The contest between Dordrecht and Jong AZ is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 36% and 38% respectively, while a draw is 26%. The expected total of 3.1 goals points to a lively match, yet the most likely total is two goals, with a 22% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 11.7% probability.
Dordrecht, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.21 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. Jong AZ, on the road, has a stronger offensive record of 2.67 goals scored and 2.5 conceded against comparable teams.
The model’s selections include: Away under 2.5 HT goals97.9% (edge 5%); Under 7.597.5% (edge 1%); Home under 2.5 HT goals96.7% (edge 6%); Away under 2.5 2H goals95.2% (edge 5%); Home under 2.5 2H goals94.6% (edge 7%); Under 6.593.9% (edge 2%); Home under 3.5 goals90.8% (edge 6%); and Away under 3.5 goals89.8%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dordrecht win
36.1%
Avg Implied 42.3% · @ 2.19
Edge
-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.26
Bet365
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.20
Draw
25.8%
Avg Implied 24.7% · @ 3.75
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Dafabet
3.85
Pinnacle
3.80
Betano
3.80
Jong AZ win
38.1%
Avg Implied 33.0% · @ 2.81
Edge
+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.95
William Hil
2.88
Pinnacle
2.87
1xBet
2.86
Marathonbet
2.85
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dordrecht
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.87
1.27
1.40
1.07
2.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.14
1.86
1.21
1.36
1.07
2.33
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong AZ
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
2.03
1.12
1.81
2.21
2.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
2.00
2.67
1.25
2.50
2.60
2.80
vs Weaker (21)
1.48
1.76
1.08
1.58
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dordrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.1%
@ 1.11-0.8%
Under 1.5
16.9%
@ 5.78+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.50
Pinnacle
6.01
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.7%
@ 1.42-4.9%
Under 2.5
39.3%
@ 2.70+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.77
10Bet
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Bet365
2.70
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.4%
@ 2.05-7.2%
Under 3.5
61.6%
@ 1.72+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
Unibet
2.06
1xBet
2.06
Under
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Both teams to score
Yes
63.7%
@ 1.39-3.0%
No
36.2%
@ 2.78+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
No
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.86
Marathonbet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%@ 7.62+5.8%
1-2
8.5%@ 9.89+3.9%
2-1
8.3%@ 8.74+3.1%
2-2
6.6%@ 10.04+2.1%
0-1
5.8%@ 13.67+2.5%
1-0
5.6%@ 12.10+1.9%
0-2
5.5%@ 17.11+2.9%
0-0
5.4%@ 17.44+2.8%
Dordrecht goals ↓
Jong AZ goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
5.8%
5.5%
2.9%
1.2%
1
5.6%
12%
8.5%
4.5%
1.8%
2
5.2%
8.3%
6.6%
3.5%
1.4%
3
2.7%
4.3%
3.4%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.0%
1.6%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dordrecht goals (down), columns = Jong AZ goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Dordrecht is 0.18 points better than Jong AZ in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Dordrecht is 0.34 goals worse than Jong AZ in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Dordrecht is 0.53 goals better than Jong AZ in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Dordrecht is 5.4 percentage points worse than Jong AZ in terms of average possession (48% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dordrecht
For 5.9 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 13.4 · Total 27.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jong AZ
For 5.7 · Against 5.3 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 10.3 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dordrecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
12.0
10.7
4.2
4.0
4.5
25.8
25.1
26.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
11.5
12.3
10.6
4.1
3.8
4.3
25.8
24.9
26.6
vs Weaker (2)
8.5
5.0
12.0
8.5
8.0
9.0
28.0
30.0
26.0
% over line
70%
80%
60%
56%
56%
56%
80%
68%
92%
% under line
30%
20%
40%
44%
44%
44%
20%
32%
8%
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong AZ
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.0
11.2
3.3
3.2
3.3
23.4
24.5
22.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
11.4
10.4
12.8
3.7
3.6
3.8
23.8
25.5
21.6
vs Weaker (30)
10.0
9.8
10.2
3.0
2.9
3.1
23.2
23.8
22.7
% over line
56%
50%
62%
40%
42%
38%
66%
77%
54%
% under line
44%
50%
38%
60%
58%
62%
34%
23%
46%
This opponent (Dordrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.2
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.9
Dordrecht
11.3
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Heracles
10.9
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong PSV U21
10.6
Jong AZ
10.6
FC Eindhoven
10.6
Jong Ajax
10.5
Emmen
10.3
FC Volendam
10.3
MVV
10.2
Vitesse
10.0
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Emmen
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Jong Ajax
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
Jong AZ
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Roda
3.3
Helmond Sport
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
Jong PSV U21
3.2
MVV
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.7
Dordrecht
25.8
Emmen
25.7
Jong Utrecht
25.5
Helmond Sport
25.4
Jong Ajax
25.0
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
Jong PSV U21
23.8
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.4
Den Bosch
23.3
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.9
De Graafschap
22.7
MVV
22.5
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
65.1%
@ 1.44+1.4%
Under 9.5
34.9%
@ 2.52-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Under
Unibet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.50
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.1%
Under 3.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.5%
Under 21.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dordrecht or Draw
61.4%
Avg Implied 66.7% · @ 1.40
Edge
-5.3%
36%
26%
38%
covers Dordrecht + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.44
William Hil
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Dordrecht or Jong AZ
75.7%
Avg Implied 75.7% · @ 1.23
Edge
-0.0%
36%
26%
38%
covers Dordrecht + Jong AZ
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Draw or Jong AZ
62.9%
Avg Implied 57.6% · @ 1.62
Edge
+5.3%
36%
26%
38%
covers Draw + Jong AZ
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
William Hil
1.62
1xBet
1.62
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dordrecht over/under 0.5
Over
81.9%
@ 1.13-0.2%
Under
18.1%
@ 5.14+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.35
BetVictor
5.25
Superbet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Dordrecht over/under 1.5
Over
50.9%
@ 1.70-3.8%
Under
49.1%
@ 2.05+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.06
Betano
2.05
Dordrecht over/under 2.5
Over
24.5%
@ 3.18-4.7%
Under
75.5%
@ 1.31+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
10Bet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Under
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
Dordrecht over/under 3.5
Over
9.4%
@ 6.60-4.8%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.09+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.60
Betano
6.10
1xBet
5.30
Under
1xBet
1.11
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Jong AZ over/under 0.5
Over
82.5%
@ 1.18+4.3%
Under
17.5%
@ 4.25-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Jong AZ over/under 1.5
Over
52.0%
@ 1.95+4.5%
Under
48.0%
@ 1.77-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.97
Under
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Jong AZ over/under 2.5
Over
25.4%
@ 4.00+2.3%
Under
74.6%
@ 1.20-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.12
BetVictor
4.10
Unibet
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Under
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Jong AZ over/under 3.5
Over
10.0%
@ 9.10-0.4%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.05+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.30
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dordrecht, so a minus line means Dordrecht give that many goals of a start and Jong AZ receive them. At -1, Dordrecht must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dordrecht win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dordrecht)
Dordrecht -2
8.1%
@ 7.21-4.3%
Draw -2
11.3%
@ 6.10-3.4%
Jong AZ +2
80.6%
@ 1.23+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
Superbet
7.10
Unibet
6.75
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
6.00
Unibet
5.60
Away
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Handicap -1 (Dordrecht)
Dordrecht -1
19.4%
@ 3.71-4.6%
Draw -1
17.7%
@ 4.25-3.3%
Jong AZ +1
62.9%
@ 1.62+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.85
Superbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Away
Unibet
1.67
Superbet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Handicap +1 (Dordrecht)
Dordrecht +1
61.4%
@ 1.40-2.7%
Draw +1
18.1%
@ 4.79-0.6%
Jong AZ -1
20.5%
@ 5.20+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Unibet
1.35
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Superbet
4.80
Unibet
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Away
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Handicap +2 (Dordrecht)
Dordrecht +2
79.5%
@ 1.11+0.9%
Draw +2
11.8%
@ 7.18-0.3%
Jong AZ -2
8.7%
@ 9.42-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.25
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dordrecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.93
0.53
0.67
0.40
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.41
0.93
0.43
0.64
0.40
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong AZ
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.44
0.88
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.56
1.11
0.25
1.25
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.57
0.76
0.50
0.75
0.67
0.78
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Dordrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.0%
@ 1.22-1.9%
Under 0.5
26.0%
@ 3.84+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
Superbet
3.90
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.4%
@ 2.07-6.5%
Under 1.5
61.6%
@ 1.69+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.16
Betano
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Under
William Hil
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
Superbet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.5%
@ 4.39-5.6%
Under 2.5
84.5%
@ 1.18+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
Under
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dordrecht over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.9%
@ 1.67-2.6%
Under
47.1%
@ 2.08+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Superbet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.66
Under
Pinnacle
2.15
Unibet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Dordrecht over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.4%
@ 4.31-4.1%
Under
82.6%
@ 1.18+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.30
Superbet
4.25
1xBet
4.10
Under
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Dordrecht over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.1%
@ 10.92-5.5%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Jong AZ over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.1%
@ 1.85-5.0%
Under
54.9%
@ 1.85+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Jong AZ over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.5%
@ 5.16-6.4%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.13+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.50
1xBet
5.20
Superbet
5.10
Betano
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Jong AZ over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
@ 13.67-4.9%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dordrecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.73
0.73
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.72
0.93
0.79
0.71
0.67
1.13
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong AZ
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.17
0.69
0.94
1.50
1.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.44
1.56
1.00
1.25
1.80
1.80
vs Weaker (21)
0.90
1.00
0.58
0.83
1.33
1.22
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Dordrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.3%
@ 1.12-1.8%
Under 0.5
18.7%
@ 5.50+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Under
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.60
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
5.35
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.0%
@ 1.63-5.0%
Under 1.5
48.0%
@ 2.16+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.67
Superbet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.15
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.0%
@ 2.91-9.0%
Under 2.5
77.0%
@ 1.36+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.92
1xBet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.85
Under
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dordrecht over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.1%
@ 1.46-7.5%
Under
43.9%
@ 2.55+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
1xBet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Under
Betano
2.57
10Bet
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Dordrecht over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.7%
@ 3.13-7.9%
Under
78.3%
@ 1.32+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.10
Betano
3.05
Under
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.31
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Dordrecht over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.3%
@ 7.83-6.6%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.05+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.20
Superbet
8.10
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Jong AZ over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.1%
@ 1.57-2.9%
Under
43.9%
@ 2.26+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Under
Betano
2.32
10Bet
2.30
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Jong AZ over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.9%
@ 3.70-5.1%
Under
80.1%
@ 1.24+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.82
1xBet
3.80
Superbet
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Betano
3.55
Under
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Jong AZ over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.6%
@ 9.25-4.4%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.04+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+4.9%
Under 7.5
97.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.7%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+5.5%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
+6.6%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
-
-
+4.4%
Under 6.5
93.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
+2.3%
Home under 3.5 goals
90.6%
1.09
1xBet
1.11
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
+4.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
90.0%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
+0.4%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.5%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
+6.4%
Under 5.5
86.4%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
+1.6%
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.5%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
+5.6%
Over 19.5 fouls
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.1%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Superbet
1.11
-0.8%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.6%
1.18
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
+4.1%
Away over 0.5 goals
82.5%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Unibet
1.18
+4.3%
Home over 0.5 goals
81.9%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Superbet
1.13
-0.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.3%
1.12
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
-1.8%
Away +2 handicap
80.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
+7.7%
Under 5.5 cards
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.1%
1.24
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+5.1%
Home +2 handicap
79.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
+0.9%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.32
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.31
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
+7.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.0%
1.36
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
+9.0%
Over 8.5 corners
76.1%
1.24
Unibet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.22
-
-
-
+2.6%
Home or Away
75.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
-0.0%
Home under 2.5 goals
75.5%
1.31
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
+4.7%
Away under 2.5 goals
74.6%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
-2.3%
Over 2.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.0%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
-1.9%
Under 4.5
73.5%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
+1.1%
Over 21.5 fouls
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dordrecht
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Vetkal50%
Nicolás Rossi33%
Dario Sits25%
Ayoub Ouarghi25%
Nick Venema0%
Calvin Raatsie0%
Yannis M'Bemba0%
Jurre van Aken0%
Jaden Pinas0%
Adil Lechkar0%
Beni Mpanzu0%
Siginho Gerardo0%
Robin van Asten0%
Senne Vugts0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ayoub Ouarghi75%
Martin Vetkal50%
Beni Mpanzu50%
Jurre van Aken25%
Dario Sits25%
Jaden Pinas25%
Nick Venema0%
Calvin Raatsie0%
Yannis M'Bemba0%
Nicolás Rossi0%
Adil Lechkar0%
Siginho Gerardo0%
Robin van Asten0%
Senne Vugts0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dario Sits50%
Nick Venema25%
Ayoub Ouarghi25%
Martin Vetkal0%
Calvin Raatsie0%
Yannis M'Bemba0%
Jurre van Aken0%
Nicolás Rossi0%
Jaden Pinas0%
Adil Lechkar0%
Beni Mpanzu0%
Siginho Gerardo0%
Robin van Asten0%
Senne Vugts0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dario Sits75%
Beni Mpanzu25%
Ayoub Ouarghi25%
Nick Venema0%
Martin Vetkal0%
Calvin Raatsie0%
Yannis M'Bemba0%
Jurre van Aken0%
Nicolás Rossi0%
Jaden Pinas0%
Adil Lechkar0%
Siginho Gerardo0%
Robin van Asten0%
Senne Vugts0%
Jong AZ
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ayoub Oufkir67%
Julian Oerip40%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Rio Robbemond25%
Yoël van den Ban20%
Tycho de Wit20%
Sam De Grand0%
Kiyani Zeggen0%
Rion Ichihara0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Frej Elkjær Andersen0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Andrea Natali0%
Jerolldino Bergraaf0%
Hessel de Wit0%
Kiani Inge0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julian Oerip40%
Ayoub Oufkir33%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Sam De Grand0%
Kiyani Zeggen0%
Yoël van den Ban0%
Rion Ichihara0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Frej Elkjær Andersen0%
Rio Robbemond0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Andrea Natali0%
Jerolldino Bergraaf0%
Hessel de Wit0%
Kiani Inge0%
Tycho de Wit0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrea Natali33%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Rio Robbemond25%
Julian Oerip20%
Yoël van den Ban20%
Sam De Grand0%
Kiyani Zeggen0%
Rion Ichihara0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Frej Elkjær Andersen0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Jerolldino Bergraaf0%
Hessel de Wit0%
Kiani Inge0%
Tycho de Wit0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Julian Oerip100%
Ayoub Oufkir67%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Sam De Grand0%
Kiyani Zeggen0%
Yoël van den Ban0%
Rion Ichihara0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Frej Elkjær Andersen0%
Rio Robbemond0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Andrea Natali0%
Jerolldino Bergraaf0%
Hessel de Wit0%
Kiani Inge0%
Tycho de Wit0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Dordrecht and Jong AZ have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Dordrecht and Jong AZ have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Dordrecht and Jong AZ have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Dordrecht and Jong AZ have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht