The model favours an away win, with Javor winning 50% of the time, a draw 27%, and Dubočica 23%. The expected total goals hover at 2.7, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.8% chance. Dubočica, playing at home, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.93 conceded against similar opposition, while Javor on the road scores 1.2 and concedes 1.5. The recent form shows Dubočica struggling after two straight defeats, losing 0-2 to Borac Čačak, whereas Javor has just drawn 2-2 with Spartak. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 5.5 (94.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.3%), Away +2 handicap (91.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.0%), and Under 4.5 (86.2%). These picks reflect a low-scoring affair with Javor likely to edge out Dubočica.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dubočica win
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Javor win
48.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dubočica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.63
1.07
1.00
1.19
2.19
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
2.25
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.56
1.08
1.00
1.08
2.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Javor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Javor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.37
1.47
0.88
1.08
2.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
2.12
0.80
1.20
0.67
3.67
vs Similar (21)
1.33
1.10
1.45
0.73
1.20
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.1%
Under 1.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.4%
Under 2.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.4%
Under 3.5
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.9%
No
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
8.9%
0-0
8.0%
2-1
6.3%
1-0
6.1%
1-3
5.1%
Dubočica goals ↓
Javor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
9.8%
8.9%
4.8%
1.9%
1
6.1%
13%
9.5%
5.1%
2.1%
2
3.9%
6.3%
5.1%
2.8%
1.1%
3
1.4%
2.3%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dubočica goals (down), columns = Javor goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Dubočica is 0.17 points worse than Javor in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Dubočica is 1.00 goals worse than Javor in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Dubočica is 0.17 goals worse than Javor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dubočica or Draw
51.1%
Avg Implied -
24%
27%
49%
covers Dubočica + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dubočica or Javor
72.9%
Avg Implied -
24%
27%
49%
covers Dubočica + Javor
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Javor
76.0%
Avg Implied -
24%
27%
49%
covers Draw + Javor
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dubočica over/under 0.5
Over
65.8%
Under
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 1.5
Over
29.1%
Under
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 2.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 0.5
Over
80.2%
Under
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 1.5
Over
48.1%
Under
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 2.5
Over
22.1%
Under
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 3.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dubočica, so a minus line means Dubočica give that many goals of a start and Javor receive them. At -1, Dubočica must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dubočica win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dubočica)
Dubočica -2
2.8%
Draw -2
6.7%
Javor +2
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dubočica)
Dubočica -1
9.5%
Draw -1
14.5%
Javor +1
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dubočica)
Dubočica +1
51.1%
Draw +1
22.5%
Javor -1
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dubočica)
Dubočica +2
73.6%
Draw +2
15.3%
Javor -2
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dubočica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.79
0.21
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.28
0.85
0.23
0.58
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Javor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Javor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.82
0.12
0.54
1.08
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.75
0.60
0.20
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.43
0.73
0.00
0.50
0.90
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dubočica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dubočica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.23
0.29
0.79
0.62
1.62
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.36
1.28
0.23
0.77
0.50
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Javor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Javor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.65
0.76
0.54
0.92
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.38
0.20
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.67
0.73
0.73
0.70
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dubočica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Javor · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Herve Toure29%
Bayere Loue26%
Aleksa Radonjić21%
Petar Petrović12%
Boubacari Doucoure11%
Benjamin Acquah8%
Mateja Zuvić8%
Lazar Mićić8%
Ognjen Krsmanović7%
Mass Sise7%
Stefan Vilotic5%
Dušan Pantelić5%
Ibrahim Tanko4%
Nemanja Đokić3%
Kayode Saliman3%
Marko Bjeković3%
Mamane Amadou Sabo3%
Đorđe Skoko3%
Nikola Vasiljević0%
Nemanja Krstić0%
Stefan Milošević0%
Milan Ilić0%
Dimitrije Stevanović0%
Andreja Ristić0%
Dušan Ristić0%
Martin Andjelkovic0%
Petar Đoković0%
Boasiako Francis Antwi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefan Vilotic33%
Mamane Amadou Sabo27%
Boubacari Doucoure23%
Petar Petrović21%
Benjamin Acquah17%
Đorđe Skoko17%
Stefan Milošević16%
Mateja Zuvić15%
Herve Toure14%
Ognjen Krsmanović14%
Aleksa Radonjić14%
Kayode Saliman13%
Milan Ilić12%
Dušan Pantelić9%
Ibrahim Tanko8%
Lazar Mićić8%
Mass Sise7%
Petar Đoković7%
Bayere Loue6%
Marko Bjeković6%
Nikola Vasiljević3%
Nemanja Đokić3%
Nemanja Krstić0%
Dimitrije Stevanović0%
Andreja Ristić0%
Dušan Ristić0%
Martin Andjelkovic0%
Boasiako Francis Antwi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marko Bjeković15%
Herve Toure14%
Lazar Mićić12%
Kayode Saliman10%
Stefan Vilotic10%
Mamane Amadou Sabo9%
Petar Đoković7%
Bayere Loue6%
Petar Petrović6%
Boubacari Doucoure6%
Dušan Pantelić5%
Stefan Milošević4%
Aleksa Radonjić3%
Nemanja Đokić3%
Đorđe Skoko3%
Nikola Vasiljević0%
Nemanja Krstić0%
Ibrahim Tanko0%
Milan Ilić0%
Mateja Zuvić0%
Dimitrije Stevanović0%
Benjamin Acquah0%
Mass Sise0%
Andreja Ristić0%
Dušan Ristić0%
Ognjen Krsmanović0%
Martin Andjelkovic0%
Boasiako Francis Antwi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aleksa Radonjić17%
Herve Toure14%
Ognjen Krsmanović14%
Bayere Loue10%
Kayode Saliman10%
Benjamin Acquah8%
Nemanja Đokić7%
Lazar Mićić4%
Marko Bjeković3%
Petar Petrović3%
Boubacari Doucoure3%
Nikola Vasiljević0%
Dušan Pantelić0%
Nemanja Krstić0%
Ibrahim Tanko0%
Stefan Milošević0%
Stefan Vilotic0%
Milan Ilić0%
Mateja Zuvić0%
Dimitrije Stevanović0%
Mamane Amadou Sabo0%
Mass Sise0%
Andreja Ristić0%
Dušan Ristić0%
Đorđe Skoko0%
Martin Andjelkovic0%
Petar Đoković0%
Boasiako Francis Antwi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (24)
€10m
NAP (24)
€7m
JAV (21)
€5m
FSZ (21)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
OB1 (17)
€2m
DUB (17)
€1m
TEL (7)
€1m
Dubočica's squad is €4m less valuable than Javor's (€1m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (9)
€5m
JAV (9)
€2m
NAP (9)
€2m
FSZ (8)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
OB1 (6)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Dubočica's attack is €1m less valuable than Javor's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (4)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
JAV (2)
€1m
FSZ (4)
€1m
NAP (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
OB1 (3)
€0m
TEL (1)
€0m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
Dubočica and Javor have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAP (12)
€5m
TBT (11)
€4m
JAV (10)
€3m
FSZ (9)
€2m
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
OB1 (8)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Dubočica's defence is €2m less valuable than Javor's (€1m vs €3m).
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →
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Borac Cacak
Semendrija 1924
TSC Backa Topola
OFK Vršac
Napredak
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Loznica
FK Vozdovac
Teleoptik
OFK Bor 1919
Naftagas
Metalac GM
Jedinstvo Ub
Grafičar