The model favours an away win, with a 50% chance for Slatina, 28% for a draw and 22% for Dumbrăvița. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly open match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.4% probability. Dumbrăvița’s home form shows an average of one goal scored and one conceded against similar opposition, while Slatina, playing away, averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded versus comparable teams. The suggested selections are Under 3.5 with a 77% probability and Over 1.5 with 71.2%. Dumbrăvița has just come off a 0-1 loss to CSM Râmnicu Vâlcea, whereas Slatina remain unbeaten in their last five, having drawn 0-0 with FC Bacău. These figures paint a picture of a balanced contest where Slatina’s recent form and defensive solidity give them the edge, yet the match could still finish 1-1.
The pre-match favourite, Slatina, failed to deliver, with Dumbrăvița snatching a 2-1 victory. The model had tipped an away win at 50% probability, but that call was wrong. Dumbrăvița, coming off a defeat in their last five, managed to edge out the unbeaten Slatina, who had been on a DWDWW run. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 3.5 goals hit with a 77% chance, and Over 1.5 goals also hit at 71.2%. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, 13.4% probability, did not materialise, but the 0-2 outcome, 10.1% probability, was close. The final score of 2-1 confirmed the home win, overturning expectations.
Dumbrăviţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.89 | 1.00 | 2.25 | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 3.50 | 1.00 | 3.50 | - | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 22% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
Slatina| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.44 | 0.67 | 1.75 | 0.75 | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (8) | 1.62 | 0.75 | 1.75 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 56% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
| Slatina goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.9% | 12% | 10% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 13% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Dumbrăviţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.89 | 1.11 | 0.50 | 1.75 | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 3.00 | 0.50 | 3.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 1.00 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Slatina| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.56 | 0.22 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (8) | 0.62 | 0.25 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 89% (+57pp vs league) | |||||
Dumbrăviţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.44 | 0.78 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | - | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.43 | 0.86 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Slatina| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.89 | 0.44 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (8) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 77.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 71.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Dumbrăviţa| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/22 | A | 1-0 | |
| 01/10/22 | H | 1-0 | |
| 17/09/22 | A | 3-4 | |
| 10/09/22 | H | 2-4 | |
| 05/09/22 | A | 2-1 | |
| 29/08/22 | H | 0-3 | |
| 20/08/22 | A | 2-2 | |
| 13/08/22 | H | 1-2 | |
| 06/08/22 | A | 0-1 |
Slatina| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/22 | H | 2-0 | |
| 02/10/22 | A | 0-0 | |
| 17/09/22 | A | 0-1 | |
| 10/09/22 | H | 3-0 | |
| 03/09/22 | A | 2-1 | |
| 27/08/22 | H | 1-1 | |
| 20/08/22 | A | 1-1 | |
| 15/08/22 | H | 1-2 | |
| 06/08/22 | A | 0-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Politehnica Iasi | 29 | 60 | 59% | 2.1 | 50 | 22 | +28 | 2.5 | 69% | 52% | 31% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 28 | 49 | 50% | 1.8 | 48 | 36 | +12 | 3.0 | 86% | 57% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 3 | Oţelul | 29 | 49 | 48% | 1.7 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 1.9 | 52% | 28% | 10% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | - |
| 4 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 29 | 46 | 45% | 1.6 | 43 | 30 | +13 | 2.5 | 72% | 48% | 24% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 1.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | Brașov Steagul Renaște | 25 | 44 | 48% | 1.8 | 49 | 25 | +24 | 3.0 | 72% | 56% | 36% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | SCM Gloria Buzău | 29 | 42 | 34% | 1.4 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 2.3 | 66% | 34% | 28% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Unirea Dej | 29 | 40 | 31% | 1.4 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 2.3 | 76% | 45% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | - |
| 8 | Csikszereda | 25 | 39 | 44% | 1.6 | 37 | 24 | +13 | 2.4 | 76% | 56% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | Concordia | 25 | 39 | 48% | 1.6 | 30 | 23 | +7 | 2.1 | 52% | 40% | 16% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | - |
| 10 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 25 | 36 | 40% | 1.4 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 2.3 | 68% | 44% | 16% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | - |
| 11 | Unirea Slobozia | 25 | 34 | 32% | 1.4 | 37 | 28 | +9 | 2.6 | 64% | 52% | 36% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | - |
| 12 | Slatina | 25 | 34 | 32% | 1.4 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 1.4 | 48% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 13 | Metaloglobus | 27 | 34 | 33% | 1.3 | 31 | 29 | +2 | 2.2 | 63% | 44% | 15% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 14 | Dumbrăviţa | 25 | 33 | 40% | 1.3 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 3.1 | 84% | 68% | 36% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.7 | - |
| 15 | ACS Sirineasa | 25 | 32 | 40% | 1.3 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 2.8 | 68% | 52% | 32% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | - |
| 16 | Progresul Spartac | 27 | 31 | 26% | 1.1 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 2.6 | 63% | 48% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | - |
| 17 | Minaur Baia Mare | 25 | 22 | 16% | 0.9 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 2.2 | 68% | 36% | 8% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | - |
| 18 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 25 | 19 | 16% | 0.8 | 18 | 40 | -22 | 2.3 | 60% | 48% | 28% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 19 | Unirea Constanța | 24 | 18 | 25% | 0.8 | 20 | 71 | -51 | 3.8 | 83% | 71% | 38% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.0 | - |
| 20 | Ripensia Timisoara | 25 | 17 | 16% | 0.7 | 18 | 34 | -16 | 2.1 | 64% | 40% | 12% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.4 | - |