Defensive solidity is the headline, with Dukagjini’s home form showing 1.25 goals conceded per game and Feronikeli’s away form boasting only 0.58. The model favours a Dukagjini win, 46 % of the time, followed by a 33 % chance of a draw and a 22 % chance of a Feronikeli victory. The average goal count sits at 2.0, with the most likely total of two goals at 28 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Dukagjini, a 15.7 % probability. Dukagjini averages 0.75 goals scored at home against similar opposition, while Feronikeli nets 1.5 away and concedes just 0.58. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.3 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.3 %), Under 5.5 (98.5 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.5 %) and Away under 2.5 goals (95.9 %). The recent form notes that Dukagjini remain unbeaten in five games, while Feronikeli have won three of their last five after two losses.
Results analysis
The win extends Dukagjini’s unbeaten run, keeping their home form intact. The model’s favourite, a Home win, was correct, as the final score was 1-0. The pre-match probability for a Dukagjini victory was 46 %. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.9 %, Under 6.5 hit at 99.6 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.3 %, Under 5.5 hit at 98.5 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.5 %, and Away under 2.5 goals hit at 95.9 %. All predictions came in, confirming the model’s strong performance.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dukagjini win✓ Hit
45.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli win✗ Miss
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dukagjini
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.93
0.93
0.86
1.06
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
1.00
0.25
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.91
0.90
1.10
1.15
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Feronikeli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feronikeli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.67
1.94
0.62
1.57
0.71
vs Stronger (6)
1.67
0.83
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.91
0.59
2.18
0.64
1.64
0.55
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukagjini) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
59.8%
Under 1.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
31.4%
Under 2.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.7%
Under 3.5
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.5%
No
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
15.7%
0-0
15.3%
1-1
14.1%
2-0
10.3%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
4.8%
3-0
4.2%
Dukagjini goals ↓
Feronikeli goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
9.2%
4.0%
1.0%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
4.8%
1.2%
0.2%
2
10%
7.8%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
3
4.2%
3.1%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dukagjini goals (down), columns = Feronikeli goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Drita
1.83
Malisheva
1.64
Ballkani
1.61
Drenica Skënderaj
1.43
Dukagjini
1.42
Gjilani
1.42
Llapi
1.41
Prishtina
1.36
Feronikeli
1.04
Vushtrria
0.45
Dukagjini is 0.38 points better than Feronikeli in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.04).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ballkani
1.69
Malisheva
1.61
Prishtina
1.44
Drita
1.39
Drenica Skënderaj
1.31
Gjilani
1.31
Llapi
1.30
Dukagjini
1.17
Feronikeli
0.97
Vushtrria
0.42
Dukagjini is 0.20 goals better than Feronikeli in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Drita
0.97
Dukagjini
1.00
Ballkani
1.14
Gjilani
1.33
Llapi
1.35
Malisheva
1.39
Prishtina
1.42
Drenica Skënderaj
1.49
Feronikeli
1.68
Vushtrria
3.89
Dukagjini is 0.68 goals better than Feronikeli in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dukagjini or Draw✓ Hit
78.3%
Avg Implied -
46%
33%
22%
covers Dukagjini + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini or Feronikeli✓ Hit
67.4%
Avg Implied -
46%
33%
22%
covers Dukagjini + Feronikeli
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Feronikeli✗ Miss
54.2%
Avg Implied -
46%
33%
22%
covers Draw + Feronikeli
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dukagjini over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.3%
Under
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.3%
Under
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dukagjini, so a minus line means Dukagjini give that many goals of a start and Feronikeli receive them. At -1, Dukagjini must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dukagjini win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dukagjini)Actual: Feronikeli
Dukagjini -2
7.2%
Draw -2
13.8%
Feronikeli +2
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dukagjini)Actual: Draw
Dukagjini -1
21.0%
Draw -1
24.7%
Feronikeli +1
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dukagjini)Actual: Dukagjini
Dukagjini +1
78.3%
Draw +1
14.9%
Feronikeli -1
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dukagjini)Actual: Dukagjini
Dukagjini +2
93.2%
Draw +2
5.3%
Feronikeli -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dukagjini
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.33
0.43
0.21
0.44
0.44
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.14
0.50
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.39
0.40
0.30
0.46
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Feronikeli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feronikeli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.27
0.73
0.20
0.60
0.33
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.25
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.24
0.90
0.20
0.64
0.27
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukagjini) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.9%
Under 0.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.5%
Under 1.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.4%
Under 2.5
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dukagjini over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
57.7%
Under
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
31.6%
Under
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dukagjini
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.50
0.64
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.50
0.25
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.52
0.50
0.80
0.69
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Feronikeli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feronikeli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.37
1.13
0.40
0.87
0.33
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
0.29
1.00
0.25
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (21)
1.10
0.33
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.27
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukagjini) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
77.5%
Under 0.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.9%
Under 1.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.8%
Under 2.5
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dukagjini over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
60.0%
Under
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
23.5%
Under
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
40.7%
Under
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (24)
€8m
BAL (26)
€7m
PRI (24)
€6m
MAL (19)
€5m
LLA (28)
€5m
GJI (16)
€4m
DUK (20)
€3m
FER (14)
€3m
DS (8)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
Dukagjini and Feronikeli have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PRI (10)
€4m
DRI (8)
€3m
BAL (7)
€3m
LLA (9)
€2m
GJI (6)
€2m
MAL (6)
€2m
DUK (7)
€2m
FER (7)
€1m
DS (5)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Dukagjini and Feronikeli have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (8)
€2m
DRI (5)
€2m
MAL (4)
€1m
LLA (7)
€1m
GJI (3)
€1m
PRI (3)
€1m
DUK (5)
€1m
FER (2)
€0m
DS (1)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Dukagjini and Feronikeli have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (11)
€3m
PRI (11)
€2m
BAL (11)
€2m
MAL (9)
€2m
LLA (12)
€2m
GJI (7)
€2m
DUK (8)
€1m
FER (5)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
DS (2)
€0m
Dukagjini and Feronikeli have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Kosovo: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Superliga stats & trends →