Drita’s strong home form, averaging 2.67 goals scored and only 0.83 conceded against weaker opposition, makes a home win the clear favourite, reflected in a 63% probability. The model’s pick is a Drita victory, and the expected total goals is 2.7, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 at 12%. The match is projected to be a low-scoring affair, with the most likely total of two goals at 25%. Drenica Skënderaj, playing away against a stronger side, averages only 0.4 goals scored and concedes 1.8, underscoring their disadvantage. The probabilities for the outcomes are 63% home win, 23% draw, and 14% away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.0%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Home +2 handicap (95.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.1%), Under 5.5 (94.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.0%) and Home or Draw (85.9%). Each selection carries its own percentage, with no overlap between outcome and other picks.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Drita win
62.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj win
14.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Drita
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.03
2.20
0.87
1.07
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.56
1.28
1.89
0.89
1.22
1.67
vs Weaker (12)
1.75
0.67
2.67
0.83
0.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Drenica Skënderaj) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drenica Skënderaj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.50
1.62
1.44
1.00
1.57
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
1.45
1.83
1.17
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (19)
1.42
1.53
1.50
1.60
1.33
1.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Drita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.6%
Under 2.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.5%
Under 3.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.6%
No
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.0%
1-0
11.4%
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
7.7%
0-0
7.5%
3-1
6.3%
0-1
4.2%
Drita goals ↓
Drenica Skënderaj goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
4.2%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
1
11%
11%
4.1%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
7.7%
6.3%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
4
3.7%
3.0%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Drita goals (down), columns = Drenica Skënderaj goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Drita
1.83
Malisheva
1.64
Ballkani
1.61
Drenica Skënderaj
1.43
Dukagjini
1.42
Gjilani
1.42
Llapi
1.41
Prishtina
1.36
Feronikeli
1.04
Vushtrria
0.45
Drita is 0.40 points better than Drenica Skënderaj in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ballkani
1.69
Malisheva
1.61
Prishtina
1.44
Drita
1.39
Drenica Skënderaj
1.31
Gjilani
1.31
Llapi
1.30
Dukagjini
1.17
Feronikeli
0.97
Vushtrria
0.42
Drita is 0.07 goals better than Drenica Skënderaj in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Drita
0.97
Dukagjini
1.00
Ballkani
1.14
Gjilani
1.33
Llapi
1.35
Malisheva
1.39
Prishtina
1.42
Drenica Skënderaj
1.49
Feronikeli
1.68
Vushtrria
3.89
Drita is 0.51 goals better than Drenica Skënderaj in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.49).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Drita or Draw
85.9%
Avg Implied -
63%
23%
14%
covers Drita + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drita or Drenica Skënderaj
76.7%
Avg Implied -
63%
23%
14%
covers Drita + Drenica Skënderaj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Drenica Skënderaj
37.4%
Avg Implied -
63%
23%
14%
covers Draw + Drenica Skënderaj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Drita over/under 0.5
Over
85.4%
Under
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drita over/under 1.5
Over
57.4%
Under
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drita over/under 2.5
Over
30.4%
Under
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drita over/under 3.5
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 0.5
Over
55.7%
Under
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 1.5
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 2.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Drita, so a minus line means Drita give that many goals of a start and Drenica Skënderaj receive them. At -1, Drita must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Drita win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Drita)
Drita -2
18.9%
Draw -2
19.6%
Drenica Skënderaj +2
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Drita)
Drita -1
38.5%
Draw -1
24.1%
Drenica Skënderaj +1
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Drita)
Drita +1
85.9%
Draw +1
9.6%
Drenica Skënderaj -1
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Drita)
Drita +2
95.5%
Draw +2
3.5%
Drenica Skënderaj -2
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Drita
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
1.07
0.53
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.61
1.00
0.44
0.44
0.78
vs Weaker (12)
0.67
0.58
1.17
0.67
0.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Drenica Skënderaj) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drenica Skënderaj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.62
0.50
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
0.45
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.63
0.80
0.60
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Drita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.6%
Under 0.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.6%
Under 1.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.8%
Under 2.5
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Drita over/under 0.5 HT
Over
59.0%
Under
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drita over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drita over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.9%
Under
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Drita
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.43
1.13
0.33
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.67
0.89
0.44
0.78
0.89
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.08
1.50
0.17
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Drenica Skënderaj) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drenica Skënderaj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.93
1.00
0.94
0.64
0.93
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.83
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.89
0.70
1.00
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Drita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.3%
Under 0.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.5%
Under 1.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.0%
Under 2.5
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Drita over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.0%
Under
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drita over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.4%
Under
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drita over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.7%
Under
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Drita · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Blerim Krasniqi29%
Arb Manaj29%
Albert Dabiqaj20%
Liridon Balaj11%
Almir Ajzeraj10%
Faton Maloku0%
Vesel Limaj0%
Jorgo Pëllumbi0%
Kristal Abazaj0%
Besnik Krasniqi0%
Egzon Bejtulai0%
Rron Broja0%
Blerton Sheji0%
Veton Tusha0%
Ilir Mustafa0%
Raddy Ovouka0%
Mamadou Soumahoro0%
Mike Arthur0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mamadou Soumahoro60%
Blerton Sheji38%
Jorgo Pëllumbi25%
Vesel Limaj22%
Egzon Bejtulai20%
Albert Dabiqaj20%
Ilir Mustafa20%
Blerim Krasniqi14%
Besnik Krasniqi10%
Raddy Ovouka10%
Faton Maloku0%
Kristal Abazaj0%
Rron Broja0%
Almir Ajzeraj0%
Liridon Balaj0%
Arb Manaj0%
Veton Tusha0%
Mike Arthur0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Liridon Balaj22%
Besnik Krasniqi20%
Blerton Sheji12%
Vesel Limaj11%
Faton Maloku0%
Jorgo Pëllumbi0%
Blerim Krasniqi0%
Kristal Abazaj0%
Egzon Bejtulai0%
Rron Broja0%
Almir Ajzeraj0%
Albert Dabiqaj0%
Arb Manaj0%
Veton Tusha0%
Ilir Mustafa0%
Raddy Ovouka0%
Mamadou Soumahoro0%
Mike Arthur0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Blerim Krasniqi29%
Veton Tusha20%
Mamadou Soumahoro20%
Jorgo Pëllumbi12%
Vesel Limaj11%
Almir Ajzeraj10%
Albert Dabiqaj10%
Faton Maloku0%
Kristal Abazaj0%
Besnik Krasniqi0%
Egzon Bejtulai0%
Rron Broja0%
Liridon Balaj0%
Blerton Sheji0%
Arb Manaj0%
Ilir Mustafa0%
Raddy Ovouka0%
Mike Arthur0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (24)
€8m
BAL (26)
€7m
PRI (24)
€6m
MAL (19)
€5m
LLA (28)
€5m
GJI (16)
€4m
DUK (20)
€3m
FER (14)
€3m
DS (8)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
Drita's squad is €8m more valuable than Drenica Skënderaj's (€8m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PRI (10)
€4m
DRI (8)
€3m
BAL (7)
€3m
LLA (9)
€2m
GJI (6)
€2m
MAL (6)
€2m
DUK (7)
€2m
FER (7)
€1m
DS (5)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Drita's attack is €2m more valuable than Drenica Skënderaj's (€3m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (8)
€2m
DRI (5)
€2m
MAL (4)
€1m
LLA (7)
€1m
GJI (3)
€1m
PRI (3)
€1m
DUK (5)
€1m
FER (2)
€0m
DS (1)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Drita's midfield is €2m more valuable than Drenica Skënderaj's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (11)
€3m
PRI (11)
€2m
BAL (11)
€2m
MAL (9)
€2m
LLA (12)
€2m
GJI (7)
€2m
DUK (8)
€1m
FER (5)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
DS (2)
€0m
Drita's defence is €3m more valuable than Drenica Skënderaj's (€3m vs €0m).
Kosovo: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Superliga stats & trends →