Dubočica and Loznica face off in Serbia's Prva Liga, with the most recent storyline being Dubočica's win over FK Vozdovac. Loznica, however, has been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, drawing against Naftagas.
Defensively, Dubočica has been conceding 1 goal on average at home, while Loznica has been conceding 0.91 goals on average away from home against similar opponents. Dubočica has been scoring 1.17 goals on average at home, and Loznica has been scoring 1.18 goals on average away from home against similar opponents.
The model projects a low-scoring match, with an expected total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 14.9%. The model's selection is the Draw, with probabilities of 32% for Dubočica to win, 34% for a draw, and 34% for Loznica to win. The model also suggests an Under 3.5 goals match, with an 85.6% probability, and a 5% edge.
Results analysis
The win extends Dubočtica's run of draws, as they shared the spoils with Loznica for the second time this season, the final score being 0-0. The model's selection, a draw, was correct, with the pre-match probability of 34% coming to fruition. Dubočtica were not the favourites, Loznica being the model's pick with a pre-match probability of 34%. The model's selection of a draw hit, while the pick of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 85.6%. The model's call on the most likely total goals of 2 was incorrect, as the actual total was 0.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dubočica win✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied 34.2% · @ 2.63
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
2.75
Betfair
2.70
Marathonbet
2.69
1xBet
2.69
Betano
2.67
Draw✓ Hit
33.5%
Avg Implied 30.8% · @ 2.93
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.00
Betano
3.00
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Dafabet
2.95
Loznica win✗ Miss
34.4%
Avg Implied 35.0% · @ 2.57
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.85
Superbet
2.82
William Hil
2.62
BetVictor
2.55
10Bet
2.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dubočica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.63
1.13
0.93
0.93
2.33
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.56
1.15
0.92
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Loznica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Loznica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.12
0.44
1.07
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.14
0.66
1.20
0.47
1.07
0.86
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
60.9%
@ 1.46-1.8%
Under 1.5
39.1%
@ 2.44+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
1xBet
1.43
Under
BetVictor
2.50
1xBet
2.46
Pinnacle
2.46
Marathonbet
2.46
Superbet
2.45
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.5%
@ 2.44-5.1%
Under 2.5
67.5%
@ 1.47+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Superbet
2.50
1xBet
2.46
Marathonbet
2.46
Under
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
BetVictor
1.47
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.4%
@ 4.82-4.5%
Under 3.5
85.6%
@ 1.12+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.85
Superbet
4.75
Under
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.4%
@ 2.03-3.7%
No
58.6%
@ 1.67+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.10
BetVictor
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
William Hil
2.00
No
William Hil
1.70
1xBet
1.68
BetVictor
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.9%@ 5.61+7.4%
0-0 ✓
14.8%@ 6.39+8.2%
0-1
12.5%@ 6.39+5.8%
1-0
11.8%@ 6.31+5.2%
0-2
7.1%@ 11.00+3.2%
1-2
6.9%@ 9.86+2.6%
2-1
6.6%@ 9.87+2.3%
2-0
6.5%@ 10.90+2.6%
Dubočica goals ↓
Loznica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
12%
7.1%
2.4%
0.6%
1
12%
15%
6.9%
2.4%
0.6%
2
6.5%
6.6%
3.4%
1.2%
0.3%
3
2.1%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dubočica goals (down), columns = Loznica goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Dubočica is 0.50 points better than Loznica in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Dubočica is 0.17 goals better than Loznica in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Dubočica and Loznica are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dubočica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.87
0.27
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.40
0.92
0.23
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Loznica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Loznica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.23
0.50
0.12
0.43
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.48
0.24
0.53
0.13
0.43
0.36
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
80% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dubočica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dubočica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.10
0.27
0.67
0.33
1.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.28
1.16
0.23
0.69
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Loznica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Loznica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.62
0.31
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.66
0.41
0.67
0.33
0.64
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dubočica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
85.6%
1.12
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (24)
€10m
NAP (24)
€7m
JAV (21)
€5m
FSZ (21)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
OB1 (17)
€2m
DUB (17)
€1m
TEL (7)
€1m
Dubočica's squad is €2m less valuable than Loznica's (€1m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (9)
€5m
JAV (9)
€2m
NAP (9)
€2m
FSZ (8)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
OB1 (6)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Dubočica and Loznica have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (4)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
JAV (2)
€1m
FSZ (4)
€1m
NAP (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
OB1 (3)
€0m
TEL (1)
€0m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
Dubočica and Loznica have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAP (12)
€5m
TBT (11)
€4m
JAV (10)
€3m
FSZ (9)
€2m
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
OB1 (8)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Dubočica and Loznica have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Borac Cacak
Semendrija 1924
TSC Backa Topola
OFK Vršac
Javor
Napredak
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FK Vozdovac
Teleoptik
OFK Bor 1919
Naftagas
Metalac GM
Jedinstvo Ub
Grafičar