The model favors an away win, with a 43% chance for Malisheva, a 30% chance for a draw and a 27% chance for Dukagjini. The expected total goals sit at 2.4, centring on a 2-goal match; the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 14.2% probability. Dukagjini, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 0.9 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Malisheva on the road averages 1.27 scored and 0.91 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 5.5 (96.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.6%), Under 4.5 (90.8%) and Away +2 handicap (89.5%). The home side’s recent unbeaten run of five matches, including a 2-2 draw with Gjilani, contrasts with Malisheva’s recent win, a 3-0 triumph over Feronikeli.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dukagjini win
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Malisheva win
43.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dukagjini
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.90
0.93
0.79
1.19
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.83
1.00
0.25
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.08
0.92
0.90
1.00
1.21
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Malisheva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malisheva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.27
1.86
1.21
1.69
1.31
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
-
-
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.19
1.80
1.50
1.27
0.91
vs Weaker (8)
2.50
1.12
2.00
0.50
3.00
1.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukagjini) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.8%
Under 1.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.3%
Under 2.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.5%
Under 3.5
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.7%
No
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-1
11.3%
0-0
10.6%
1-2
8.7%
0-2
8.5%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
6.6%
2-0
4.9%
Dukagjini goals ↓
Malisheva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
8.5%
3.8%
1.3%
1
8.2%
14%
8.7%
3.9%
1.3%
2
4.9%
6.6%
4.4%
2.0%
0.7%
3
1.7%
2.2%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dukagjini goals (down), columns = Malisheva goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Drita
1.83
Malisheva
1.64
Ballkani
1.61
Drenica Skënderaj
1.43
Dukagjini
1.42
Gjilani
1.42
Llapi
1.41
Prishtina
1.36
Feronikeli
1.04
Vushtrria
0.45
Dukagjini is 0.22 points worse than Malisheva in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ballkani
1.69
Malisheva
1.61
Prishtina
1.44
Drita
1.39
Drenica Skënderaj
1.31
Gjilani
1.31
Llapi
1.30
Dukagjini
1.17
Feronikeli
0.97
Vushtrria
0.42
Dukagjini is 0.44 goals worse than Malisheva in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Drita
0.97
Dukagjini
1.00
Ballkani
1.14
Gjilani
1.33
Llapi
1.35
Malisheva
1.39
Prishtina
1.42
Drenica Skënderaj
1.49
Feronikeli
1.68
Vushtrria
3.89
Dukagjini is 0.39 goals better than Malisheva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dukagjini or Draw
57.0%
Avg Implied -
27%
30%
43%
covers Dukagjini + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini or Malisheva
70.0%
Avg Implied -
27%
30%
43%
covers Dukagjini + Malisheva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Malisheva
73.0%
Avg Implied -
27%
30%
43%
covers Draw + Malisheva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dukagjini over/under 0.5
Over
64.0%
Under
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 1.5
Over
27.2%
Under
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 2.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 0.5
Over
74.1%
Under
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 1.5
Over
39.1%
Under
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 2.5
Over
15.4%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dukagjini, so a minus line means Dukagjini give that many goals of a start and Malisheva receive them. At -1, Dukagjini must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dukagjini win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dukagjini)
Dukagjini -2
3.0%
Draw -2
7.5%
Malisheva +2
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dukagjini)
Dukagjini -1
10.5%
Draw -1
16.5%
Malisheva +1
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dukagjini)
Dukagjini +1
57.0%
Draw +1
22.3%
Malisheva -1
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dukagjini)
Dukagjini +2
79.3%
Draw +2
13.2%
Malisheva -2
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dukagjini
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.40
0.50
0.21
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.17
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.46
0.50
0.30
0.50
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Malisheva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malisheva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.64
0.50
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.71
0.50
0.70
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.12
1.00
0.00
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukagjini) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.0%
Under 0.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.7%
Under 1.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.8%
Under 2.5
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dukagjini over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.9%
Under
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.9%
Under
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dukagjini
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.43
0.57
0.69
0.44
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.25
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.46
0.40
0.70
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Malisheva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malisheva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.63
1.21
0.71
0.94
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.48
1.30
0.80
0.64
0.18
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.75
1.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukagjini) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.3%
Under 0.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.1%
Under 1.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.7%
Under 2.5
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dukagjini over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.4%
Under
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.8%
Under
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (24)
€8m
BAL (26)
€7m
PRI (24)
€6m
MAL (19)
€5m
LLA (28)
€5m
GJI (16)
€4m
DUK (20)
€3m
FER (14)
€3m
DS (8)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
Dukagjini's squad is €2m less valuable than Malisheva's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PRI (10)
€4m
DRI (8)
€3m
BAL (7)
€3m
LLA (9)
€2m
GJI (6)
€2m
MAL (6)
€2m
DUK (7)
€2m
FER (7)
€1m
DS (5)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Dukagjini and Malisheva have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (8)
€2m
DRI (5)
€2m
MAL (4)
€1m
LLA (7)
€1m
GJI (3)
€1m
PRI (3)
€1m
DUK (5)
€1m
FER (2)
€0m
DS (1)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Dukagjini and Malisheva have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (11)
€3m
PRI (11)
€2m
BAL (11)
€2m
MAL (9)
€2m
LLA (12)
€2m
GJI (7)
€2m
DUK (8)
€1m
FER (5)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
DS (2)
€0m
Dukagjini's defence is €1m less valuable than Malisheva's (€1m vs €2m).
Kosovo: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Gjilani
Prishtina
Drita
Ballkani
Drenica Skënderaj
Feronikeli
Vushtrria
Llapi