibet
1.40
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
+1.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Doncaster
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Isaac Hutchinson40%
J. Senior20%
A. May20%
Owen Bailey20%
Neill Byrne0%
Robbie Gotts0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Jamie Sterry0%
George Broadbent0%
J. McGrath0%
S. Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
Bayley McCann0%
J. Thomas0%
Leon Ayinde0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Senior40%
Robbie Gotts25%
George Broadbent25%
J. Thomas25%
Isaac Hutchinson20%
Owen Bailey20%
J. McGrath20%
Neill Byrne0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
A. May0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Jamie Sterry0%
S. Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
Bayley McCann0%
Leon Ayinde0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bayley McCann33%
J. Senior20%
J. McGrath20%
Neill Byrne0%
Robbie Gotts0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
A. May0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Isaac Hutchinson0%
Jamie Sterry0%
Owen Bailey0%
George Broadbent0%
S. Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
J. Thomas0%
Leon Ayinde0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. May20%
Isaac Hutchinson20%
Owen Bailey20%
Neill Byrne0%
J. Senior0%
Robbie Gotts0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Jamie Sterry0%
George Broadbent0%
J. McGrath0%
S. Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
Bayley McCann0%
J. Thomas0%
Leon Ayinde0%
Barnsley
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. McGeehan60%
Reyes Cleary40%
Amani Richards25%
Makenzie Kirk25%
Tyrese Noslin25%
Luca Connell0%
Patrick Kelly0%
Sam Gale0%
Jonathan Bland0%
Luke Alker0%
Rogan Ravenhill0%
Leo Farrell0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jonathan Bland50%
Leo Farrell33%
Sam Gale25%
Tyrese Noslin25%
Rogan Ravenhill25%
C. McGeehan20%
Patrick Kelly20%
Luca Connell0%
Reyes Cleary0%
Amani Richards0%
Makenzie Kirk0%
Luke Alker0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Reyes Cleary40%
Patrick Kelly20%
Luca Connell0%
C. McGeehan0%
Amani Richards0%
Makenzie Kirk0%
Sam Gale0%
Tyrese Noslin0%
Jonathan Bland0%
Luke Alker0%
Rogan Ravenhill0%
Leo Farrell0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tyrese Noslin50%
Reyes Cleary40%
Amani Richards25%
Makenzie Kirk25%
C. McGeehan20%
Patrick Kelly20%
Luca Connell0%
Sam Gale0%
Jonathan Bland0%
Luke Alker0%
Rogan Ravenhill0%
Leo Farrell0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Doncaster's squad is €1m less valuable than Barnsley's (€7m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Doncaster and Barnsley have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Doncaster and Barnsley have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Doncaster and Barnsley have a similar defence value (both €3m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe