Drita is expected to win this match, with a 60% probability of a home victory. The match is likely to be closely contested, with a 24% chance of a draw and a 15% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely outcome being a 2-0 scoreline, which has a 26% probability. Drita has been strong at home, scoring an average of 1.88 goals and conceding just 0.12 goals per match against weaker opponents. Llapi, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, scoring 1.4 goals and conceding 1.2 goals per match against stronger opponents. The model suggests Over 1.5 goals with a 75.7% probability and Under 3.5 goals with a 72% probability. Drita's recent form has been mixed, coming off a win, while Llapi is on a 4-game winning run. The home win percentage is 60%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 15%. The model's selection for the match result is a Home win, while its selections are Over 1.5 goals and Under 3.5 goals.
Results analysis
The win extends Drita's run, with three consecutive victories. A high-scoring match unfolded, as the final score of 5-3 far exceeded the predicted 2.7 total goals and the most likely total of 2. The model's selection, a home win, proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 60%. The model's call was correct, as Drita secured the win. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 75.5%, while Under 3.5 goals missed, with a probability of 72.2%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Drita win✓ Hit
60.5%
Avg Implied 57.8% · @ 1.54
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.75
William Hil
1.55
Betano
1.55
Dafabet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied 25.3% · @ 3.52
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.75
Dafabet
3.70
Betano
3.60
Marathonbet
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Llapi win✗ Miss
15.2%
Avg Implied 16.9% · @ 5.26
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.20
Marathonbet
5.95
Bet365
5.50
Dafabet
5.40
Betano
5.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Drita
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.10
1.81
0.88
1.14
1.36
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.61
1.33
1.80
0.90
1.38
1.88
vs Weaker (11)
1.45
0.55
2.20
0.40
0.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Llapi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Llapi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.30
1.33
1.00
1.33
1.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (26)
1.46
1.27
1.43
0.93
1.50
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Drita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.5%
@ 1.30+5.2%
Under 1.5
24.5%
@ 3.08-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.10
1xBet
2.97
Marathonbet
2.97
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.7%
@ 1.97+3.6%
Under 2.5
50.3%
@ 1.69-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Under
Bet365
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.8%
@ 3.54+1.9%
Under 3.5
72.2%
@ 1.24-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
1xBet
3.48
Marathonbet
3.48
Under
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.2%
@ 1.96+2.2%
No
51.8%
@ 1.67-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
William Hil
2.00
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
1.85
No
10Bet
1.80
Betfair
1.73
William Hil
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.64
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.8%@ 6.23+5.0%
1-0
11.8%@ 5.44+4.0%
1-1
11.6%@ 6.66+5.2%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.89+4.3%
0-0
8.0%@ 8.10+2.8%
3-0
7.3%@ 10.37+3.2%
3-1
6.0%@ 13.14+2.7%
0-1
4.7%@ 11.87+1.1%
Drita goals ↓
Llapi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
4.7%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
1
12%
12%
4.3%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
7.3%
6.0%
2.4%
0.7%
0.1%
4
3.3%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Drita goals (down), columns = Llapi goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Drita
1.83
Malisheva
1.64
Ballkani
1.61
Drenica Skënderaj
1.43
Gjilani
1.42
Dukagjini
1.42
Llapi
1.41
Prishtina
1.36
Feronikeli
1.12
Vushtrria
0.44
Drita is 0.43 points better than Llapi in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ballkani
1.69
Malisheva
1.61
Prishtina
1.44
Drita
1.39
Drenica Skënderaj
1.31
Gjilani
1.31
Llapi
1.30
Dukagjini
1.17
Feronikeli
1.05
Vushtrria
0.41
Drita is 0.09 goals better than Llapi in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Drita
0.97
Dukagjini
1.00
Ballkani
1.14
Gjilani
1.33
Llapi
1.35
Malisheva
1.39
Prishtina
1.42
Drenica Skënderaj
1.49
Feronikeli
1.55
Vushtrria
3.94
Drita is 0.38 goals better than Llapi in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Drita or Draw✓ Hit
84.8%
Avg Implied -
60%
24%
15%
covers Drita + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drita or Llapi✓ Hit
75.6%
Avg Implied -
60%
24%
15%
covers Drita + Llapi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Llapi✗ Miss
39.5%
Avg Implied -
60%
24%
15%
covers Draw + Llapi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Drita
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.88
0.56
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.72
0.90
0.60
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.45
1.00
0.40
0.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Llapi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Llapi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.73
0.33
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.46
0.79
0.36
0.83
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Drita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Drita over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drita over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drita over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Drita
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.94
0.31
0.79
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.61
0.90
0.30
0.88
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
0.91
0.09
1.20
0.00
0.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Llapi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Llapi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.60
0.67
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.81
0.64
0.57
0.67
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Drita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Drita over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drita over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drita over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home or Draw
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.5%
1.30
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.2%
1.24
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-1.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Drita · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Blerim Krasniqi29%
Arb Manaj29%
Albert Dabiqaj20%
Liridon Balaj11%
Almir Ajzeraj10%
Faton Maloku0%
Vesel Limaj0%
Jorgo Pëllumbi0%
Kristal Abazaj0%
Besnik Krasniqi0%
Egzon Bejtulai0%
Rron Broja0%
Blerton Sheji0%
Veton Tusha0%
Ilir Mustafa0%
Raddy Ovouka0%
Mamadou Soumahoro0%
Mike Arthur0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mamadou Soumahoro60%
Blerton Sheji38%
Jorgo Pëllumbi25%
Vesel Limaj22%
Egzon Bejtulai20%
Albert Dabiqaj20%
Ilir Mustafa20%
Blerim Krasniqi14%
Besnik Krasniqi10%
Raddy Ovouka10%
Faton Maloku0%
Kristal Abazaj0%
Rron Broja0%
Almir Ajzeraj0%
Liridon Balaj0%
Arb Manaj0%
Veton Tusha0%
Mike Arthur0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Liridon Balaj22%
Besnik Krasniqi20%
Blerton Sheji12%
Vesel Limaj11%
Faton Maloku0%
Jorgo Pëllumbi0%
Blerim Krasniqi0%
Kristal Abazaj0%
Egzon Bejtulai0%
Rron Broja0%
Almir Ajzeraj0%
Albert Dabiqaj0%
Arb Manaj0%
Veton Tusha0%
Ilir Mustafa0%
Raddy Ovouka0%
Mamadou Soumahoro0%
Mike Arthur0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Blerim Krasniqi29%
Veton Tusha20%
Mamadou Soumahoro20%
Jorgo Pëllumbi12%
Vesel Limaj11%
Almir Ajzeraj10%
Albert Dabiqaj10%
Faton Maloku0%
Kristal Abazaj0%
Besnik Krasniqi0%
Egzon Bejtulai0%
Rron Broja0%
Liridon Balaj0%
Blerton Sheji0%
Arb Manaj0%
Ilir Mustafa0%
Raddy Ovouka0%
Mike Arthur0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (24)
€8m
BAL (26)
€7m
PRI (24)
€6m
MAL (19)
€5m
LLA (28)
€5m
GJI (16)
€4m
DUK (20)
€3m
FER (14)
€3m
DS (8)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
Drita's squad is €4m more valuable than Llapi's (€8m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PRI (10)
€4m
DRI (8)
€3m
BAL (7)
€3m
LLA (9)
€2m
GJI (6)
€2m
MAL (6)
€2m
DUK (7)
€2m
FER (7)
€1m
DS (5)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Drita and Llapi have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (8)
€2m
DRI (5)
€2m
MAL (4)
€1m
LLA (7)
€1m
GJI (3)
€1m
PRI (3)
€1m
DUK (5)
€1m
FER (2)
€0m
DS (1)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Drita's midfield is €1m more valuable than Llapi's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (11)
€3m
PRI (11)
€2m
BAL (11)
€2m
MAL (9)
€2m
LLA (12)
€2m
GJI (7)
€2m
DUK (8)
€1m
FER (5)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
DS (2)
€0m
Drita's defence is €1m more valuable than Llapi's (€3m vs €2m).
Kosovo: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Malisheva
Gjilani
Prishtina
Ballkani
Dukagjini
Drenica Skënderaj
Feronikeli
Vushtrria