Dukagjini vs Gjilani Result & Analysis

Dukagjini’s defensive record at home, conceding only 0.89 goals on average, sets the tone for a tight affair, while Gjilani’s away defense has allowed 1.27 goals per game. The model favours a home win, with a 39% chance, a 32% chance of a draw, and a 29% chance of an away victory. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7% chance. Dukagjini’s home form shows 1.44 goals scored and 0.89 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Gjilani’s away form yields 1.0 scored and 1.27 conceded. The model’s selection, Under 3.5, carries an 83.7% probability and has already hit. Both sides have been unbeaten in their last five matches, each ending 2-2 in their most recent meeting.

The win for Dukagjini extended their unbeaten run, yet the pre-match favourite - a home win at 39% - failed to materialise as Gjilani snatched a 1-0 victory. The model’s call was wrong, but its single suggestion, Under 3.5 goals at 83.7%, proved accurate. Both sides had been unbeaten in their last five, with Dukagjini’s recent form noted as “unbeaten in their last 5” and Gjilani’s also “unbeaten in their last 5.” The final score of 0-1 confirmed an away win, contradicting the model’s 39% home-win probability. The Under 3.5 pick hit, while the predicted home win missed.