Dubočica are favoured to win, with a 48% chance of triumph, 28% for a draw and 24% for Grafičar. The model expects 2.6 goals on average, most likely a 2-goal total at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.3% probability. Dubočica, playing at home against a stronger opponent, have averaged 3.0 goals scored and 5.0 conceded, while Grafičar, on the road against a weaker side, average 2.0 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with a 74.3% chance and Over 1.5 with a 73.9% chance. Dubočica’s recent form shows a win after a 4-1 victory over Grafičar, while Grafičar come off two straight defeats, losing 1-4 to Dubočica. The predicted outcome aligns with the home side’s stronger offensive output and the away side’s defensive fragility, making the 1-1 scoreline a realistic possibility.
Results analysis
The win extends Dubočica’s recent form, coming off a 4-1 triumph over Grafičar. The model’s favourite, a home win, was right as Dubočica edged 2-1. With a 48% probability, the prediction was spot on. The model also called Under 3.5 goals at 74.3% and Over 1.5 at 73.9%, both of which hit. The match delivered the expected 2-1 scoreline, matching the most likely 1-1, 1-0 or 2-1 outcomes. Dubočica’s home advantage and stronger opposition proved decisive, while Grafičar’s away form, having suffered two straight defeats, fell short. The model’s selections largely came through, confirming its accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dubočica win✓ Hit
48.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grafičar win✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dubočica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.12
1.00
1.57
1.14
0.78
0.89
vs Stronger (2)
2.50
3.00
3.00
5.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.71
1.33
0.50
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grafičar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.40
1.73
1.27
0.80
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.78
1.67
1.33
1.83
0.50
1.58
vs Weaker (12)
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.89
2.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.9%
Under 1.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.4%
Under 2.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.7%
Under 3.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.7%
No
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
10.6%
2-1 ✓
9.4%
2-0
9.1%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
6.2%
2-2
4.8%
Dubočica goals ↓
Grafičar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
6.7%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
1
11%
13%
6.2%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.1%
9.4%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.7%
4.8%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dubočica goals (down), columns = Grafičar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
OFK Beograd
1.97
Jedinstvo Ub
1.81
Indjija
1.59
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.54
Semendrija 1924
1.51
OFK Vršac
1.43
Macva
1.38
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
1.35
Dubočica
1.35
Grafičar
1.30
Mladost Novi Sad
1.24
Sloboda Uzice
1.24
Metalac GM
1.22
Kolubara
1.16
RFK Novi Sad
0.84
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.70
Dubočica is 0.05 points better than Grafičar in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
OFK Beograd
1.70
Grafičar
1.38
Jedinstvo Ub
1.38
Indjija
1.24
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.19
Kolubara
1.14
Semendrija 1924
1.08
RFK Novi Sad
1.00
Macva
0.97
Mladost Novi Sad
0.95
Sloboda Uzice
0.92
OFK Vršac
0.89
Dubočica
0.89
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.86
Metalac GM
0.86
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
0.81
Dubočica is 0.49 goals worse than Grafičar in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tekstilac Odžaci
0.73
Macva
0.78
OFK Vršac
0.84
Semendrija 1924
0.84
OFK Beograd
0.86
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
0.86
Indjija
0.95
Metalac GM
1.03
Mladost Novi Sad
1.03
Dubočica
1.03
Jedinstvo Ub
1.05
Sloboda Uzice
1.05
Kolubara
1.24
Grafičar
1.46
RFK Novi Sad
1.68
Radnički Novi Beograd
1.84
Dubočica is 0.43 goals better than Grafičar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dubočica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.31
0.50
0.43
0.57
0.22
0.44
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.21
0.43
0.33
0.33
0.12
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grafičar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.73
0.80
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.72
0.67
1.17
0.08
0.50
vs Weaker (12)
0.83
0.75
0.78
0.56
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dubočica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dubočica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.81
0.50
1.14
0.57
0.56
0.44
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
2.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.29
1.00
0.17
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grafičar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
1.00
0.47
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.94
0.67
0.67
0.42
1.08
vs Weaker (12)
1.17
0.25
1.22
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dubočica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (28)
€18m
MAC (19)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
DUB (17)
€1m
Dubočica's squad is €2m less valuable than Grafičar's (€1m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (10)
€6m
MAC (7)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
Dubočica and Grafičar have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (8)
€4m
OV (4)
€1m
MAC (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
DUB (2)
€0m
Dubočica and Grafičar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (10)
€8m
GRA (8)
€2m
MAC (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
Dubočica's defence is €1m less valuable than Grafičar's (€1m vs €2m).
Serbia: Prva Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →