The contest between Drenica Skënderaj and Prishtina is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home victory. Home win probability sits at 40%, a draw at 27%, and an away win at 33%. The expected total goals hover around 2.8, but the most likely total is two goals, occurring 25% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13% chance, reflecting the tight nature of the match.
Drenica, playing at home, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.6 conceded against similarly strong opposition. Prishtina, on the road, averages 0.92 goals scored and 1.75 conceded versus comparable teams. Drenica’s recent form shows a win-winning streak after a loss, while Prishtina is riding a two-game winning run.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.5%), Under 5.5 (93.3%), Home +2 handicap (85.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (84.9%), and Under 4.5 (84.3%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, offering a clear view of the most probable outcomes.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Drenica Skënderaj win
39.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Prishtina win
32.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Drenica Skënderaj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.50
1.62
1.44
1.00
1.57
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
1.45
1.83
1.17
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (19)
1.42
1.53
1.50
1.60
1.33
1.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Prishtina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Prishtina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.50
1.62
1.06
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.33
1.37
1.67
1.07
0.92
1.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
2.67
1.00
1.00
1.50
3.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Drenica Skënderaj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.5%
Under 1.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.7%
Under 2.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.4%
Under 3.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.3%
No
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.9%
1-0
7.7%
0-0
7.1%
0-1
6.7%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
5.9%
Drenica Skënderaj goals ↓
Prishtina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
6.7%
5.3%
2.3%
0.8%
1
7.7%
13%
7.9%
3.5%
1.2%
2
6.6%
8.8%
5.9%
2.6%
0.9%
3
3.3%
4.4%
2.9%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.2%
1.6%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Drenica Skënderaj goals (down), columns = Prishtina goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Drita
1.83
Malisheva
1.64
Ballkani
1.61
Drenica Skënderaj
1.43
Dukagjini
1.42
Gjilani
1.42
Llapi
1.41
Prishtina
1.36
Feronikeli
1.04
Vushtrria
0.45
Drenica Skënderaj is 0.07 points better than Prishtina in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ballkani
1.69
Malisheva
1.61
Prishtina
1.44
Drita
1.39
Drenica Skënderaj
1.31
Gjilani
1.31
Llapi
1.30
Dukagjini
1.17
Feronikeli
0.97
Vushtrria
0.42
Drenica Skënderaj is 0.13 goals worse than Prishtina in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Drita
0.97
Dukagjini
1.00
Ballkani
1.14
Gjilani
1.33
Llapi
1.35
Malisheva
1.39
Prishtina
1.42
Drenica Skënderaj
1.49
Feronikeli
1.68
Vushtrria
3.89
Drenica Skënderaj is 0.07 goals worse than Prishtina in terms of goals conceded per game (1.49 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Drenica Skënderaj or Draw
67.3%
Avg Implied -
40%
27%
33%
covers Drenica Skënderaj + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj or Prishtina
72.6%
Avg Implied -
40%
27%
33%
covers Drenica Skënderaj + Prishtina
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Prishtina
60.1%
Avg Implied -
40%
27%
33%
covers Draw + Prishtina
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 0.5
Over
77.6%
Under
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 1.5
Over
44.0%
Under
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 2.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 0.5
Over
73.6%
Under
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 1.5
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 2.5
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Drenica Skënderaj, so a minus line means Drenica Skënderaj give that many goals of a start and Prishtina receive them. At -1, Drenica Skënderaj must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Drenica Skënderaj win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Drenica Skënderaj)
Drenica Skënderaj -2
7.8%
Draw -2
12.2%
Prishtina +2
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Drenica Skënderaj)
Drenica Skënderaj -1
20.0%
Draw -1
19.9%
Prishtina +1
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Drenica Skënderaj)
Drenica Skënderaj +1
67.3%
Draw +1
17.7%
Prishtina -1
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Drenica Skënderaj)
Drenica Skënderaj +2
85.0%
Draw +2
9.7%
Prishtina -2
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Drenica Skënderaj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.62
0.50
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
0.45
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.63
0.80
0.60
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Prishtina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Prishtina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.81
0.50
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.74
0.80
0.53
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Drenica Skënderaj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.5%
Under 0.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.9%
Under 1.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.9%
Under 2.5
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.7%
Under
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.6%
Under
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Drenica Skënderaj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.93
1.00
0.94
0.64
0.93
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.83
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.89
0.70
1.00
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Prishtina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Prishtina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.81
0.56
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.63
0.87
0.53
0.42
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Drenica Skënderaj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.8%
Under 0.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.6%
Under 1.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.2%
Under 2.5
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.0%
Under
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.8%
Under
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.6%
Under
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (24)
€8m
BAL (26)
€7m
PRI (24)
€6m
MAL (19)
€5m
LLA (28)
€5m
GJI (16)
€4m
DUK (20)
€3m
FER (14)
€3m
DS (8)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
Drenica Skënderaj's squad is €6m less valuable than Prishtina's (€1m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PRI (10)
€4m
DRI (8)
€3m
BAL (7)
€3m
LLA (9)
€2m
GJI (6)
€2m
MAL (6)
€2m
DUK (7)
€2m
FER (7)
€1m
DS (5)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Drenica Skënderaj's attack is €3m less valuable than Prishtina's (€0m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (8)
€2m
DRI (5)
€2m
MAL (4)
€1m
LLA (7)
€1m
GJI (3)
€1m
PRI (3)
€1m
DUK (5)
€1m
FER (2)
€0m
DS (1)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Drenica Skënderaj and Prishtina have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (11)
€3m
PRI (11)
€2m
BAL (11)
€2m
MAL (9)
€2m
LLA (12)
€2m
GJI (7)
€2m
DUK (8)
€1m
FER (5)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
DS (2)
€0m
Drenica Skënderaj's defence is €2m less valuable than Prishtina's (€0m vs €2m).
Kosovo: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Malisheva
Gjilani
Drita
Ballkani
Dukagjini
Feronikeli
Vushtrria
Llapi