Dordrecht are likely to secure a narrow win against Roda, as they've been in decent form lately, coming off a draw against Waalwijk. The home side has been scoring and conceding an average of 1.5 goals at home, particularly against weaker opponents. Meanwhile, Roda have struggled on the road, conceding 2 goals per match, but scoring just 1 goal against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a 44% chance of a home win, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 30% chance of an away win. The most likely result is a home win, with an expected total of 2.9 goals and the most probable scoreline being 1-1, occurring 24% of the time.
Dordrecht are likely to score 1.5 goals at home and concede 1.5 goals, while Roda are expected to score 1 goal away and concede 2 goals. The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, with an 80% probability, and an edge of 3%. Additionally, Over 21.5 fouls is selected with a 77.1% probability, and Home or Away with a 72.2% probability. The home win percentage is 44%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 30%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Roda snatched a 1-0 victory, ending Dordrecht’s run of defeats and snapping the model’s home-win prediction. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 44 % probability, but the result proved wrong. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.2 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.1 %, Under 6.5 hit at 97.7 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.4 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 95.5 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 94.1 %, Under 5.5 hit at 93.8 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 89.2 %. Dordrecht’s recent form of LDWLL contrasted with Roda’s WWLDD, and the match finished 0-1 in favour of the visitors.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dordrecht win✗ Miss
43.7%
Avg Implied 36.9% · @ 2.50
Edge
+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.60
Dafabet
2.60
Superbet
2.60
Betano
2.57
Pinnacle
2.57
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.43
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.70
Dafabet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.53
BetVictor
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Roda win✓ Hit
29.7%
Avg Implied 36.2% · @ 2.55
Edge
-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.65
Unibet
2.63
Bet365
2.60
Dafabet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.57
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dordrecht
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.73
1.33
1.47
1.13
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.21
1.72
1.29
1.43
1.13
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Roda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Roda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.43
1.07
1.53
1.53
1.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
1.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.37
1.33
1.08
1.38
1.64
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dordrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.2%
@ 1.19+2.3%
Under 1.5
19.8%
@ 4.21-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Unibet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.42
BetVictor
4.40
888Sport
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.1%
@ 1.67-0.1%
Under 2.5
43.9%
@ 2.14+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Under
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
Pinnacle
2.19
1xBet
2.19
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.7%
@ 2.60-2.0%
Under 3.5
66.3%
@ 1.44+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.71
Unibet
2.70
BetVictor
2.63
Betfair
2.63
Under
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.7%
@ 1.52-1.0%
No
40.3%
@ 2.35+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
Unibet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Superbet
1.53
No
Betfair
2.45
William Hil
2.40
888Sport
2.40
BetVictor
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 6.49+5.5%
2-1
9.2%@ 8.99+4.2%
1-0
7.5%@ 9.92+3.0%
1-2
7.4%@ 9.00+2.4%
2-0
7.0%@ 13.32+3.7%
0-0
6.5%@ 11.93+2.7%
2-2
6.0%@ 10.88+1.9%
0-1 ✓
5.8%@ 9.74+1.2%
Dordrecht goals ↓
Roda goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
5.8%
4.6%
2.0%
0.7%
1
7.5%
12%
7.4%
3.2%
1.1%
2
7.0%
9.2%
6.0%
2.6%
0.9%
3
3.8%
5.0%
3.3%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.5%
2.0%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dordrecht goals (down), columns = Roda goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Dordrecht is 0.19 points worse than Roda in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Dordrecht is 0.26 goals worse than Roda in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.52).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Dordrecht is 0.07 goals worse than Roda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Dordrecht is 3.9 percentage points worse than Roda in terms of average possession (48% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dordrecht
For 5.8 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.3 · Against 12.5 · Total 26.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Roda
For 4.9 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.9 · Against 16.9 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dordrecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.7
12.2
11.2
4.2
3.8
4.5
25.5
24.6
26.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
11.6
12.5
10.7
4.0
3.6
4.4
25.5
24.3
26.7
vs Weaker (3)
12.7
5.0
16.5
6.3
8.0
5.5
25.7
30.0
23.5
% over line
72%
80%
64%
54%
52%
56%
76%
64%
88%
% under line
28%
20%
36%
46%
48%
44%
24%
36%
12%
This opponent (Roda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Roda
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
11.0
8.9
2.8
3.4
2.2
24.7
24.3
25.2
vs Stronger (4)
12.0
10.0
14.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
21.2
20.0
22.5
vs Similar (46)
9.8
11.0
8.4
2.8
3.4
2.2
25.1
24.7
25.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
53%
67%
39%
34%
40%
28%
72%
67%
78%
% under line
47%
33%
61%
66%
60%
72%
28%
33%
22%
This opponent (Dordrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
Dordrecht
11.7
De Graafschap
11.7
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong AZ
10.6
FC Volendam
10.5
Emmen
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
FC Eindhoven
10.4
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.2
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.9
Vitesse
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.4
Dordrecht
4.2
FC OSS
4.2
Jong Ajax
3.9
Emmen
3.8
NAC Breda
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
Heracles
3.5
VVV Venlo
3.5
Jong AZ
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.4
Roda
3.3
FC Volendam
3.3
Waalwijk
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
De Graafschap
3.2
MVV
3.1
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.2
Vitesse
27.0
Emmen
26.0
Helmond Sport
25.9
Jong Utrecht
25.7
Dordrecht
25.5
Roda
25.1
Jong Ajax
25.0
Heracles
24.3
Jong PSV U21
24.0
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.6
Den Bosch
23.4
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.7
MVV
22.6
De Graafschap
22.6
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.1
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.6%
@ 1.61+3.2%
Under 9.5
39.4%
@ 2.17-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.71
Superbet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.57
Under
Betano
2.37
Pinnacle
2.24
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.16
Superbet
2.10
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.4%
Under 3.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.1%
Under 21.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dordrecht or Draw✗ Miss
66.7%
Avg Implied 63.5% · @ 1.47
Edge
+3.2%
44%
27%
30%
covers Dordrecht + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.52
William Hil
1.50
888Sport
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Dordrecht or Roda✓ Hit
72.2%
Avg Implied 73.2% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.0%
44%
27%
30%
covers Dordrecht + Roda
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Draw or Roda✓ Hit
61.1%
Avg Implied 63.3% · @ 1.48
Edge
-2.2%
44%
27%
30%
covers Draw + Roda
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.53
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Unibet
1.48
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dordrecht over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
76.4%
@ 1.22+0.3%
Under
23.6%
@ 3.88-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.15
BetVictor
4.00
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.94
888Sport
3.90
Dordrecht over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
42.4%
@ 2.09-2.0%
Under
57.6%
@ 1.67+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Under
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Betfair
1.67
Dordrecht over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.8%
@ 4.46-3.0%
Under
82.2%
@ 1.17+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Betfair
4.50
888Sport
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.20
888Sport
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Dordrecht over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 10.35-3.2%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.04+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Roda over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.3%
@ 1.23-2.1%
Under
26.7%
@ 3.76+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.02
BetVictor
3.90
Betano
3.90
Superbet
3.85
1xBet
3.84
Roda over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.1%
@ 2.12-5.7%
Under
61.9%
@ 1.65+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.23
Unibet
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
Under
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Roda over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.8%
@ 4.58-5.4%
Under
85.2%
@ 1.16+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
BetVictor
4.75
888Sport
4.60
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Roda over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 10.66-4.3%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.04+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
12.00
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
9.80
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dordrecht, so a minus line means Dordrecht give that many goals of a start and Roda receive them. At -1, Dordrecht must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dordrecht win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dordrecht)Actual: Roda
Dordrecht -2
7.2%
@ 10.10-1.6%
Draw -2
11.9%
@ 7.09-0.7%
Roda +2
80.9%
@ 1.14+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
8.90
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
6.95
Unibet
6.40
Away
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Handicap -1 (Dordrecht)Actual: Roda
Dordrecht -1
19.1%
@ 4.63-0.1%
Draw -1
19.8%
@ 4.30-0.9%
Roda +1
61.1%
@ 1.48+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
3.95
Away
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Handicap +1 (Dordrecht)Actual: Draw
Dordrecht +1
66.7%
@ 1.47+5.6%
Draw +1
18.0%
@ 4.39-2.4%
Roda -1
15.3%
@ 4.86-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.46
Betfair
1.44
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Marathonbet
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Away
Unibet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Handicap +2 (Dordrecht)Actual: Dordrecht
Dordrecht +2
84.7%
@ 1.13+5.8%
Draw +2
9.9%
@ 7.16-2.6%
Roda -2
5.3%
@ 10.50-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
6.70
Away
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
11.00
Superbet
9.30
Marathonbet
9.20
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dordrecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.60
0.60
0.33
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.41
0.83
0.50
0.57
0.33
1.07
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Roda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Roda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.47
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.70
0.54
0.62
0.64
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dordrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.5%
@ 1.30-1.8%
Under 0.5
30.5%
@ 3.24+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.30
William Hil
3.30
Superbet
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.0%
@ 2.40-6.5%
Under 1.5
68.0%
@ 1.51+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.55
Betano
2.47
Unibet
2.43
William Hil
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Under
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
BetVictor
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.1%
@ 5.47-4.7%
Under 2.5
87.9%
@ 1.11+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Unibet
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dordrecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.8%
@ 1.91-1.7%
Under
53.2%
@ 1.80+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
10Bet
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Dordrecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 5.62-3.2%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.11+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.70
Superbet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Dordrecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 16.08-3.3%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Roda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.7%
@ 1.94-5.2%
Under
57.3%
@ 1.78+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.01
Unibet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Under
Superbet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
Roda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.8%
@ 5.65-5.7%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.11+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.50
Superbet
5.45
Under
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Roda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 16.17-4.0%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dordrecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.73
0.87
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.79
0.90
0.79
0.86
0.80
0.93
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Roda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Roda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.60
0.87
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.63
0.54
0.77
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Dordrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dordrecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dordrecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dordrecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Roda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Roda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Roda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betfair
1.01
Superbet
1.01
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
1.04
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.1%
1.04
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.8%
1.05
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.05
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.11
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.9%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Unibet
1.10
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.11
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.3%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.2%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.7%
1.13
Superbet
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
82.2%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.20
888Sport
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.9%
1.14
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.2%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Unibet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
888Sport
1.22
+0.3%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
73.3%
1.23
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
Betfair
1.22
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.3%
1.36
Unibet
1.44
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.2%
1.27
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dordrecht
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Vetkal50%
Nicolás Rossi33%
Dario Sits25%
Ayoub Ouarghi25%
Nick Venema0%
Calvin Raatsie0%
Yannis M'Bemba0%
Jurre van Aken0%
Jaden Pinas0%
Adil Lechkar0%
Beni Mpanzu0%
Siginho Gerardo0%
Robin van Asten0%
Senne Vugts0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ayoub Ouarghi75%
Martin Vetkal50%
Beni Mpanzu50%
Jurre van Aken25%
Dario Sits25%
Jaden Pinas25%
Nick Venema0%
Calvin Raatsie0%
Yannis M'Bemba0%
Nicolás Rossi0%
Adil Lechkar0%
Siginho Gerardo0%
Robin van Asten0%
Senne Vugts0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dario Sits50%
Nick Venema25%
Ayoub Ouarghi25%
Martin Vetkal0%
Calvin Raatsie0%
Yannis M'Bemba0%
Jurre van Aken0%
Nicolás Rossi0%
Jaden Pinas0%
Adil Lechkar0%
Beni Mpanzu0%
Siginho Gerardo0%
Robin van Asten0%
Senne Vugts0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dario Sits75%
Beni Mpanzu25%
Ayoub Ouarghi25%
Nick Venema0%
Martin Vetkal0%
Calvin Raatsie0%
Yannis M'Bemba0%
Jurre van Aken0%
Nicolás Rossi0%
Jaden Pinas0%
Adil Lechkar0%
Siginho Gerardo0%
Robin van Asten0%
Senne Vugts0%
Roda
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marco Tol50%
Joshua Nisbet25%
Anthony van den Hurk25%
Lucas Beerten25%
Mitchell Paulissen0%
Jerome Deom0%
Joey Sleegers0%
Jay Kruiver0%
Justin Treichel0%
Koen Jansen0%
Dyon Dorenbosch0%
Xander van den Berg0%
Bram Marsman0%
Jeremiah Mensah0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Anthony van den Hurk50%
Jeremiah Mensah33%
Lucas Beerten25%
Koen Jansen25%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Mitchell Paulissen0%
Marco Tol0%
Jerome Deom0%
Joey Sleegers0%
Jay Kruiver0%
Justin Treichel0%
Dyon Dorenbosch0%
Xander van den Berg0%
Bram Marsman0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mitchell Paulissen50%
Dyon Dorenbosch25%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Marco Tol0%
Jerome Deom0%
Anthony van den Hurk0%
Joey Sleegers0%
Lucas Beerten0%
Jay Kruiver0%
Justin Treichel0%
Koen Jansen0%
Xander van den Berg0%
Bram Marsman0%
Jeremiah Mensah0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony van den Hurk50%
Joey Sleegers33%
Lucas Beerten25%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Mitchell Paulissen0%
Marco Tol0%
Jerome Deom0%
Jay Kruiver0%
Justin Treichel0%
Koen Jansen0%
Dyon Dorenbosch0%
Xander van den Berg0%
Bram Marsman0%
Jeremiah Mensah0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Dordrecht's squad is €2m less valuable than Roda's (€6m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Dordrecht's attack is €2m less valuable than Roda's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Dordrecht and Roda have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Dordrecht and Roda have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht