The encounter between Doxa and Ayia Napa is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 34% for a Doxa victory, 28% for a draw and 38% for Ayia Napa to come out on top. The average goal count is 2.7, with the most likely total being two goals at 26% of all outcomes. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 13.6% chance.
Doxa, playing at home against a side of similar strength, averages 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Ayia Napa, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded against comparable opponents. Recent form adds intrigue: Doxa has lost two in a row and fell 0-3 to Ayia Napa, while Ayia Napa is on a two-game winning streak, having beaten Doxa 3-0.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Under 5.5 (94.6%), Under 4.5 (86.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (86.0%) and Away +2 handicap (84.7%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Doxa win
34.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa win
36.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Doxa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.17
0.75
1.00
1.79
1.36
vs Stronger (23)
1.30
1.13
0.82
0.82
1.75
1.42
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.29
0.60
1.40
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ayia Napa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.47
1.21
1.50
1.56
1.44
vs Stronger (26)
1.35
1.54
1.23
1.46
1.46
1.62
vs Similar (4)
1.75
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Doxa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.6%
Under 2.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.9%
Under 3.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
8.7%
1-0
8.3%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
8.0%
0-2
6.6%
2-0
6.1%
Doxa goals ↓
Ayia Napa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
8.7%
6.6%
2.9%
0.9%
1
8.3%
14%
8.3%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.1%
8.0%
5.2%
2.3%
0.8%
3
2.6%
3.4%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Doxa goals (down), columns = Ayia Napa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.66
Akritas
2.54
Enosis
2.44
PAEEK
1.59
Halkanoras
1.55
Doxa
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.41
Ermis
1.37
Polemidion
1.37
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.37
Digenis Morphou
1.34
APEA
1.34
Spartakos Kitiou
1.34
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.28
ASIL Lysi
1.07
MEAP Nisou
1.00
Doxa is 0.03 points better than Ayia Napa in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.62
Akritas
2.50
Enosis
2.40
Halkanoras
1.62
Digenis Morphou
1.55
PAEEK
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.45
Spartakos Kitiou
1.45
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
APEA
1.31
Doxa
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.07
Iraklis Yerolakkou
0.93
Doxa is 0.28 goals worse than Ayia Napa in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ethnikos Achna
0.70
Akritas
0.73
Enosis
0.76
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.03
PAEEK
1.07
Doxa
1.21
Spartakos Kitiou
1.24
Halkanoras
1.28
Digenis Morphou
1.31
APEA
1.31
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
Ayia Napa
1.48
ASIL Lysi
1.72
MEAP Nisou
1.72
Doxa is 0.28 goals better than Ayia Napa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.48).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Doxa or Draw
63.3%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Doxa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Doxa or Ayia Napa
71.0%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Doxa + Ayia Napa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ayia Napa
65.7%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Draw + Ayia Napa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Doxa over/under 0.5
Over
71.7%
Under
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 1.5
Over
36.0%
Under
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 2.5
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5
Over
73.1%
Under
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5
Over
37.8%
Under
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Doxa, so a minus line means Doxa give that many goals of a start and Ayia Napa receive them. At -1, Doxa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Doxa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Doxa)
Doxa -2
5.2%
Draw -2
10.2%
Ayia Napa +2
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Doxa)
Doxa -1
15.4%
Draw -1
18.8%
Ayia Napa +1
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Doxa)
Doxa +1
63.3%
Draw +1
19.7%
Ayia Napa -1
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Doxa)
Doxa +2
83.0%
Draw +2
11.0%
Ayia Napa -2
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Doxa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.38
0.50
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (23)
0.43
0.70
0.27
0.45
0.58
0.92
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.57
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ayia Napa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.43
0.93
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (26)
0.54
1.08
0.46
1.00
0.62
1.15
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Doxa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Doxa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Doxa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.38
0.50
1.21
0.50
vs Stronger (23)
0.87
0.43
0.55
0.36
1.17
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.71
0.00
0.80
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ayia Napa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.79
0.57
0.94
0.38
vs Stronger (26)
0.81
0.46
0.77
0.46
0.85
0.46
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
2.00
1.33
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Doxa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Doxa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Doxa · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nikola Trujić50%
Ernest Asante40%
Dimitar Velkovski20%
Marios Antoniadis0%
Mesca0%
Charis Kyriakou0%
Duško Trajčevski0%
Guessouma Fofana0%
Adil Nabi0%
Konstantinos Provydakis0%
Bryan Alceus0%
Simranjit Thandi0%
Omar Hani0%
Vangelis Kyriakou0%
Nicolai Skoglund0%
Aleksa Puric0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nikola Trujić75%
Mesca33%
Bryan Alceus25%
Marios Antoniadis20%
Duško Trajčevski20%
Ernest Asante20%
Simranjit Thandi20%
Dimitar Velkovski0%
Charis Kyriakou0%
Guessouma Fofana0%
Adil Nabi0%
Konstantinos Provydakis0%
Omar Hani0%
Vangelis Kyriakou0%
Nicolai Skoglund0%
Aleksa Puric0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Guessouma Fofana33%
Marios Antoniadis20%
Dimitar Velkovski20%
Mesca0%
Charis Kyriakou0%
Duško Trajčevski0%
Adil Nabi0%
Konstantinos Provydakis0%
Nikola Trujić0%
Ernest Asante0%
Bryan Alceus0%
Simranjit Thandi0%
Omar Hani0%
Vangelis Kyriakou0%
Nicolai Skoglund0%
Aleksa Puric0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nikola Trujić50%
Marios Antoniadis0%
Mesca0%
Dimitar Velkovski0%
Charis Kyriakou0%
Duško Trajčevski0%
Guessouma Fofana0%
Adil Nabi0%
Konstantinos Provydakis0%
Ernest Asante0%
Bryan Alceus0%
Simranjit Thandi0%
Omar Hani0%
Vangelis Kyriakou0%
Nicolai Skoglund0%
Aleksa Puric0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ENO (9)
€1m
AKR (5)
€1m
EA (2)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
AN (1)
€0m
PAE (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
Doxa and Ayia Napa have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ENO (3)
€0m
AKR (2)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
AN (1)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
PAE (0)
€0m
Doxa and Ayia Napa have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ENO (2)
€0m
AKR (0)
€0m
EA (0)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
AN (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
PAE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ENO (4)
€1m
AKR (3)
€1m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
PAE (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
AN (0)
€0m
Doxa and Ayia Napa have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Cyprus: 2. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →