Doncaster face Plymouth with the model favouring an away win, a 53% chance versus 21% for a home victory and 27% for a draw. The expected total goals sit at 2.7, with the most probable scoreline 1-1 at 12.7%. Doncaster, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.4 conceded, while Plymouth, on the road to a weaker opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6% with a 5% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (98.2% with a 7% edge), Under 6.5 (98.1% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.6% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.4% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.8% with a 3% edge), and Under 5.5 (94.7% with a 4% edge). Doncaster’s recent draw against Notts County and Plymouth’s recent loss to Leicester set the tone for a tight encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Doncaster win
20.8%
Avg Implied 39.0% · @ 2.39
Edge
-18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.44
10Bet
2.42
Marathonbet
2.41
1xBet
2.41
William Hil
2.40
Draw
26.5%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.44
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.70
Pinnacle
3.56
Dafabet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Plymouth win
52.6%
Avg Implied 34.0% · @ 2.74
Edge
+18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.85
Unibet
2.80
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.75
Bet365
2.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Doncaster
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.37
1.12
1.38
1.21
1.36
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
1.88
1.00
2.40
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.27
1.18
1.18
0.91
1.36
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Plymouth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Plymouth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.20
1.88
1.38
1.86
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
4.00
2.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.94
1.25
1.88
1.62
2.00
0.88
vs Weaker (13)
1.77
0.92
1.86
0.71
1.67
1.17
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.5%
@ 1.22-0.3%
Under 1.5
24.5%
@ 3.83+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
4.05
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.82
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.6%
@ 1.76-3.8%
Under 2.5
50.4%
@ 2.02+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.77
Unibet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
Bet365
2.05
Betfair
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.03
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.7%
@ 2.83-5.1%
Under 3.5
72.3%
@ 1.38+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.87
Betano
2.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
Both teams to score
Yes
51.9%
@ 1.61-5.7%
No
48.1%
@ 2.18+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Unibet
1.60
No
BetVictor
2.25
1xBet
2.21
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%@ 6.21+5.5%
0-1
10.6%@ 9.47+5.9%
0-2
9.9%@ 13.47+6.6%
1-2
9.7%@ 9.28+4.9%
0-0
8.2%@ 11.21+4.2%
1-0
5.7%@ 8.73+0.6%
2-1
5.6%@ 8.51+0.4%
0-3
5.5%@ 27.36+3.9%
Doncaster goals ↓
Plymouth goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
11%
9.9%
5.5%
2.3%
1
5.7%
13%
9.7%
5.4%
2.3%
2
3.4%
5.6%
4.7%
2.6%
1.1%
3
1.1%
1.8%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Doncaster goals (down), columns = Plymouth goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Doncaster is 0.28 points worse than Plymouth in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Doncaster is 0.54 goals worse than Plymouth in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Doncaster is 0.13 goals worse than Plymouth in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Doncaster is 2.8 percentage points better than Plymouth in terms of average possession (50% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Doncaster
For 4.1 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 11.4 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Plymouth
For 6.4 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 11.5 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Doncaster
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.6
10.3
3.7
3.8
3.7
22.8
23.2
22.4
vs Stronger (14)
10.4
11.1
9.6
4.3
4.3
4.3
23.0
24.4
21.6
vs Similar (36)
9.8
9.0
10.6
3.5
3.6
3.5
22.7
22.7
22.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
39%
38%
40%
50%
54%
46%
59%
58%
60%
% under line
61%
62%
60%
50%
46%
54%
41%
42%
40%
This opponent (Plymouth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Plymouth
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
11.0
11.7
4.7
4.8
4.6
24.6
24.3
24.9
vs Stronger (1)
6.0
6.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
34.0
34.0
-
vs Similar (26)
11.4
10.9
11.8
4.3
4.5
4.2
23.8
24.5
23.2
vs Weaker (23)
11.5
11.4
11.5
5.2
5.2
5.1
25.0
23.3
26.9
% over line
73%
64%
83%
74%
76%
72%
67%
64%
71%
% under line
27%
36%
17%
26%
24%
28%
33%
36%
29%
This opponent (Doncaster) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.7
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.2
Leicester
11.0
Blackpool
10.6
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.4
Burton
10.4
Bradford
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Huddersfield
10.2
Bromley
10.2
AFC Wimbledon
10.1
Wycombe
10.1
Peterboro
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Stockport
9.8
Mansfield
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.7
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.2
Milton Keynes Dons
9.2
Cambridge
9.0
Stevenage
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.8
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Blackpool
3.9
Doncaster
3.8
Bromley
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Mansfield
3.8
Luton
3.7
Leicester
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Wycombe
3.6
Burton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Barnsley
3.6
Oxford
3.5
AFC Wimbledon
3.3
Stockport
3.3
Wigan
3.2
Sheffield Weds
3.1
Cambridge
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.8
Plymouth
24.5
Bradford
24.4
Huddersfield
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Luton
23.9
Leyton Orient
23.7
Wigan
23.3
AFC Wimbledon
23.2
Peterboro
23.2
Milton Keynes Dons
23.1
Blackpool
23.1
Doncaster
22.8
Reading
22.7
Burton
22.5
Oxford
22.4
Cambridge
22.4
Mansfield
22.3
Sheffield Weds
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Bromley
21.9
Wycombe
21.3
Stockport
20.8
Barnsley
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.1%
@ 1.53-1.0%
Under 9.5
40.9%
@ 2.30+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
Unibet
1.49
Under
Unibet
2.38
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
57.9%
Under 3.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
69.6%
Under 21.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Doncaster or Draw
47.4%
Avg Implied 66.1% · @ 1.41
Edge
-18.7%
21%
27%
53%
covers Doncaster + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
Doncaster or Plymouth
73.5%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.27
Edge
+0.3%
21%
27%
53%
covers Doncaster + Plymouth
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or Plymouth
79.2%
Avg Implied 60.8% · @ 1.53
Edge
+18.4%
21%
27%
53%
covers Draw + Plymouth
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.60
William Hil
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Bet365
1.53
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Doncaster over/under 0.5
Over
62.4%
@ 1.22-13.3%
Under
37.6%
@ 3.81+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.97
1xBet
3.84
BetVictor
3.80
Doncaster over/under 1.5
Over
25.7%
@ 2.14-17.8%
Under
74.3%
@ 1.65+17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.20
Marathonbet
2.17
1xBet
2.17
10Bet
2.15
BetVictor
2.15
Under
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.66
Doncaster over/under 2.5
Over
7.6%
@ 4.68-12.1%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.15+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
Betfair
4.80
10Bet
4.75
BetVictor
4.75
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Doncaster over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
@ 10.88-7.0%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.04+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Plymouth over/under 0.5
Over
81.3%
@ 1.26+7.9%
Under
18.7%
@ 3.49-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Betfair
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.64
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.48
Plymouth over/under 1.5
Over
50.0%
@ 2.35+10.3%
Under
50.0%
@ 1.55-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.40
Pinnacle
2.39
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
Under
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Plymouth over/under 2.5
Over
23.7%
@ 5.33+6.3%
Under
76.3%
@ 1.12-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Plymouth over/under 3.5
Over
9.0%
@ 12.25+1.2%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.03-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Doncaster, so a minus line means Doncaster give that many goals of a start and Plymouth receive them. At -1, Doncaster must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Doncaster win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Doncaster)
Doncaster -2
2.1%
@ 9.26-7.4%
Draw -2
5.6%
@ 6.31-8.3%
Plymouth +2
92.3%
@ 1.15+15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
6.55
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.40
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Handicap -1 (Doncaster)
Doncaster -1
7.7%
@ 4.51-12.2%
Draw -1
13.1%
@ 4.12-8.7%
Plymouth +1
79.2%
@ 1.54+20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.80
Away
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Handicap +1 (Doncaster)
Doncaster +1
47.4%
@ 1.41-16.2%
Draw +1
23.3%
@ 4.45+3.1%
Plymouth -1
29.3%
@ 5.51+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Away
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Handicap +2 (Doncaster)
Doncaster +2
70.7%
@ 1.11-9.4%
Draw +2
16.5%
@ 7.28+4.3%
Plymouth -2
12.8%
@ 11.47+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
5.10
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.90
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Doncaster
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.43
0.50
0.50
0.21
0.36
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
0.88
0.00
1.20
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.27
0.73
0.18
0.18
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Plymouth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Plymouth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
0.69
0.75
1.07
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.62
0.75
0.88
1.25
0.38
vs Weaker (13)
0.69
0.62
0.57
0.43
0.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.1%
@ 1.33-0.1%
Under 0.5
29.9%
@ 3.13+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.26
William Hil
3.25
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.9%
@ 2.56-3.4%
Under 1.5
67.1%
@ 1.45+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.60
Betfair
2.60
1xBet
2.59
Under
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.2%
@ 6.49-2.1%
Under 2.5
87.8%
@ 1.08+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.30
Marathonbet
6.30
Under
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Doncaster over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.1%
@ 1.94-5.7%
Under
57.9%
@ 1.77+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Unibet
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.76
Unibet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Doncaster over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.1%
@ 5.92-6.5%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.10+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.30
1xBet
6.30
Betano
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Doncaster over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
@ 14.25-5.3%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Plymouth over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.1%
@ 2.04+2.6%
Under
51.9%
@ 1.70-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.06
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.03
Unibet
2.02
Under
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Plymouth over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.5%
@ 6.56-0.6%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.08+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.00
1xBet
7.00
10Bet
6.25
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Plymouth over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.8%
@ 17.50-2.6%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Doncaster
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.93
0.62
0.88
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.20
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.91
0.45
0.73
1.18
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Plymouth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Plymouth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.53
1.19
0.62
0.79
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.62
1.12
0.75
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (13)
1.08
0.31
1.29
0.29
0.83
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.8%
@ 1.19+0.8%
Under 0.5
21.2%
@ 4.23-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Under
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.20
William Hil
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.5%
@ 1.95+0.8%
Under 1.5
51.5%
@ 1.78-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.98
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.96
William Hil
1.95
Betano
1.95
Under
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
William Hil
1.75
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.4%
@ 3.99-2.8%
Under 2.5
79.6%
@ 1.21+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.85
Under
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Doncaster over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.6%
@ 1.66-6.2%
Under
50.4%
@ 2.10+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Under
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Doncaster over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.2%
@ 4.18-8.9%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.19+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.10
Betano
3.95
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Doncaster over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.6%
@ 10.62-6.2%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.03+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Plymouth over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.1%
@ 1.72-1.6%
Under
47.9%
@ 2.00+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
10Bet
1.95
Plymouth over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.4%
@ 4.60+0.3%
Under
79.6%
@ 1.16-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Plymouth over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.3%
@ 11.38-3.0%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.3%
Home under 3.5 goals
98.2%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
+7.0%
Under 6.5
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.1%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.2%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.0%
Under 5.5
94.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
1xBet
1.01
+4.0%
Home under 2.5 goals
92.4%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.15
Unibet
1.15
+12.1%
Away +2 handicap
92.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+15.7%
Away under 3.5 goals
91.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-1.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.9%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
+6.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.08
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
+2.1%
Under 4.5
86.9%
1.12
Pinnacle
1.16
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+4.0%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.8%
1.19
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
-
+8.9%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.08
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
+0.6%
Over 19.5 fouls
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.3%
1.26
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Betfair
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
+7.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.16
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-0.3%
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
+2.8%
Draw or Away
79.2%
1.53
Betano
1.60
William Hil
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Bet365
1.53
+18.4%
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.8%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
+0.8%
Under 5.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.3%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
-6.3%
Over 1.5
75.5%
1.22
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
-0.3%
Home under 1.5 goals
74.3%
1.65
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.66
+17.8%
Home or Away
73.5%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+0.3%
Under 3.5
72.3%
1.38
Pinnacle
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
+5.1%
Over 8.5 corners
71.1%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
+0.3%
Home +2 handicap
70.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
-
-9.4%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.1%
1.33
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
-0.1%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Doncaster
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Isaac Hutchinson40%
J. Senior20%
A. May20%
Owen Bailey20%
Neill Byrne0%
Robbie Gotts0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Jamie Sterry0%
George Broadbent0%
J. McGrath0%
S. Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
Bayley McCann0%
J. Thomas0%
Leon Ayinde0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Senior40%
Robbie Gotts25%
George Broadbent25%
J. Thomas25%
Isaac Hutchinson20%
Owen Bailey20%
J. McGrath20%
Neill Byrne0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
A. May0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Jamie Sterry0%
S. Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
Bayley McCann0%
Leon Ayinde0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bayley McCann33%
J. Senior20%
J. McGrath20%
Neill Byrne0%
Robbie Gotts0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
A. May0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Isaac Hutchinson0%
Jamie Sterry0%
Owen Bailey0%
George Broadbent0%
S. Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
J. Thomas0%
Leon Ayinde0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. May20%
Isaac Hutchinson20%
Owen Bailey20%
Neill Byrne0%
J. Senior0%
Robbie Gotts0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Jamie Sterry0%
George Broadbent0%
J. McGrath0%
S. Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
Bayley McCann0%
J. Thomas0%
Leon Ayinde0%
Plymouth
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Julio Pleguezuelo25%
Alex Hartridge25%
Will Evans20%
Xavier Amaechi20%
H. White20%
Aribim Pepple20%
M. Ross0%
W. Harding0%
Ronan Curtis0%
Tyreeq Bakinson0%
M. Sorinola0%
C. Watts0%
Bradley Ibrahim0%
A. Mitchell0%
Murphy Cooper0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Xavier Amaechi40%
Bradley Ibrahim25%
W. Harding20%
Will Evans20%
Julio Pleguezuelo0%
M. Ross0%
Alex Hartridge0%
Ronan Curtis0%
Tyreeq Bakinson0%
M. Sorinola0%
H. White0%
Aribim Pepple0%
C. Watts0%
A. Mitchell0%
Murphy Cooper0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
H. White40%
Tyreeq Bakinson33%
Bradley Ibrahim25%
Julio Pleguezuelo0%
M. Ross0%
Alex Hartridge0%
W. Harding0%
Ronan Curtis0%
Will Evans0%
Xavier Amaechi0%
M. Sorinola0%
Aribim Pepple0%
C. Watts0%
A. Mitchell0%
Murphy Cooper0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ronan Curtis25%
Will Evans20%
Aribim Pepple20%
Julio Pleguezuelo0%
M. Ross0%
Alex Hartridge0%
W. Harding0%
Tyreeq Bakinson0%
Xavier Amaechi0%
M. Sorinola0%
H. White0%
C. Watts0%
Bradley Ibrahim0%
A. Mitchell0%
Murphy Cooper0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Doncaster's squad is €6m less valuable than Plymouth's (€7m vs €13m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Doncaster's attack is €3m less valuable than Plymouth's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Doncaster and Plymouth have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Doncaster's defence is €3m less valuable than Plymouth's (€3m vs €6m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe