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Dukagjini vs Gjilani Result & Analysis

Date: 25/08/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 2-1
Dukagjini
Dukagjini
Vs
34%
33%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gjilani
Gjilani
Kosovo: Superliga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, with Dukagjini’s home side averaging just 0.78 goals conceded and Gjilani’s away side allowing 1.08 on the road. Both clubs have been unbeaten in their last five, each ending a 2-2 draw with the same opponent, hinting at a tight, low-scoring affair. The model favours a Dukagjini victory, assigning a 34% chance to a home win, 33% to a draw and 33% to an away win. The expected total is 2.1 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals carrying a 28% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.8% chance. Dukagjini typically scores 1.11 goals per home game against similar opposition, while Gjilani averages 1.54 away. The model’s selection under 3.5 goals carries an 83.6% probability of hitting.

Results analysis

The match saw Dukagjini maintain their unbeaten streak, extending it with a 2-1 win over Gjilani. The model’s favourite was a home win, with a 34% probability, and it proved correct. The predicted most likely total of two goals came true, and the model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals, at an 83.6% chance, hit. The final score of 2-1 matched the actual result, confirming the home advantage forecast. Dukagjini’s recent form, noted as unbeaten in their last five, and Gjilani’s similar unbeaten run both set the stage for a tight contest that ended in the predicted manner.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dukagjini win✓ Hit
34.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gjilani win✗ Miss
33.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DukagjiniDukagjini

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D11D03L21W10W23L24L02L13LH·LLA14/04A·LIR20/04H·DRI28/04A·BAL05/05A·FUS09/05H·PRI12/05A·FER18/05H·GJI25/05A·BAL11/08A·SUH17/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.431.000.771.121.94
vs Stronger (7)0.571.861.001.000.252.50
vs Similar (20)1.151.451.110.781.182.00
vs Weaker (3)1.670.330.000.002.500.50
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Gjilani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GjilaniGjilani

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W11D02L00D11D31W21W42W11D11DA·PRI13/04H·FER20/04H·BAL28/04A·MAL05/05H·LLA09/05A·LIR12/05H·DRI18/05A·DUK25/05A·LLA10/08H·BAL19/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.071.271.001.401.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.311.121.081.151.541.08
vs Weaker (4)1.500.752.500.000.501.50
Clean sheet %23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukagjini) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.7%
Under 1.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.4%
Under 2.5
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.4%
Under 3.5
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.9%
No
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.4%
1-0
11.5%
0-1
11.3%
2-1 ✓
7.2%
1-2
7.1%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.7%
Dukagjini goals ↓
Gjilani goals →
01234
013%11%6.7%2.3%0.6%
112%15%7.1%2.5%0.7%
26.8%7.2%3.8%1.3%0.3%
32.4%2.5%1.3%0.5%0.1%
40.6%0.7%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dukagjini goals (down), columns = Gjilani goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Drita
2.06
Ballkani
1.67
Malisheva
1.47
Gjilani
1.42
Ferizaj
1.39
Prishtina
1.33
Dukagjini
1.33
Llapi
1.30
Suhareka
1.19
Vushtrria
1.00
Feronikeli
0.44
Dukagjini is 0.08 points worse than Gjilani in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Ballkani
1.64
Drita
1.64
Suhareka
1.36
Gjilani
1.33
Malisheva
1.22
Prishtina
1.17
Ferizaj
1.17
Llapi
1.14
Dukagjini
0.97
Feronikeli
0.69
Vushtrria
0.00
Dukagjini is 0.36 goals worse than Gjilani in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Vushtrria
0.00
Drita
0.72
Prishtina
1.00
Malisheva
1.08
Llapi
1.11
Ballkani
1.11
Dukagjini
1.25
Ferizaj
1.31
Gjilani
1.31
Suhareka
1.72
Feronikeli
1.72
Dukagjini is 0.06 goals better than Gjilani in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.31).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DukagjiniDukagjini

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D01L02L20W00D12L21W01L00DH·LLA14/04A·LIR20/04H·DRI28/04A·BAL05/05A·FUS09/05H·PRI12/05A·FER18/05H·GJI25/05A·BAL11/08A·SUH17/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.670.310.460.350.82
vs Stronger (7)0.141.000.001.000.251.00
vs Similar (20)0.300.650.440.330.180.91
vs Weaker (3)1.000.000.000.001.500.00
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Gjilani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GjilaniGjilani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D00D00D00D11D10W12L00D11DA·PRI13/04H·FER20/04H·BAL28/04A·MAL05/05H·LLA09/05A·LIR12/05H·DRI18/05A·DUK25/05A·LLA10/08H·BAL19/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.430.400.330.600.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.520.480.460.380.570.57
vs Weaker (3)0.330.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukagjini) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dukagjini over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gjilani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gjilani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gjilani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DukagjiniDukagjini

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D10W01L01L10W11D03L01L13LH·LLA14/04A·LIR20/04H·DRI28/04A·BAL05/05A·FUS09/05H·PRI12/05A·FER18/05H·GJI25/05A·BAL11/08A·SUH17/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.770.690.310.761.12
vs Stronger (7)0.430.861.000.000.001.50
vs Similar (20)0.850.800.670.441.001.09
vs Weaker (3)0.670.330.000.001.000.50
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Gjilani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GjilaniGjilani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W00D02L00D11D20W11D30W11D00DA·PRI13/04H·FER20/04H·BAL28/04A·MAL05/05H·LLA09/05A·LIR12/05H·DRI18/05A·DUK25/05A·LLA10/08H·BAL19/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.670.730.730.800.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.670.700.460.850.860.57
vs Weaker (3)1.670.332.500.000.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukagjini) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dukagjini over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gjilani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gjilani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gjilani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (24)
€8m
BAL (26)
€7m
PRI (24)
€6m
MAL (19)
€5m
LLA (28)
€5m
GJI (16)
€4m
DUK (20)
€3m
FER (14)
€3m
VUS (3)
€0m
Dukagjini's squad is €1m less valuable than Gjilani's (€3m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PRI (10)
€4m
DRI (8)
€3m
BAL (7)
€3m
LLA (9)
€2m
GJI (6)
€2m
MAL (6)
€2m
DUK (7)
€2m
FER (7)
€1m
VUS (0)
€0m
Dukagjini and Gjilani have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (8)
€2m
DRI (5)
€2m
MAL (4)
€1m
LLA (7)
€1m
GJI (3)
€1m
PRI (3)
€1m
DUK (5)
€1m
FER (2)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Dukagjini and Gjilani have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (11)
€3m
PRI (11)
€2m
BAL (11)
€2m
MAL (9)
€2m
LLA (12)
€2m
GJI (7)
€2m
DUK (8)
€1m
FER (5)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
Dukagjini and Gjilani have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
DUK wins
2
Draws
5
GJI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dukagjini vs Gjilani · H/A from DUK
DateH/AGameScore
25/05/24HDUK Vs Gjilani2-4
31/03/24AGjilani Vs DUK1-1
16/12/23HDUK Vs Gjilani1-0
07/10/23AGjilani Vs DUK1-1
03/05/23AGjilani Vs DUK2-0
04/03/23HDUK Vs Gjilani0-1
30/10/22AGjilani Vs DUK1-0
04/09/22HDUK Vs Gjilani0-1

DukagjiniDukagjini

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/24ASuhareka Vs DUK3-1
11/08/24ABallkani Vs DUK2-0
25/05/24HDUK Vs Gjilani2-4
18/05/24AFeronikeli Vs DUK3-2
12/05/24HDUK Vs Prishtina1-0
09/05/24AFushë Kosova Vs DUK1-2
05/05/24ABallkani Vs DUK3-0
28/04/24HDUK Vs Drita1-1
20/04/24ALiria Prizren Vs DUK0-0
14/04/24HDUK Vs Llapi1-1

GjilaniGjilani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/08/24HGJI Vs Ballkani1-1
10/08/24ALlapi Vs GJI1-1
25/05/24ADukagjini Vs GJI2-4
18/05/24HGJI Vs Drita2-1
12/05/24ALiria Prizren Vs GJI1-3
09/05/24HGJI Vs Llapi1-1
05/05/24AMalisheva Vs GJI0-0
28/04/24HGJI Vs Ballkani0-2
20/04/24HGJI Vs Feronikeli1-1
13/04/24APrishtina Vs GJI1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dukagjini
Dukagjini
Kosovo: Superliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL1.26
HomeWDDWL1.67
AwayLWLLL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%42%19%
AVG goals2.541.673.35
Over 1.5 %70%46%92%
Over 2.5 %46%25%65%
Over 3.5 %26%8%42%
Scored1.120.961.27
Conceded1.420.712.08
BTTS56%46%65%
Clean Sheet26%46%8%
Corners8.756.5011.00
Cards8.336.5012.00
Gjilani
Gjilani
Kosovo: Superliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDD1.24
HomeDLDWD1.54
AwayWDWWD0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%38%19%
AVG goals2.121.882.35
Over 1.5 %70%67%73%
Over 2.5 %32%21%42%
Over 3.5 %18%8%27%
Scored1.101.081.12
Conceded1.020.791.23
BTTS46%42%50%
Clean Sheet32%42%23%
Corners11.5012.0011.00
Cards8.5010.007.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DritaDrita3674
61%
2.1
5926+33
2.4
69%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3231.60.7
-
2BallkaniBallkani3660
44%
1.7
5940+19
2.8
72%
44%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.61.1
-
3MalishevaMalisheva3653
39%
1.5
4439+5
2.3
61%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.1
-
4GjilaniGjilani3651
36%
1.4
4847+1
2.6
75%
56%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.31.3
-
5FerizajFerizaj3650
39%
1.4
4247-5
2.5
69%
53%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
6PrishtinaPrishtina3648
31%
1.3
4236+6
2.2
61%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
4121.21.0
-
7LlapiLlapi3748
32%
1.3
4241+1
2.2
62%
41%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.1
-
8DukagjiniDukagjini3648
36%
1.3
3545-10
2.2
67%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.01.2
-
9SuharekaSuhareka3643
33%
1.2
4962-13
3.1
89%
72%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
10FeronikeliFeronikeli3616
8%
0.4
2562-37
2.4
67%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.71.7
-
11VushtrriaVushtrria11
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Kosovo: Superliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Superliga stats & trends →

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